Cheltenham Arkle Chase 2021: Tips, Runners & Prediction

Arkle Chase Tips

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The Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival is set to be a high-class and hugely informative contest with three exceptional novices putting their unbeaten records on the line and it is shaping up to be one of the best races of the four-day blockbuster meeting. Not only is this prestigious prize the first instalment of Grade 1 action over fences, but it has been won by some of the greatest horses in the modern era, particularly over the past decade, or so, with the roll of honour including the likes of Sprinter Sacre, Un De Sceaux, Douvan and Altior. 

This year’s renewal is headed by last season’s Supreme winner Shishkin who has been ante-post favourite for this race pretty much all season. He has looked every inch a top-class candidate in the manner in which he stamped his authority on useful opposition when winning his three starts over fences and it’s hard to resist the allure of Nicky Henderson’s seven-year-old who has the untapped potential to become a superstar two-mile chaser. He’s the rightful favourite and ticks all of the main trends for Tuesday’s event and, undeniably, is hard to oppose. However, a few of his main protagonists will ensure he doesn’t get his own way of things as it’s going to be a staggering gallop from pillar-to-post with the likelihood of Dan Skelton’s bold front-running Allmankind expected to go forward, who clearly adds a fascinating element to the race.

Initially, it’s often difficult for those who make the transition from the juvenile hurdle division to novice chasing, but Dan Skelton’s speedball has flourished in that regard, winning all three of his starts in this sphere including the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown back in December. He has rightfully earned his place in the line-up at Cheltenham and currently sits third favourite. However, there are a couple of caveats. Firstly, he is prone to being quite low at his fences and he lacked conviction at a few of his obstacles in the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices’ Chase, including when taking the routes of the second last. To his credit, though, I liked the way he kept on strongly afterwards to widen the gap from the second placed horse Sky Pirate, who is a good horse in his own right, to win by thirteen lengths. 

My second minor concern is whether he can maintain a relentless gallop in a race of this calibre at Cheltenham. Let’s not forget, he attempted similar tactics twice at this venue last season and ultimately suffered the consequences, finishing third on each occasion. There’s no denying he’s a much better chaser than a hurdler and his profile supports that statement, but it’s possible to see him setting the race up for one of his market rivals and if any errors creep into the jumping department like the last day, it could end his chance in the blink of an eye. Next up, we have second-favourite and the Willie Mullins-trained Energumene, who could provide greater competition to the market leader. I have been so impressed with the seven-year-old this season, who has easily taken care of useful opposition since making the switch to larger obstacles, notably, against Captain Guinness. 

He established his credentials when beating a top-class field in the Grade 1 Irish Arkle Novice Chase by ten-lengths last-time-out and impressed on the clock. His trainer, Willie Mullins, has won four of the last six renewals so his main contender has to be strongly respected on that account. The only minor negative I have with him, though, is the fact that he has yet to have encountered better ground in this discipline but it would come as a surprise were he to not handle a better surface judged on the proficiency he has displayed to this point. At this stage, he’s also second-favourite for the Marsh Novices' Chase behind Envoi Allen and would have leading claims in the opener on Thursday if he did take up that option, but it feels as though connections are leaning towards here and although this will prove a much sterner test to his credentials, he remains one to be positive about as connections aren’t running scared of Shishkin and manifestly have a good inkling as to what is required to win this race. 

Last year’s Champion Hurdle third, Darver Star, was below-par behind Energumene when last seen but is better than that and his second in the Racing Post Novice Chase on his penultimate outing was a fair effort, while the winner of that race, Franco De Port, is now a proven Grade 1 winner over fences. I’m inclined to give the former the benefit of the doubt on the back of a disappointing seventh in the Irish Arkle, where the ground was too soft for him. Besides Shishkin’s Supreme Novice Hurdle win last year, Gavin Cromwell’s charge has just about the strongest hurdles form on display.

He was a fine third in last year’s Champion Hurdle on ground too slow and pushed this year’s favourite for that race, Honeysuckle, to within half-a-length in the Irish Champion Hurdle. To further strengthen the form lines, the winner comfortably landed this year’s renewal. His third in the 2019 Royal Bond behind Envoi Allen was another excellent effort to suggest he could go well at huge odds. His stablemate at the Willie Mullins yard, Blackbow, was held in high regard a few years back and looked impressive on chase debut at Navan before falling on his next start and then twice finishing in the money behind Energumene. 

Another player in this division is Henry De Bromhead’s Captain Guinness who was unfortunate to be brought down in last year’s Supreme but has mixed form over fences, which is shown in his form figures of P12F. He has always appeared to be a horse with great talent and, although Henry De Bromhead’s charge can't be backed with any confidence at the minute, he could have the race run to suit and this has been his long-term project. His form figures over fences have expressed mixed signals but if that latest fall hasn’t knocked his confidence, he could enter the picture, particularly if the ground comes up good.

Arkle Prediction:

Undeniably, it would be a huge shock if one of the big three at the head of the market doesn’t take this contest, but there are plenty of other high-class contenders who make each-way appeal at double-figure odds. As it stands, though, I’m finding it very difficult to split the top-two in the market, who are exceptional racehorses but I’m going to chance ENERGUMENE (best price 5-2) from a win perspective to ruffle a few feathers. It wouldn’t be essential for him to go forward given his natural pace and speed, which should enable him to be fast enough for two miles around this course and Willie Mullins has farmed this prize in recent times having trained the winner in four of the last six renewals. We have to factor into some degree that his seven-year-old has no course experience, but he wouldn’t be the first horse to win on first visit to the venue and remains a formidable prospect at this level with improvement forthcoming.

You could throw a blanket over the remainder of the field to fill the frame, not least Captain Guinness, Blackbow, Embittered, Sky Pirate who have all got each-way claims. At an even bigger price, though, Darver Star (best price 33-1) makes some each-way appeal, particularly if you can get four places on the day. It’s worth bearing in mind that all of the last 20 winners were aged between five and eight, so he has this statistic to overcome (aged 9) but, nevertheless, he’s a class horse in his own right. Coincidentally, he’s also entered in the Marsh, but if connections decide to take this route, he’s just too big in the betting and may be worth an each-way interest against the market leaders with most firms offering non-runner no-bet.

Arkle Favourite

Shishkin is currently evens to secure a seventh Arkle Chase for trainer Nicky Henderson. The seven-year-old has an unbeaten record over fences and heads into the Arkle with the backing of 51% of oddschecker punters who have placed bets in the last month.

At 9/4, Energumene is Shishkin’s most likely challenger and is three from three over in chases this season. Trained by Willie Mullins, Energumene has been backed by 28% of oddschecker punters to turn over Shishkin. With over 75% of bets between them, Shishkin and Energumene are expected to dominate the rest of the field, however, at 15/2 Allmankind is the most fancied outsider.

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• Shishkin 1/1
• Energumene 9/4
• Allmankind 15/2
• Captain Guinness 16/1
• Franco De Port 20/1

Arkle Runners

There are currently 34 entries for the 2021 Arkle Chase. Full ante-post betting can be found here.

Arkle Winners