Our first round leader selections at the Mexico Open, featuring a 70/1 shot with strong opening-round form at Vidanta.
Mexico OpenSee All Odds
Chan Kim at 70/1 (Five Places) - 1pt EW
Kim arrives off the back of a tied-sixth finish at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, where he shot 64s in the first and third rounds. The latter was the lowest score of the round, while the former was the second-lowest.
He has competed in the Mexico Open twice, finishing tied eighth in 2024 and tied 17th in 2025. He produced strong opening-round performances on both occasions, shooting a 66 in 2024 and a 68 in 2025.
Looking specifically at his PGA Tour first-round form, his last five finishes read 6-9-5-37-16. With his recent form and proven ability to start quickly at this event, Kim looks an interesting option in the FRL market.
Mexico OpenSee All Odds
Emiliano Grillo at 66/1 (Six Places) - 1pt EW
Despite a dip in form since his tied-seventh finish at the 3M Open in July, there is enough to suggest Grillo is worth a bet in the FRL market at Vidanta.
He missed the cut in two of his next three appearances after the 3M Open but has since recovered with two solid performances.
He sat tied 35th after round two of the Bank of Utah Championship and tied 13th after round two of the Bermuda Championship last week. Both tournaments ultimately saw him tail off, but his solid starts are encouraging.
Grillo ranked second for approach play at the Bank of Utah Championship and 33rd at the Bermuda Championship, while finishing inside the top 25 for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in both events. We will need to see his putter return to the form he showed in June and July for him to compete here, but putting skill is often less of a differentiator on Paspalum greens, and he has gained strokes putting every year he has played on this surface.
He ranks sixth in this field for first-round performance over the last six months. He shared the lead after round one of the Canadian Open in mid-June and was tied second after the opening round of the 3M Open a month later. Finishing sixth after round one last week and 17th the week before provides further encouragement that he can get involved early again here.
Mexico OpenSee All Odds
Jordan Smith at 45/1 (Five Places) - 1pt EW
Smith is coming off a tied-fourth finish, his second-best result of the season, and arrives at a course where his elite driving could give him an edge.
He ranks 15th on the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 34th for driving distance and ninth for greens in regulation. That combination of power off the tee and accuracy in finding greens could prove deadly at a course where his tee-to-green game will need to be firing.
As well as being a great fit for the course, Smith arrives in excellent first-round form, having recorded back-to-back second-place finishes after round one. He ranks ninth in this field for first-round performance over the last six months, while five of his last seven PGA Tour appearances have resulted in top-15 FRL finishes.
He has also shot 66 or lower in eight of his last 20 rounds (40%). To put that into perspective, he ranks fifth in this field for the percentage of rounds in which he has gained four or more strokes when looking at each player's last 20 rounds.
