Saturday ITV Racing Tips & Preview

The loss of Herculean with a bad scope has deprived this race of a great deal of interest and competition and perhaps left the door open for NELSON (Best price 4-6) to complete a hat-trick. The Frankel colt looks a pretty straightforward conveyance and it will be somewhat of a surprise if Ryan Moore doesn’t allow him to bowl along in front and utilise his expansive stride which was seen to good effect at Leopardstown last time.

Clemmie sidestepped the Moyglare Stakes at the Curragh earlier this month because of deep conditions so it will be interesting to see if she is allowed to take her chance on ground which was deemed too soft for the absent Heartache. Stall 13 looks tricky for DIFFERENT LEAGUE (Best price 7-1) but the French raider looks a tall price given she was impressive in the Albany at Royal Ascot where Clemmie finished well in arrears. Admittedly, the Ballydoyle representative has improved since, but the selection has herself run very well in the Prix Morny, a race which has worked out pretty well since, and looks a value alternative to the likely favourite. 

Unfortunately has proved a revelation on his forays to the continent this summer with the headgear applied and it will be interesting if he can continue his progression on British soil today. His form is beginning to stack up well and his victory in the Prix Morny last time reads very well. However, SANDS OF MALI (Best price 4-1) is going forward at a rapid rate himself judged on his impressive Gimcrack Stakes romp and he could be the answer with his effectiveness on easy ground confirmed. His penultimate win on very soft ground at Nottingham has thrown up subsequent winners and a smooth defeat of Invincible Army last time was enhanced by that horse’s creditable performance in last weekend’s Mill Reef.

Connections of BIG COUNTRY (Best price 12-1) have long held the view that the imposing gelding will be a Group horse in time. Some of his efforts this season have certainly endorsed that opinion and he has the opportunity to prove that nine furlongs with some cut in the ground are his optimum conditions. His rider can choose where to go from stall 17 and the likelihood of a genuine gallop should suit a horse with a big stride who arguably hit the front too soon when beaten by Frontiersman over 12 furlongs at this venue back in May. 

CARRY ON DERYCK (Best price 28-1) has run twice over this trip on the Rowley Mile and has finished runner-up on both occasions. The lightly-raced five-year-old was a fine second to Spark Plug in last year’s renewal of this race before chasing home Muffri’Ha who enhanced her excellent track record with victory here yesterday. Both of those efforts were sound enough to suggest Carry On Deryck may reach the frame at a big price with some firms offering enticing enhanced place terms.

MUNTADAB (Best price 8-1) hasn’t tackled a mile since July 2016 but there is no reason to suggest he can’t make an impact now he returns to eight furlongs. A recent course victory over seven furlongs was achieved in authoritative fashion from the front before the selection narrowly failed to follow up at Doncaster, performances which indicate he is in rude health at present. It looked difficult to make ground at Haydock yesterday under testing conditions and soft-ground lover Muntadab could produce another big display if sitting close to the front.

There was a huge inclination to side with the improving three-year-old Mayleaf Shine here, especially as the handicapper may not yet have her measure. A length defeat of SOIE D’LEAU (Best price 9-1) over course and distance three weeks ago was further evidence Iain Jardine’s speedster is well suited by deep ground and her handler is sure to have had his eye on a follow up at Ayr or today’s venue under similar circumstances. However, the daughter of Mayson has been found in the market and, at twice the price, I’m going to side with Soie D’Leau who may well have moved forward again from a confidence booster at Leicester earlier in the week. This time of year has been kind to the five-year-old in the past with seven runs in September and October yielding three wins and a second place.

Having fancied JOHNNY BARNES (Best price 7-1) to run a big race at Ayr last weekend I had better stay loyal to John Gosden’s versatile handicapper today. Last week’s theory revolved around siding with a horse which boasts proven stamina at seven furlongs as many of the Ayr Gold Cups run recently have required a winner to have won over further than the six furlongs contested.  Johnny Barnes fits that criteria having won tidily in a fast time at Goodwood last month, a race which is already throwing up its fair share of winners with the runner-up, Burnt Sugar, going on to comprehensively land a competitive Leopardstown handicap next time. Fifth-home Masham Star also scored in a strongly-contested handicap next time and Johnny Barnes looks capable of making his impact on today’s rearranged feature. The only caveat is stall 17, but lord knows if that is a positive or a negative given the state of today’s ground.