Niall Lyons Golf Betting Tips for the 2026 Mexico Open

Vidanta Vallarta, Mexico. Last year the two who fought out the playoff were chalk and cheese about how they went about it. Campbell ranked 73rd in driving distance to Potgieter's 5th. Potgieter ranked 76th in accuracy to Campbell's 5th.

The leader in strokes gained tee to green has won this event for the last three years on the trot. Jake Knapp gained his maiden tour victory two years ago in a similar fashion as to how Finau and Rahm won the previous two years. 

What all three have in common is they both hit the ball a long way off the tee and with others in contention such as Kurt Kitayama and Cameron Champ we can safely assume the course lends itself to the longer hitters.

A par 71 measuring close to 7500 yards suggests this will be dominated by the bigger hitters once again. With Paspalum fairways and greens a nod to form at Coco Beach and Corales could prove fruitful as well as results from San Antonio, another Norman designed course.

This is a course where length really pays and anyone who has prior form on Paspalum greens will be of particular interest. Long irons are also a big part of the equation here, similar to Torrey Pines.

Proximity stats from 175+ yards are worth a glance here as that's where the majority of approaches will come from.

Past Champions & Winning Score:

• 2025 - B.Campbell (-20)
• 2024 - J.Knapp (-19)
• 2023 - T.Finau (-24)
• 2022 - J.Rahm (-17)

Winners / Contenders Stats

Mexico Open Tips

Max Homa at 33/1 (Eight Places)

Max Homa has had a quietly good season sitting 53rd in the Fedex Rankings and may have been slightly overlooked by the bookmakers this week. Without pulling up any trees the Californian has put together a consistent Summer/Autumn period with only one missed cut in his last nine appearances. Runner up at the John Deere Classic has been the best of those efforts narrowly missing out to Chris Gotterup there at Deere Run. After the St Jude Homa returned after a six week break to finish 26th in Utah then 13th at the Baycurrent. His long game has been in really decent shape and he is one who, looking at the tables above, can put together a great tee to green week but also marry it up with a hot putter. There are a handful ahead of Homa in the market who are nowhere near him in this seasons rankings and it results in him being the best bet of the week. 

3pts each-way M.Homa  33/1  (1/5 8) General

Marco Penge at 25/1 (WIN)

It is difficult to leave Marco Penge off the list this week and even though personally I'm finding him a little challenging to get right there may not be many more suitable tracks for the Englishman than Vidanta Vallarta. Since returning to near full fitness in the late Summer Penge has scored reasonably well with a top 20 at the Open Championship, 6th at the British Masters, 18th in crans and 10th at the Biltmore. All parts of his game are in really decent shape without quite hitting the heights of 2025. Sitting 112th in the standings he really does have a fighting chance of breaking into the top 100 with his talent and I'd fancy him to do so. His iron play hasn't quite been on point in his last couple of starts but generally speaking he is a great long iron player which is important around here. He'll see this a big opportunity this week and I'd be surprised if he isn't in with a big chance teeing off at the weekend.

3pts WIN M.Penge  25/1 AK Bets

Blades Brown at 30/1 (Eight Places)

Max Gresyerman was forced to withdraw during round 2 last week which has now pushed him out to 103rd in the rankings. That is a precarious position but regardless I was very tempted to get involved seeing we have barely seen him at this price all year, never mind for a relatively weak field such as this. He withdrew in Mexico in 2024 before playing ok the following week so we can't rule out a good week despite the injury in Bermuda. It is probably too much of a risk to advise though. Blades Brown looks like a solid option here this week and I'll back the teenager to break through and land a PGA Tour victory at Vidanta. He hits the ball a long way and being solid with his long irons suggests this test should be perfect. Brown arrives here off a runner up finish in the Korn Ferry Tour Championship where he secured his PGA Tour card for 2027 and that should give him plenty of confidence heading to Mexico. The last time he played in this country was April in the Tulum Championship at Riviera Maya, another Paspalum venue, where he finished runner up. 3rd at Grand Reserve and 11th at Corales suggests this type of surface is favourable. The kids are doing pretty well on tour this year and Brown looks like another huge exciting prospect who is capable of getting on the board early. 

2pts each-way B.Brown 30/1  (1/5 8) General

Gordon Sargent at 60/1 (Eight Places)

Gordon Sargent was all the rage back in 2023 when he took to the US Masters as an Amateur but since turning professional last year things haven't been all too rosey. He struggled in the second half of last year and for large parts of this year it has been the same. His best two finishes on tour to date came this year in Puerto Rico and PuntaCana. 8th and 2nd in those two events are relevant as both are played on Paspalum that we see here in Mexico this week. He has played extremely well from tee to green on his last two starts and his iron play improving might just come at the perfect time on a track such as this. Sitting 133rd in the Fedex rankings he has plenty to play for over the coming weeks and this may prove his best chance.

1pt each-way G.Sargent  60/1  (1/5 8) Coral, Ladbrokes