Tolworth Hurdle 2023: Tips, Runners & Prediction for Saturday's 2:25 at Sandown

At Sandown this weekend, the Grade 1 Unibet Tolworth Novices' Hurdle will take place at 14:25 on Saturday and while this year’s line-up isn’t the strongest of renewals we will have ever seen, it should still prove informative.

Here is my runner-by-runner guide plus a tips and predictions section to conclude.

Tolworth Hurdle 2023 Runners

Arctic Bresil

• Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
• Jockey: Unknown
• Odds: 3/1
• Form: U21

 

Having changed hands for £305,000 late into 2021, Arctic Bresil comfortably scored in a 22-runner maiden hurdle at Cork last month. Given how impressive he was, Henry de Bromhead said that the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Hurdle at Punchestown in the middle of this month might be on the agenda.

He has been rerouted here instead though, so he is a fascinating runner indeed given the Irish last won this race six years ago with the enigma Yorkhill. He deserves plenty of respect but he is priced up on potential rather than the substance of his form and wouldn’t be for me here.

Authorised Speed

• Trainer: Gary Moore
• Jockey: Jamie Moore
• Odds: 2/1
• Form: 214511

 

With ante-post favourite Luccia now ruled of the race, that has now seen Authorised Speed instated as the joint-favourite. Last season’s Champion Bumper fifth, who fared the best of the British that day, has since made a promising start to his hurdles career.

He won in good style at Lingfield before following up at this course last time in great fashion despite a bad mistake at the last hurdle. Interestingly, Constitution Hill and Fiddlerontheroof both won that same race before winning this and Gary Moore’s charge, who is described to be just as good as Goshen by his son Jamie, seems sure to be hard to beat.

Blow Your Wad

• Trainer: Tom Lacey
• Jockey: Stan Sheppard
• Odds: 25/1
• Form: 22421

 

Blow Your Wad has a quirky side about him but there’s no doubt he has an engine and ran well in all three of his bumper starts. He then chased home Leave Of Absence on his hurdles debut at Ascot before getting off the mark at the second time of asking at Kempton in November.

He was made to work a lot harder than most anticipated to get the job done but he travelled smoothly and can only improve and he is related to some good horses. He could be a spot of each-way value at large odds with more to offer.

Colonel Harry

• Trainer: Jamie Snowden
• Jockey: Gavin Sheehan
• Odds: 25/1
• Form: F121

 

Colonel Harry shaped with bundles of promise when second on his hurdles debut and confirmed that impression when going one better here on heavy ground in early November, showing relentless staying power and class to keep up the gallop and score by seven lengths in the end.

The performance was impressive to the eye but the form hasn’t worked out too well, truth be told, as a few of the placed horses have been well beaten since. He is capable of better but the combination of the step up in class and against a better field makes his task more difficult and I’ll pass him over.

L’Astroboy

• Trainer: Evan Williams
• Jockey: Adam Wedge
• Odds: 20/1
• Form: 11

 

Despite being overlooked in the market pre-race on his rules debut, L’astroboy overcame traffic difficulties to finish with a strong burst of speed to beat Tahmuras in a bumper at Ffos Las 11 months ago. His performance deserved recognition given the winner got first run on him too and has boosted the form since.

He returned to the course for his hurdles debut in late November and won with lots to spare to keep his unbeaten record intact. In terms of price comparison, I think he is massively underestimated given he is still available at double-figure odds with Tahmuras nearly favourite. He will need improvement but that is probable and I like his profile and claims from an each-way point of view.

Nemean Lion

• Trainer: Kerry Lee
• Jockey: Richard Patrick
• Odds: 16/1
• Form: 12

 

A formerly smart Stayer on the Flat for Andre Fabre, Nemean Lion was even runner-up in a Group 2 a few years ago at the Arc meeting and has made a good start to his hurdles career since for Kerry Lee. He didn’t jump with much fluency but he still absolutely hosed up at Hereford by a wide-margin.

While that form isn’t strong, he was impressive, and he didn’t do much wrong when second to Hullnback under a penalty at Haydock next time either. That form is quite useful and he will have learnt a lot from that defeat as well. He should be suited to the course and isn’t out of this by any means.

Tahmuras

• Trainer: Paul Nicholls
• Jockey: Harry Cobden
• Odds: 2/1
• Form: 2111

 

Paul Nicholls has won this four times in the past and Tahmuras, who has been impressive in winning both his hurdle starts to date, has to be respected. He has shown versatility in regards to tactics as he made all at Chepstow and then came from off the pace in a Listed event at Haydock last-time-out.

If conditions are soft, then that could ask more of him as all of his wins have been on the good side of the ground but is clearly talented. I just cannot work out why he is so low in the betting compared to Evan Williams’ charge who beat him on debut, but he has clearly taken well to hurdles and rates one of the likeliest winners in the race.

Ukantango 

• Trainer: Olly Murphy
• Jockey: Unknown
• Odds: 25/1
• Form: 1112

 

Olly Murphy’s Ukantango won his first three starts under rules, once in a bumper and then his first two starts over hurdles, including at Aintree before splitting two decent horses when second in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time.

That was a really solid display in defeat but conditions will probably be softer here and the opposition looks a tad stronger too. He still looked raw and a bit inexperienced last time, so he should have plenty more to come and he could be an outsider to consider.

Tolworth Hurdle 2023 Tips & Prediction

With the late deflection of Luccia, who was ruled due to an unsatisfactory scope, this Grade 1 race definitely has more of an open feel about it now. However, AUTHORISED SPEED (best price 2/1) is two-from-two over hurdles and ticks a lot of boxes for this race, including the top three trends plus he has course-and-distance winning form.

He has room for improvement, especially in the jumping department, and is the one to beat. His connections are also very bullish about his chances, which adds further confidence.

I fully respect Tahmuras from the Paul Nicholls stable but surely L’ASTROBOY (best price 20/1) should be a lot closer to that one in the betting despite the former improving a lot since going over hurdles and warrants a bet at the odds.

Evan Williams’ charge beat the second-favourite for this race fair and square on debut in a bumper and won nicely on his hurdles debut back in November. He should also have a lot more to come and will benefit from any arrival of rain. At a double-figure price, he makes the most each-way appeal.