Epsom Derby

Epsom Derby Tips

The famous Classic is almost upon us and it’s been an eventful build up to the race after Aidan O’Brien chose to only enter Bolshoi Ballet in the race. Moreover, Adam Kirby was replaced by Frankie Dettori to ride John Leeper which caused a great deal of debate.

The favourite, Bolshoi Ballet, is very hard to pick holes in. His supporters will have been pleased to see him drawn in stall nine on Thursday and the 13/8 currently on offer looks a very fair price. 

His victory in the Derrinstown Trial was simply electric, putting the race to bed in the blink of an eye with two furlongs to go. He bolted up in the best trial this year – it’s hard to find any negatives. Bolshoi Ballet looks an uncomplicated horse and his efforts so far suggest he should cope with the challenge that the Epsom track provides. I can’t see him being flustered by Tattenham Corner.

The Derrinstown Trial hasn’t produced a Derby winner since 2002, but the winner has placed on a number of occasions in the Derby, so it’s a reasonable enough indicator for the race. The 3rd from the Derrinstown, Fernando Vichi, won a Listed race on Thursday and Mac Swiney has obviously come out and won the Irish Guineas since. 

Southern Lights, who was sixth in the Derrinstown Trial, was making eye-catching progress before being checked on the run in and subsequently eased down. Clearly, Joseph O’Brien’s colt didn’t have any chance with the winner, but he would have finished far closer (probably second) if it weren’t for the trouble he found late on. He’s beautifully bred, being a son of Sea The Stars, he’s likely to relish the trip too. The three-year-old is drawn in stall 3, which has had four winners from 34 runners and an A/E of 1.53 in races over 12f at Epsom with 12 or more runners since 2009. Obviously, it would be preferable to be drawn higher, but it’s no disaster. However, It’s hard to see him overturning the form with Bolshoi Ballet. I wouldn’t rule out a big run from Southern Lights though and he may well prove the best of the rest. 

If the rain at Epsom were to continue into Saturday, Mac Swiney would become a very interesting runner. Jim Bolger’s colt has a fine roll of honour already, with an Irish 2000 Guineas and Vertum Futurity to his name. Both these victories came in testing conditions, so while the ground is likely to be a bit quick to play to his strengths, some more rain and he has to be in the picture. However, it is set to be dry and sunny tomorrow going off the current weather forecast. His run in the Derrinstown is easily excusable, as he was found to be suffering from a nasal discharge after the race. 

There’s been plenty of talk about Frankie Dettori taking the ride of John Leeper. While it’s harsh on Adam Kirby, in my opinion, it’s understandable. Dettori has ridden 12 winners from 56 runners over 12f at Epsom since 2009, which is a win percentage of 21.4%. Kirby, on the other hand, has just two winners from 27 runs; an A/E of 0.56. If he’s available, you want Frankie Dettori on your horse in the Derby.

Anyway, onto John Leeper chances. Ed Dunlop’s colt did remarkably well to win at Newmarket last time out, when pulling hard throughout the early stages. He showed a very game attitude to battle off Tasman Bay. He was in a field of five that day, and the bigger field on Saturday should help him. However, the bare form of that race of that race suggests he will need another big step forward here. He looks too short at 7/1 for me. 

 

19 of the last 20 winners of the Derby ran no more than twice as a three-year-old. Mohaafeth will have to overcome this negative trend. He was impressive when winning at Newmarket last month but Secret Protector disappointed in second. This is a big step up and there’s others in the field who look more likely to improve again. Since 2011, William Haggas has had no winners at this meeting from 35 runners too.

Adayar has been handed the coffin draw in stall one and his conqueror in the Lingfield Derby Trial, Third Realm, has also been given an unlucky hand in stall two. Between the two stalls, in 67 races over 12f at Epsom with 12 runners or more since 2009, there’s yet to be a winner. From stall 1, there’s only been 2 places. That alone is enough to put me off both, even though Third Realm did look smart at Lingfield. 

Hurricane Lane is the pick of Charlie Appleby’s runners after winning the Dante in game fashion. He had to battle hard to win that day and is another who should improve for the step up in trip. It was a pleasing performance, but I still wouldn’t fancy him to be able to put it up to Bolshoi Ballet. Gear Up was back in fifth in the Dante, looking outpaced during the race. 

One Ruler was a good second behind Mac Swiney in the Vertum Futurity last year. His run in the 2000 Guineas was respectable too, finishing sixth, albeit well beaten in the end. Unplaced horses in the 2000 Guineas have a very poor record here, and I’d imagine he will find a few too good once more on Saturday. 

Youth Spirit improved plenty when stepping up to 1m4f in the Chester Vase last month. However, the form of all his five career runs are nothing to write home about, which is reflected in the 33/1 available on Andrew Balding’s runner. 

Epsom Derby Prediction

Bolshoi Ballet looks very, very hard to knock. The Derrinstown Trial is the best piece of form on offer and he won that race in scintillating fashion. The fact the son of Galileo is going to be Aidan O’Brien’s sole runner is rather telling. I wouldn’t back him myself at the price, but he’s by far the most likely winner and it’s hard to find anything solid enough to take him on with. However, I feel Southern Lights can get closer to him this time round with some luck in running. He should deal with the challenge of Epsom and relish the 1m4f. With only three career runs to date, I can see this son of Sea the Stars taking another step forward. With this in mind, I’ll back Southern Lights without Bolshoi Ballet each-way at 18/1. I’ll also have a small bet on the forecast, with Bolshoi Ballet first, and Southern Lights second. At the current prices, it pays around 55/1.