Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Nicky Henderson has landed the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle twice in the last six years courtesy of the mighty Altior and the equally exciting Shishkin, and many are understandably keen to see whether Constitution Hill or Jonbon can follow in their footsteps.

The former announced himself on the scene with a deeply impressive success at Sandown in December and further enhanced his reputation when returning to the Esher track to land the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle in facile fashion.

The Blue Bresil gelding has impressed the clock watchers and clearly remains open to vast improvement, which is a scary proposition for his opposition given the raw ability he has displayed thus far.

The latter fetched €570,000 when going through the ring following an impressive 15 lengths success at Dromahane in November 2020 - the fact that he is a full brother to 2015 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle hero and 2016 Arkle Novices’ Chase winner Douvan undoubtedly contributing to his price-tag.

The well-touted six-year-old is yet to put a foot wrong on the track, running out a comfortable winner of his solitary bumper start last spring before adding 3 successful hurdle runs to his resume this winter.

Jonbon displayed a real aptitude for hurdling on his debut at Newbury - advertising the raw speed that he possesses and a low, slick jumping technique that will certainly stand to him in a contest of this nature. While his subsequent victories in the Grade 2 Howden Kennel Gate Novices’ Hurdle at Ascot and the Grade 2 Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle have further enhanced his reputation.

Some may question Jonbon in spite of his success at Haydock as the manner of his victory wasn’t as visually impressive as his previous successes. However, you have to factor in that it was soft ground at Haydock and he was conceding 5lbs to all of his rivals. Therefore, it was still a very good performance and he was certainly well on-top at the line.

The master of Seven Barrows has run many future superstars in this contest over the years, with subsequent Arkle winner and dual Champion Chaser Sprinter Sacre and dual champion hurdler Buveur D’Air two examples of those who were beaten on the day but still went on to greatness.

Both of his representatives this year command the utmost respect.

While Nicky Henderson knows what it takes to be successful in this race, it’s worth noting that no trainer has topped Willie Mullins’ seven previous victories in the Cheltenham Festival curtain-raiser and the Irish champion trainer will be well represented once again this year.

Dysart Dynamo won a brace of bumpers last spring and came to the attention of many at the Punchestown Festival, when easily kicking aside a 10 rivals, including subsequent Grade 1 Lawlor’s of Naas Novice Hurdle runner-up Grand Jury, in spite of pulling Patrick Mullins’ arms out for the majority of the contest.

Willie Mullins had expressed the opinion that Dysart Dynamo could go straight over fences given his power, size and scope. However, connections decided to stick to the more traditional route and it may well pay dividends, as the striking son of Westerner built upon a facile 19 lengths success on his hurdling debut at Cork with an even more impressive 19 lengths victory in the Grade 2 Sky Bet Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown - a race that both Vautour and Douvan used as a springboard to success in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

The imposing six-year-old seemingly possesses the traits of those who have won this race previously for the Irish champion trainer, as he likes to race prominently, has a high cruising speed and appears to possess a potent blend of speed and stamina.

Given the body of evidence that we have currently, he could prove very tough to reel-in if granted an easy lead.

Sir Gerhard has been rerouted to the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle to give Willie Mullins a strong hand in both contests. The Irish champion trainer has, however, confirmed that last year’s Champion Bumper runner-up Kilcruit will head to the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and his price has shortened accordingly in recent weeks.

The well-regarded son of Stowaway turned the tables on Sir Gerhard at Punchestown last spring and was considered a top class novice hurdle prospect heading into this season. However, his reputation was dented by maiden hurdle defeats at Cork and Leopardstown respectively.

The latter of those two defeats was probably a fair effort given that he was beaten by the exciting Journey With Me and Minella Crooner over two-and-a-half-miles, and he certainly took a step forwards following the application of a tongue-tie at Punchestown in January.

Dropping back to two miles, Kilcruit readily kicked aside 19 rivals and booked his ticket on the ferry. He is certainly a leading player in this red-hot renewal.

If there’s a horse that is perhaps creeping into this contest under the radar then it’s probably Mighty Potter, who landed the Grade 1 Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown when last sighted in December.

Gordon Elliott’s well-built five-year-old defeated stablemate Three Stripe Life, who has since placed second behind the aforementioned Sir Gerhard at the Dublin Racing Festival and may well have scooped the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle had he enjoyed a clearer passage.

Had he done so, we would be looking at an unbeaten, dual Grade 1 winning novice who hails from a top yard and who possesses significant room for physical improvement given that he only turned five at the start of the year.

I do feel that this impressive son of Martaline will be suited further in time and he may lack the turn of foot should this develop into a sprint. However, I also suspect that Mighty Potter is one of the most talented horses in this race and I expect him to be dining at the top table over the years to come.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 2022 Prediction

There are at least three horses engaged in this contest who could easily be a red-hot favourite in an ordinary year.

Jonbon’s slick hurdling will help him to a hold a handy position throughout and his stablemate Constitution Hill remains somewhat of an unknown quantity in spite of his Tolworth Hurdle success.

However, I suspect that Willie Mullins does indeed hold the key to this race and so will side with Paul Townend on DYSART DYNAMO. 

Dysart Dynamo seemingly possesses many of the traits deployed by former Closutton winners given his preference to jump out handy and make his blend of speed and stamina tell. He clearly has a huge engine and it would take smart horse to close him down if a gap were to appear.