Cheltenham Gold Cup 2023: Ante-Post Tips & Preview

It is great to be back with the Cheltenham Festival ante-post series and in the first instalment, I have taken a look at jump racing’s blue riband event, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, which takes place on the fourth and final day of the meeting.

The Gold Cup is Cheltenham Festival’s showpiece race of the week and the market at this stage is spearheaded by the Willie Mullins trained Galopin Des Champs, who continues his rise through the ranks as one of the best staying chasers around. He will, however, face high calibre of competition with King George winner Bravemansgame and last year’s Gold Cup winner A Plus Tard amongst a high-class field.

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2023 Ante-Post Preview

Galopin Des Champs, who is 7/4 favourite, should technically be unbeaten in six starts over fences, as he undoubtedly would have returned one of the most impressive winners in recent years at the more recent Cheltenham Festival but for falling at the last fence in the Turners Novices' Chase when 11 lengths clear.

Whilst he undoubtedly took a tumble having slipped on the landing side, we cannot define what a brilliant performance it still was up to his departure and he comprehensively consigned that mishap by signing his season off on a high note as he bounced back with a Grade 1 victory in the Boylesports Gold Cup at Fairyhouse on Easter Sunday on his next start.

He made his eagerly-awaited return in the John Durkan Memorial Chase and came through his pre-Christmas assignment in glorious fashion, without coming off the bridle, as he beat four-time Grade 1 winner Fakir D’oudairies by 13 lengths. Due to that impressive display, bookmakers shortened him into 7/4 favourite for the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup.

He was very slick and economical at his fences and connections are adamant he will be even better when going over three-miles plus. If that does prove to be the case, then we could be looking at this year’s Gold Cup winner. I personally think it will take a good horse to beat him in the Gold Cup. It’s scary to believe he will be an even better horse at the Festival this time round with that first season over fences under his belt.

If he turns up and delivers a performance similar to last season in the Turners Novices' Chase without falling at the last, then the rest could be playing for minor honours. Many have questioned whether he will have the stamina for the Gold Cup, but he hasn’t looked like he won’t so far, and the further he went last time the better he looked.

I had my doubts about him becoming a top-class horse over fences last season but those thoughts are now a distant memory, especially as his latest performance, which was of real quality, suggests he is going to be hard to beat this season now that he has proved himself in the senior division.

The only thing he has to do now is prove he has the stamina and can go the gallop against proven Gold Cup horses, and if he does that, it’ll take a good performance from anything else to stop him from gaining redemption at Cheltenham.

He is the right favourite but is his price too short for the Gold Cup? Yes. Whilst it would be ridiculous to compare him to the likes of some of the greatest horses, he does have a bit of ‘Kauto Star’ zest about him, given the way he has pace, gears and can get his opposition out of their comfort zone.

As much as I think he is the likeliest winner, with more to come, I would just rather look for some each-way value, who are proven over three-miles and beyond and there are plenty of options on that front.

Last year’s winner A Plus Tard, at 9/1, would have a really good each-way chance if back to his best but an interrupted preparation is far from ideal and he disappointed in the Betfair Chase on his reappearance and was then pulled out of an intended run in the Savills Chase on veterinary advice.

He is, therefore, on a fact-finding mission now and if he goes to the Gold Cup with no confidence-booster, he will do extremely well to even make the frame let alone defend his title. He is opposed at the odds this year.

Protektorat (an ante-post fancy for Andy Holding) no doubt returned a good winner of the Betfair Chase but initially I was drawn to how those in behind fared and you can pick holes in the form. A Plus Tard wasn’t at his best, Bristol De Mai isn’t the horse he once was and the track didn’t favour Frodon nor did it for Eldorado Allen, who was a well beaten fourth in the King George next time.

I think the soft ground benefitted Dan Skelton’s charge too and while he deserves plenty of respect for his third in the Gold Cup last term, I think that was his best chance of lifting the trophy and he came up short.

He did well to take the bronze medal after a bad mistake at the final fence but again, when you analyse the beaten horses, the likes of Al Boum Photo jumped poorly, Chantry House and Tornado Flyer both endured an off-day, Asterion Forelonge didn’t stay, conditions didn’t suit Royale Pagaille and Galvin ran below his initial rating, so the form is questionable and I am happy to leave him alone at the odds this time around.

Conflated was cut into 12/1 in the ante-post market for the Gold Cup following success in the Savills Chase but on the face of it, it was a slowly-run contest and the form just doesn’t look good enough to win a Gold Cup plus Galvin, who was well fancied for the race, again ran below his best, so while Gordon Elliott’s charge has found a new lease in life since going up in trip, I just can’t have him for this, therefore he is another I am happy to oppose.

