
Niall Lyons takes an early look at the Masters in two weeks’ time – which players in the field hit all the key trends for success at Augusta?
The Masters 2025
There can be numerous trends that can be applied to the four majors in the golf season but with The Masters being played on the same venue every single year means that we have some reliable pointers as to who could contend each year.
Of course it's never as easy as whittling down the field via these avenues but it did point us towards Tommy Fleetwood last year who finished in a tie for 3rd place.
This year we shall spread the net a little wider, marking players against 10 trends in order of importance. The method is simple – if you don’t meet a trend you’re eliminated, if you hit the trend you stay in.
We’ll list out the players that remain in at every stage, right down to the TWO players who hit every trend in our quest to find the 2025 Masters winner.
At the bottom, you can see it in table form, showing which players stay in for the longest. The longer the green line goes on, the stronger their chances of slipping on that green jacket on Sunday 13th April.
Masters Betting Trends
- 26 of the last 27 winners made the cut the year before the won the Masters
- 15 of the last 17 winners had a finish of 22nd or better in the Masters
- 19 of the last 22 winners were 27 years of age or older
- 14 of the last 16 winners had four wins or more
- 14 of the last 16 winners had a win on USA soil within two years of winning the Masters
- 57 of the last 60 winners failed to defend their crown
- 23 of the last 25 winners came from the top 30 in the world rankings (or top 30 Data Golf rankings)
- 13 of the last 15 winners had a top six finish in a Major in the previous two years
- 15 of the last 16 winners ranked inside the top 50 in Driving Distance before winning
- 24 of the last 27 winners finished 38th or better in the year before winning
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These for me look the strongest pointers as to who could go well at this year’s Masters. For the golf ranking trend I will use Data Golf's current world rankings which is a lot more reliable than the current official system.
For any LIV golfers if their driving distance yardages for the season would be enough to get inside the top 50 on the PGA Tour I shall give them a pass for that trend.
Trend 1 - Made the Cut at the Last Masters
- Scheffler, Scottie
- McIlroy, Rory
- Aberg, Ludvig
- Morikawa, Collin
- Rahm, Jon
- DeChambeau, Bryson
- Schauffele, Xander
- Niemann, Joaquin
- Lowry, Shane
- Matsuyama, Hideki
- Cantlay, Patrick
- Fleetwood, Tommy
- Koepka, Brooks
- Hatton, Tyrrell
- Smith, Cameron
- Zalatoris, Will
- Bhatia, Akshay
- Finau, Tony
- Henley, Russell
- Straka, Sepp
- Conners, Corey
- Day, Jason
- Kim, Tom
- Lee, Min Woo
- Reed, Patrick
- Theegala, Sahith
- Fitzpatrick, Matt
- Scott, Adam
- Young, Cameron
- Hojgaard, Nicolai
- Homa, Max
- An, Byeong-Hun
- Kirk, Chris
- McCarthy, Denny
- Mickelson, Phil
- Willett, Danny
- Pavon, Matthieu
- Schenk, Adam
- Davis, Cameron
- Bradley, Keegan
- English, Harris
- Glover, Lucas
- Poston, J.T.
