Nick Goff is the guest as Racing Weekly regulars Rishi Persad and Sam Turner debate Baaeed’s short price favouritism for the Juddmonte International Stakes.
Juddmonte International
Rishi Persad opened the discussion about Wednesday’s 15:35 feature race by saying: “Baaeed is the odds on favourite (best price 4/9) despite stepping up in distance for the first time in his career. That's the one exciting angle for the race, but another exciting aspect is that I think he's taking on the best horse he's taken on so far in Mishriff.
“Native Trail probably still has a bit of potential but if the Mishriff who turned up in the race 12 months ago does so again then we are going to find out more about how good Baaeed is.”
Juddmonte International 2022 Runners
| Runner | Best Odds | Worst Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Baaeed | 4/9 | 4/11 |
| Mishriff | 4/1 | 10/3 |
| Native Trail | 8/1 | 7/1 |
| Alenquer | 25/1 | 19/1 |
| High Definition | 50/1 | 28/1 |
| Dubai Honour | 50/1 | 40/1 |
| Sir Busker | 66/1 | 40/1 |
Sam Turner shared these thoughts on the market’s top two: “I think it's a great race and I'd be fairly keen on Mishriff at 4/1. And that’s because he's proven at York, a strange track where not only do York specialists run well, but it’s also a long walk from the boxes over to the saddling enclosure and not every horse enjoys that - particularly with a decent ground on the Knavesmire.
"His long raking stride is well suited to the configuration of the track"
“One or two horses have got to the pre-parade and boiled over before but Mishriff has coped with that, and he has that long raking stride which is well suited to the configuration of the track - more so than a Sandown or an Ascot.
“My only reservation is he's joined the John Gosden club of giving them three or four lengths out the stalls along with Lord North and one or two others. So, hopefully they've worked on his gate speed a bit. I think he's got a great chance.”
A great chance of beating Baaeed, though, Persad asked Turner? “Baaeed is running for the first time at York, first time mile and a quarter,” he replied. “It's going to be a bit like Frankel St Nicholas Abbey. I think he'll be a great value loser Mishriff and 4/1 is a very fair bet.”
And what does Nick Goff make of it? He said: “I love this Frankel comparison and Mishriff is probably a better horse than St Nicholas Abbey. I think it's really good that Mishriff is turning up because if Baaeed does win then you are looking at a bona fide absolute champion. And it's nice that Native Trail (best price 8/1) is there too because he ran well in the Eclipse so it's just a really good race.”
Juddmonte International 2022 Tips & Prediction
So, how does professional punter Goff advise playing it? “I'm not scared to play at 2/5 if I've got a strong view about the favourite and I do think he'll stay, but I'm a bit of a Mishriff fan so that will put me off. If I want to play at 2/5 he's got to tick every single box and I'm not sure I'm that confident.
“There could still be a value in a quarter odds to two (places) for Mishriff if you're willing to take on Native Trail who is his likeliest danger to finishing in the top two. Often in these races, you can get a funny second where the second or third favourite goes all out to beat the winner and gets chinned by something staying on looking for a place.
“I'm not sure that's how this will work out though because Mishriff is going to come from off the pace anyway. So, I wouldn't put people off betting Mishriff each way even with two places.”
