13;20 Ayr

I know FABULEUX DU CLOS didn't exactly pull any trees down in bumpers but he did finish just 2 and a half lengths behind Ahoy Senor here a year ago. He shaped with enough promise for me on hurdles debut at Carlisle to suggest he can go close in this race. He was given a lot to do held up in rear but made good headway in the closing stages and went second close home eventually beaten just 3 lengths at the line. The winner Moonlight Spirit looks a nice enough type and the front pair came clear. He was sent off 11/1 so should improve and I doubt they'll have him as far off it this time. Irish raider Pat's Pick is favourite at the time of writing so has to be feared but he was poor at Cork so does need to bounce back. Rowdy Rustler ran well at Kelso and that looks good form so it wouldn't surprise me if he emerged as the main danger.

15:15 Newcastle

With 2 wins from 4 starts the progressive HOMER STOKES looks to have found a good opportunity to go in again. From what we could make out he did it with enough to spare at Southwell last time and a 3lb rise won't be enough to stop him given he should come on fitness-wise from that first run since July. He is improving and I don't see anything good enough in here to stop him hitting the winning post in front again under Connor Beasley. Mawkeb could improve now handicapping but he will need to if he is to have a say in the outcome. Distinction has looked pretty limited to me and is unlikely to have much in hand off his current mark. Thaayer has won over this C&D which is a plus against most of these so perhaps he won't be that far away having run well when third at Southwell when last seen.