- Olazabal, José Maria
- Singh, Vijay
Trend 2 - Had a finish of 22nd or better in the Masters
- Scheffler, Scottie
- McIlroy, Rory
- Aberg, Ludvig
- Morikawa, Collin
- Rahm, Jon
- DeChambeau, Bryson
- Schauffele, Xander
- Niemann, Joaquin
- Lowry, Shane
- Matsuyama, Hideki
- Cantlay, Patrick
- Fleetwood, Tommy
- Koepka, Brooks
- Hatton, Tyrrell
- Smith, Cameron
- Zalatoris, Will
- Finau, Tony
- Henley, Russell
- Straka, Sepp
- Conners, Corey
- Day, Jason
- Kim, Tom
- Lee, Min Woo
- Reed, Patrick
- Theegala, Sahith
- Fitzpatrick, Matt
- Scott, Adam
- Young, Cameron
- Hojgaard, Nicolai
- Homa, Max
- An, Byeong-Hun
- Kirk, Chris
- Mickelson, Phil
- Willett, Danny
- Pavon, Matthieu
- Schenk, Adam
- Davis, Cameron
- Bradley, Keegan
- English, Harris
- Glover, Lucas
- Olazabal, José Maria
- Singh, Vijay
Trend 3 - 19 of the last 22 winners were 27 years of age or older
- Scheffler, Scottie
- McIlroy, Rory
- Morikawa, Collin
- Rahm, Jon
- DeChambeau, Bryson
- Schauffele, Xander
- Lowry, Shane
- Matsuyama, Hideki
- Cantlay, Patrick
- Fleetwood, Tommy
- Koepka, Brooks
- Hatton, Tyrrell
- Smith, Cameron
- Zalatoris, Will
- Finau, Tony
- Henley, Russell
- Straka, Sepp
- Conners, Corey
- Day, Jason
- Reed, Patrick
- Fitzpatrick, Matt
- Scott, Adam
- Homa, Max
- An, Byeong-Hun
- Kirk, Chris
- Mickelson, Phil
- Willett, Danny
- Pavon, Matthieu
- Schenk, Adam
- Davis, Cameron
- Bradley, Keegan
- English, Harris
- Glover, Lucas
- Olazabal, José Maria
- Singh, Vijay
Trend 4 - 14 of the last 16 winners had four wins or more
- Scheffler, Scottie
- McIlroy, Rory
- Morikawa, Collin
- Rahm, Jon
- DeChambeau, Bryson
- Schauffele, Xander
- Lowry, Shane
- Matsuyama, Hideki
- Cantlay, Patrick
- Fleetwood, Tommy
- Koepka, Brooks
- Hatton, Tyrrell
- Smith, Cameron
- Finau, Tony
- Henley, Russell
- Day, Jason
- Reed, Patrick
- Fitzpatrick, Matt
- Scott, Adam
- Homa, Max
- Kirk, Chris
- Mickelson, Phil
- Willett, Danny
- Bradley, Keegan
- English, Harris
- Glover, Lucas
- Olazabal, José Maria
- Singh, Vijay
Trend 5 - 14 of the last 16 winners had a win on USA soil within two years of winning the Masters
- Scheffler, Scottie
- McIlroy, Rory
- Rahm, Jon
- DeChambeau, Bryson
- Schauffele, Xander
- Lowry, Shane
- Matsuyama, Hideki
- Koepka, Brooks
- Hatton, Tyrrell
- Smith, Cameron
- Henley, Russell
- Day, Jason
- Fitzpatrick, Matt
- Kirk, Chris
- Bradley, Keegan
- English, Harris
- Glover, Lucas
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Trend 6 - 57 of the last 60 winners failed to defend their crown
- McIlroy, Rory
- Rahm, Jon
- DeChambeau, Bryson
- Schauffele, Xander
- Lowry, Shane
- Matsuyama, Hideki
- Koepka, Brooks
- Hatton, Tyrrell
- Smith, Cameron
- Henley, Russell
- Day, Jason
- Fitzpatrick, Matt
- Kirk, Chris
- Bradley, Keegan
- English, Harris
- Glover, Lucas
Trend 7 - 23 of the last 25 winners came from the top 30 in the world rankings (or top 30 Data Golf rankings)
- McIlroy, Rory
- Rahm, Jon
- DeChambeau, Bryson
- Schauffele, Xander
- Lowry, Shane
- Matsuyama, Hideki
- Hatton, Tyrrell
- Day, Jason
- Bradley, Keegan
- Glover, Lucas
Trend 8 - 13 of the last 15 winners had a top six finish in a Major in the previous two years
- McIlroy, Rory
- Rahm, Jon
- DeChambeau, Bryson
- Schauffele, Xander
- Lowry, Shane
- Matsuyama, Hideki
- Day, Jason
Trend 9 - 15 of the last 16 winners ranked inside the top 50 in Driving Distance before winning
- McIlroy, Rory
- Rahm, Jon
- DeChambeau, Bryson
Trend 10 - 24 of the last 27 winners finished 38th or better in the year before winning
- McIlroy, Rory
- DeChambeau, Bryson
So, there you have it/ Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy stand out from the pack when it comes to the trends and either are capable of slipping on the green jacket in a few weeks.
DeChambeau threatened for a long way last year but ultimately it was the work around the greens that made it a tall order for him over the weekend.
That is what worries me about Bryson around here that his very rigid action around the greens here will result in untimely dropped shots. He will no doubt contend a handful more of these Masters but whether he will have the game good enough to win one is another matter.
All roads lead to the Irishman and a green blazer on his back will go down as one of the most special historical images in the sport. If trends are your way to finding the winner of the Masters Rory McIlroy is the first and last place to start.
