Our golf expert has six tips for The Northern Trust
The Northern Trust
We've got plenty of ammunition to go to war with this week with a host of events having been held at the TPC Boston throughout the last 20 years. The Dell Technology and Deutsche Bank are the two events we'll be looking to for some history. Dechambeau was the last winner on the tour here in 2018 holding off Justin Rose. McIlroy has won here twice on a course where previous form is usually a positive. The most notable aspect from my research is that the approach shot distribution is heavily weighted in favour of those who perform well from 200 yards+.
My analysis starts with my biggest bet of the week and tournament favourite Bryson Dechambeau. He won here back in 2018 and although turns up with a totally different game holds all the aces to unlock the key to TPC Boston. As I said approach play from 200+ looks a stat to study, but whilst many will be struggling to hit greens from that yardage, Bryson should be 30-40 yards closer compared to the majority of the field. We've long since talked about the effect a massive ball off the tee has on the game, and I fully expect Bryson's length to make a significant impact on the game for the short term. His finishes have been spectacular of late and he landed his first top 5 in a Major Championship at Harding Park two weeks ago. Bypassing personal bests should be the norm for Bryson over the next 12 months and a Fedex win could be just around the corner. He will have a few driveable par 4s to go at and the par 5s will be well within his reach also. He went very well in the playoffs in 2018 but a strong performance over the next few weeks could see him head to East Lake with a mighty chance with the handicap format back in play. The field is strong but slight negatives remain around a handful of the market principles whilst there are simply no negatives on what Bryson is on the verge of achieving.
3pts WIN B.Dechambeau 12/1
One of the stronger candidates in the 200+ category is Hideki Matsuyama. In the last 24 rounds Hideki ranks 20th in proximity from 200+, 12th from 175-200 and 13th from 150-175. These are the areas tested most this week and Hideki is excelling in those departments. As ever, the challenge will be on the greens and whether Hideki can get the flat stick rolling. It's worth noting he gained 1.4 strokes on the greens last time out at the PGA and lost a stroke approaching the green. That is not usually the case for Hideki and we can expect a much better approach game this time around. The pause at the top of the backswing is being faded out and I do feel that will reap rewards sooner rather than later.
1.5pts each-way H.Matsuyama 45/1 (1/5 8 places)
It'd be foolish to ignore the performance of Sungjae Im last week finishing 9th at the Wyndham. The Korean superstar had gone off the boil after a promising finish at the restart finishing top 10 in the Charles Schwab. 69-64-66-65 is a superb run of figures though last week and we can assume he is back to somewhere near his best. He got off the mark in fine style at the Honda earlier in the year and surely it won't be long before we see him in the winners enclosure again. 3rd place at another Palmer design at Bayhill is a fair positive heading into this week. A first timer at the track and could take to it. At 60/1 and favourable place terms it certainly looks worth the risk.
1pt each-way S.Im 60/1 (1/5 8 places)
Since ditching the Honma manufacturer Justin Rose has saw an upward trend in results. Of course new clubs often breed some inconsistency so a few missed cuts can be explained if not forgiven. He finished 3rd at the Charles Schwab, 14th at the Heritage and 9th at the PGA two weeks ago. They are some very positive results and hints at a return to form for the Englishman who has slipped to his lowest world ranking in over 8 years. Nevertheless we know what he is capable of, especially here where he finished 2nd en route to winning the Fedex in 2018. He sits a top the rankings, alongside Rory on this Bentgrass surface with 7 wins in his career. This course usually produces high calibre winners and Rose would fit the bill. At 66/1 I'm quite happy to play.
1pt each-way J.Rose 66/1 (1/5 6 places)
Victor Hovland lines up this week at a top price of 75/1 and that simply has to be gobbled up. Give it 12 months or so and I can see these sorts of numbers being a distant memory. Give it a few more years when we've maybe seen the best of McIlroy and Thomas etc and Hovland along with Morikawa could be towards the head of the markets. His short game remains an issue but something he is working on. Plenty of the worlds best have had issues with certain elements of their game but when they are firing they can win anything. Hovland has still to show us exactly what he is capable of but I have been mighty impressed with what I've seen to date. His long game on display at the Workday was a thing of beauty and I expect him to make hay on courses where being long and straight is a distinct advantage. That's the case here and simply looks too big of a number to me.
0.75pt each-way V.Hovland 75/1 (1/4 5 places)
I'll finish with a smaller bet on Shane Lowry. The Irishman isn't doing a whole pile wrong of late and arrives this week in the state most renowned for Irish-American culture. He can almost feel at home here and should he contend over the weekend he'll miss out on the Irish contingent over there cheering him on. Nevertheless this is his first outing at TPC Boston and the significance of 23% of the Boston population claiming Irish ancestry can't be downplayed. Rory has won here twice as well. The bigger positive remains on his approach play from 200+ ranking 3rd in the field in that category in the last 24 rounds. He suffered again at the PGA on and around the greens which isn't like him. Should his short game return he knows how to win the biggest events. Of the others Grillo and Woodland were the toughest to leave off the staking plan.
0.75pt each-way S.Lowry 100/1 (1/5 7 places)