I was half-tempted by taking the NRNB 25/1 available about Capodanno, who might be a bit underestimated if allowed to take his chance, though when delving into replays of his races, I have been slightly discouraged by his jumping at times.

His fourth in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase at last year’s Cheltenham Festival leaves him with plenty to find with the market principles but he did take full advantage of Bob Olinger’s no-show when slamming his rivals by six lengths in the Grade 1 Champion Novice Chase when last spotted.

There’s a chance this year’s Gold Cup might come a year too soon, as he’s still only a youngster, with improvement to come, but if he did line-up, he could be a spot of value from an each-way perspective for those seeking something at larger odds.

I would definitely recommend taking the NRNB if you did fancy him though, just in case Willie Mullins decides to wait another year for him to participate.

If conditions came up soft or worse, L’Homme Presse would have to come under some consideration. He would have finished a clear second in the King George but for unseating his rider at the final fence and has proven himself around Cheltenham given he won at last year’s Festival. The only issue I have with him though, is that there isn’t much juice in his single-figure odds of 8/1 and better value is elsewhere in the field.

The John Hanlon-trained Hewick, available at 25/1, has been a revelation for connections and was last seen bolting up in the American Grand National. This eight-year-old has improved leaps and bounds over the last 12 months and has won two of his last three starts and would have won the Kerry National but for unseating his rider at the last fence. This has been his target since and whilst he will have his supporters, he doesn’t strike me as a Gold Cup winner.

BRAVEMANSGAME (best price 10/1), on the other hand, was simply electric in the King George and I’ll be honest, he proved me wrong that day. His performance can be upgraded too, as he proved he handles soft ground and Paul Nicholls is confident he can put in a good display in the Gold Cup provided conditions are suitable.

He must have a good each-way chance on the back of that career-best performance but I keep recollecting his Ballymore third, where he weakened to finish third in the closing stages.

He has clearly improved a lot since though, winning six of his seven chase starts, and has proved he stays three-miles several times now but whether he has the gas to go an extra quarter of a mile remains to be seen. If he stays, and jumps and travels as well as he does, he would make a solid each-way choice from a betting stance and some would argue he should be pushing for favouritism, as his RPR of 177 (achieved in King George), puts him alongside the favourite - Galopin Des Champs, who’s RPR is equal, yet that rival is unproven over three miles.

In addition, Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and he wouldn’t be risking his star performer unless he felt like he was more than capable of being extremely competitive. The collective view is that most believe he can’t win a Gold Cup judged on his current odds for that race and I don’t see why he can’t when he brings probably the best staying chase form this season to the table.

For sure, a lot of his rivals in the King George made mistakes but even so, Bravemansgame’s intelligence in the jumping department, which is his biggest asset, was glaring to witness en route to his biggest career success last time and that weapon in his inventory will be a massive advantage in terms of the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Maybe he is a better horse on a flatter track, given his best performances have been when kept away from undulating tracks but he is a better and stronger horse over fences and given he’s beaten pretty much every horse he has faced over fences, his price seems inflated.

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2023 Ante-Post Tips

The one horse who I mentioned a few weeks ago in one of my articles, who makes a lot of each-way sense and will certainly be a bet for me in the Gold Cup is Galopin’s stablemate STATTLER (best price 12/1).

Last season’s National Hunt Chase winner at the Cheltenham Festival reappeared in the Savills New Year's Day Chase win at Tramore and ran a great trial to finish second to former Gold Cup winner, Minella Indo.

The fact that he was giving the winner eight-pounds over a trip short of his best and was forced to come wide, cover more ground, to make his challenge before only being pipped to the post by the whisker of his teeth was a real encouraging display to say the least.

His trainer, Willie Mullins, has used that race as a stepping stone towards Al Boum Photo winning two Gold Cups and Stattler surely strengthened his Gold Cup credentials.

That return ought to have blown away the cobwebs too plus the longer trip in the Gold Cup will be up his street. It might also be worth mentioning that some of those who have won or run well in the National Hunt Chase in the last 10 or so years have predominantly done well in either the Grand National or in the Gold Cup such as Minella Rocco, Native River, Tiger Roll and Galvin.

I do find it staggering that Stattler hasn’t shortened a lot for the big one on the back of that highly promising return at the weekend.

For sure, Galopin Des Champs might blow this field apart but I just think his stablemate is the better value at this stage, as everything about the Gold Cup looks perfectly ideal for this strong-traveller, including the three and a quarter miles trip.

Maybe connections might consider next year’s Grand National if all else fails in March but either way, he is a tad overpriced, this doesn’t look like being the strongest renewals of the Gold Cup and it is hard to see him out of the picture if he’s within striking distance when push comes to shove.