Golf betting expert Niall Lyons has all the best bets for this week's major at Erin Hills in Wisconsin.
The General Election is over for another a few weeks at least and we can finally turn our attention to this year’s second major. It's too long of a wait between the years first major and the second but the time is finally upon us and we can pour over everything we need to in order to try and find a potential winner of a Championship steeped in history and intrigue.
Erin Hills in Wisconsin is the venue and looking at the course it looks one of the most spectacular venues we've seen in recent years. It takes the mould of most recent US Open / PGA courses with a manufactured links type style. This is the direction these majors have gone in the past number of years and it makes for fascinating viewing. The potential for a runaway victor is reduced as all the golfers will at some time struggle with the undulating fairways and greens.
As ever with a US Open long game will be important. Stray off these fairways and you'll find yourself in dodgy, sidehill lies if you're lucky. The unlucky ones will find deep deep cabbage which will translate to at least one penalty shot. On the other hand, everybody will miss greens. Many are raised surfaces with run offs either side and it will be highly important to control distance with your approach shots. Pins will be placed in some precarious positions as usual to grant the USGA the standard level of publicity.
Nothing is easy at a US Open venue and this week will prove no different. Looking back to the 2011 US Amateur which was held at a relatively young Erin Hills, it played very firm and fast. Wind also played havoc with approach / chip shots and balls rolled off greens regularly if you short sided yourself. If the same conditions play out this week we will see the firm conditions heading towards the Shinnecock debacle all those years ago. It doesn't take a lot of wind to get this course playing very difficult around the greens. Not a lot of wind is forecast but the 10-15mph will cause havoc when you get closer to the greens.
The run offs will play a huge part as the week progresses and I'm sure the average greens in regulation at tallies at this Championship will be even lower than usual. That makes a tidy short game essential to score. Overall, I believe if the golfers do their homework they shouldn't find too much trouble off the tee. Find the rough and you'll need a lot of lead on the pencil to fill in the scorecard. Caddies will be important for lines of sight off the tee and players will lean on their right hand man a shade more often than usual. It is after the tee shot that I believe holds the key to winning the Championship. Those able to flight their ball low and high, and hold it off against winds in both directions which will gain advantage. The tidy short game to marry that is a dream combination for Erin Hills.
Tournament favourite and runaway world number 1 Dustin Johnson arrives at the years second major as a popular choice. When on his game he proves to be impossible to beat. The last number of weeks have proven to be disappointing for Dustin with a few chances at winning spurned then a missed cut at the Memorial. His attention will be geared towards this tournament however and no one would be surprised to see him contend even if he's not at 100%. I do think his short game will come under pressure though and for that reason I don't fancy taking any single figures.
I have flirted with backing McIlroy all week and I've decided to hold back. He won his first major with barely any competitive golf in the lead up so I am not worried about his lack of tournament golf recently. The best preparation for Rory is a guessing game and a few weeks in the sun followed by a couple of rounds of golf near his hometown last week could be just the tonic he needs after a lay off. He should like this type of test and the greens will suit. He putts remarkably well on the purest of surfaces. Augusta is the exception as the slopes around the holes there cause him problems. In Dubai he relishes the smooth fast surfaces and these greens at Erin Hills will be similar. I worry slightly about his play around the green and that puts me off more than anything.
Pin positions will be placed in some high areas of the greens with run offs close by and Rory will need to have a perfect touch in order to avoid mistakes. That has been missing this last 6 months and it is just enough to put me off investing. Jordan Spieth arrives in fine form and nothing has convinced me otherwise that it will be him that ticks off the most majors in his career of this current crop of top golfers. Therefore, the 14/1 is tempting also but with Rory saying he is getting little run out off the tee I feel Spieth could be stretched lengthwise.
It leaves me with my top bet on JASON DAY to land his second major in the same state that he won his first. Whistling Straits in Wisconsin was made for Jason and coming back to these parts can only be seen as a positive. The same 'type' of course awaits this week with that rugged landscape becoming the norm in these US Opens and PGA events. Day is in a better place mentally than what he was for the first part of this year where his results were erratic. His mother is being treated successfully and a happier Jason Day is now taking to the fairways. None more so was this evident when he was beaten in a playoff a few weeks back in the Byron Nelson. This was back to the golf Jason was playing in the middle of last year and if he is heading towards that form again we could be looking at another major victory.