Rors - it's about time!
| Player | Made Cut 2024 | 22nd or Better | 27+ | 4 wins | USA Win | Defending Champion | Top 30 | Top 6 Major | Top 50 DD | 38th or Better 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scheffler, Scottie | ||||||||||
| McIlroy, Rory | → | → | → | → | → | → | → | → | → | → |
| Aberg, Ludvig | ||||||||||
| Morikawa, Collin | ||||||||||
| Rahm, Jon | ||||||||||
| DeChambeau, Bryson | → | → | → | → | → | → | → | → | → | → |
| Schauffele, Xander | ||||||||||
| Niemann, Joaquin | ||||||||||
| Lowry, Shane | ||||||||||
| Matsuyama, Hideki | ||||||||||
| Cantlay, Patrick | ||||||||||
| Fleetwood, Tommy | ||||||||||
| Hovland, Viktor | ||||||||||
| Koepka, Brooks | ||||||||||
| Spieth, Jordan | ||||||||||
| Thomas, Justin | ||||||||||
| Hatton, Tyrrell | ||||||||||
| Smith, Cameron | ||||||||||
| Zalatoris, Will | ||||||||||
| Bhatia, Akshay | ||||||||||
| Finau, Tony | ||||||||||
| Henley, Russell | ||||||||||
| Straka, Sepp | ||||||||||
| MacIntyre, Robert | ||||||||||
| Conners, Corey | ||||||||||
| Day, Jason | ||||||||||
| Kim, Tom | ||||||||||
| Lee, Min Woo | ||||||||||
| Clark, Wyndham | ||||||||||
| Garcia, Sergio | ||||||||||
| Im, Sung Jae | ||||||||||
| Johnson, Dustin | ||||||||||
| Reed, Patrick | ||||||||||
| Rose, Justin | ||||||||||
| Theegala, Sahith | ||||||||||
| Burns, Sam | ||||||||||
| Fitzpatrick, Matt | ||||||||||
| Scott, Adam | ||||||||||
| Young, Cameron | ||||||||||
| Detry, Thomas | ||||||||||
| Hojgaard, Rasmus | ||||||||||
| McNealy, Maverick | ||||||||||
| Berger, Daniel | ||||||||||
| Hojgaard, Nicolai | ||||||||||
| Homa, Max | ||||||||||
| Thompson, Davis | ||||||||||
| Horschel, Billy | ||||||||||
| Greyserman, Max | ||||||||||
| Pendrith, Taylor | ||||||||||
| Rai, Aaron | ||||||||||
| An, Byeong-Hun | ||||||||||
| Harman, Brian | ||||||||||
| Kirk, Chris | ||||||||||
| McCarthy, Denny | ||||||||||
| Mickelson, Phil | ||||||||||
| Willett, Danny | ||||||||||
| Pavon, Matthieu | ||||||||||
| Schenk, Adam | ||||||||||
| Davis, Cameron | ||||||||||
| Bezuidenhout, Christiaan | ||||||||||
| Dunlap, Nick | ||||||||||
| Watson, Bubba | ||||||||||
| Bradley, Keegan | ||||||||||
| English, Harris | ||||||||||
| Glover, Lucas | ||||||||||
| Lawrence, Thriston | ||||||||||
| Vegas, Jhonattan | ||||||||||
| Echavarria, Nico | ||||||||||
| Eckroat, Austin | ||||||||||
| McCarty, Matt | ||||||||||
| Poston, J.T. | ||||||||||
| Riley, Davis | ||||||||||
| Taylor, Nick | ||||||||||
| Yu, Kevin | ||||||||||
| Highsmith, Joe | ||||||||||
| Jaeger, Stephan | ||||||||||
| Canter, Laurie | ||||||||||
| Kizzire, Patton | ||||||||||
| Campos, Rafael | ||||||||||
| Hoge, Tom | ||||||||||
| Schwartzel, Charl | ||||||||||
| Ballester, Jose Luis | ||||||||||
| Cabrera, Angel | ||||||||||
| Langer, Bernhard | ||||||||||
| Tai, Hiroshi | ||||||||||
| Campbell, Brian | ||||||||||
| Couples, Fred | ||||||||||
| Johnson, Zach | ||||||||||
| Olazabal, José Maria | ||||||||||
| Singh, Vijay | ||||||||||
| Weir, Mike | ||||||||||
| Beck, Evan | ||||||||||
| Hastings, Justin | ||||||||||
| Kent, Noah |