He ticks all the boxes. Length off the tee, ability to hold his ball up against the wind and a tidy short game. He contended and finished 1 shot out of the playoff in the 2015 Open Championship. That week the wind played havoc with approach play and shots around the greens. I believe similar conditions await. The wind will be nowhere near as strong but I believe it's impact will be a lot more than expected. Two runner up spots and a further 3 top tens at this event in the past 6 years shows he has everything in his locker to contend these events. Ranks no1 in Strokes gained around the green which I believe will be highly important.
The second string to our punting bow is South African LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN. Louis has gone on an incredible run of 21 made cuts on the trot dating back to last years Open Championship. That is very impressive for somebody who although he has an impressive record in major championships, still misses plenty of cuts in them. This time around I believe it will be different and Erin Hills should suit all aspects of his game. He was another who contended that 2015 Open Championship eventually going down in a playoff.
His recent form suggests he is primed to win his second major. Runner up at Sawgrass was followed by a top 20 at the Byron Nelson and if he can avoid the one bad round he had at Chambers Bay then this could prove to be a much more successful tournament. He finished tied 2nd at Chambers Bay despite being out the back with the washing on day one. 2 other runner up spots and his Open win back in 2010 is the evidence that Louis is a major contender in these events when in form. Of those at bigger prices he appeals the most.
It becomes a bit more difficult after that to narrow down my search. Another list of roughly ten golfers interest me, mostly at 3 figure odds also. Who to go with is the million dollar question. SHANE LOWRY makes the grade. His golf stateside has been somewhat of a surprise to me down the last year or two. I considered him very talented but he has gone beyond my early expectations of him. Performances this season have been quite impressive. 33rd at Torrey Pines was followed by top 20s at Phoenix and Pebble Beach.
A recent final day surge at Wentworth secured him a top ten which was followed by an impressive top 20 finish at the Memorial. That performance is significant as Muirfield is definitely somewhere that requires an ounce of strategy, despite what Jon Rahm might think. He has the credentials for a course like this. He played well for 60 odd holes last year before succumbing to the brilliance of Dustin Johnson. Links experience back home coupled with a solid approach and short game make Lowry a bet this week. As ever, his putter will hold the key between a top 20 and a challenge for first. Streaky is an understatement and it will take Shane to have some confidence in the flat stick to contend. That being said, it's a risk worth taking.
MATTHEW FITZPATRICK enjoys his fair share of inconsistent golf but when he fires on all cylinders he can compete with the best. Just how good this lad is I don't think has dawned on anyone quite yet and I don't believe it will be far away when we see him regularly contend Major Championships. What is worth noting is that Fitzpatrick won on a course every bit as long as this in last years DP World Tour Championship in Dubai. 12th at Wentworth and 2nd LTO at the Nordea without remotely playing anywhere near his best suggest Fitzpatrick is playing well enough.
This lad will prove to be a much better punt over the years than the likes of Casey, Donald and Westwood in the English camp and three figure prices must always be considered. His rise to the top of the game has been very fast and I believe that will continue. He can hit the ball a fair way despite a short mechanical swing. His putting is no doubt streaky and we will need him to hit the ground running on the greens early in the week. McIlroy came on the scene and won a few majors on the bridle and I firmly believe Fitzpatrick has it in him to find a course easy while the rest struggle. It could still be a year or two too early for him but I am prepared to take the chance.
WEBB SIMPSON is certainly worth a small play. He has shown form for most of this year and with the flat stick performing once again he must have an outside squeak. He won his US Open at a more traditional layout we were used to seeing in the 80s and 90s. That trend has changed however the nature of the tournament hasn't. A tidy long game and ability to hole plenty of par putts i still the nature of the day and given that Simpson ranks in the top20 this year in stats around the green I think the 150/1 on offer is generous enough for a play. Top 20s at Harbour Town and Sawgrass is where you'd expect his tidy game to translate. Same at the Dean and Deluca where he notched a top 5. On courses where he expects to play well he seems to be delivering and with the experience of winning one of these events before I wouldn't put it past him landing another.
Of the golfers left off my staking plan I worry the most about Kevin Kisner. He hits a mighty straight golf ball but I wonder if he'll struggle with the length of the golf course. His short game is impeccable also and he has always been on my mind for this event all year. His price has been malnourished over the last few weeks and I can't advise at those odds. Lingmerth went well in this state a few years ago and has an all round solid game to go well. McDowell, Leishman and Reed are another bunch that I couldn't put people of backing.
