Architect Tips previews the Stayers' Hurdle 2023 and picks out two tips for the Day 3 Cheltenham Festival showpiece.
Stayers Hurdle 2023
The Grade 1 Stayers’ Hurdle is the feature race on the third day of the Cheltenham Festival and when the entries were unveiled, it was noticeable to see that we are in for one of the most wide-open renewals in recent years. The market also clarifies this thought too, as there is no clear and solid favourite with it being 6/1 the field.
Stayers' Hurdle 2023 Runners & Preview
Flooring Porter faces an uphill task in his hat-trick bid
Without a shadow of doubt, Flooring Porter (6/1) has been targeted at this race again by his handler and the two-time back-to-back defending champion would have good claims on his best form but that is far from possible based on this season’s form to date.
His two performances this season have seen his RPR’s dip quite low compared to the last two seasons and that has to ring alarm bells in his quest for a third win in succession in this race. He has been granted a soft lead the last two years as well, which has certainly enhanced his winning performances.
The problem I have with him this time around, however, is that he is unlikely to be able to dictate matters at his own pace. The Jeremy Scott-trained Dashel Drasher won’t let the defending champion have any breathing space and he might even be the value at this stage if you are seeking some big-odds value.
Flooring Porter might well win this again but I have an inkling he will be at his most vulnerable this time compared to the last two years as his two starts this season suggest he might have declined so, at his current odds, I am happy to look elsewhere in search of better value.
Dashel Drasher won’t go down without a fight
Speaking of Dashel Drasher (25/1), it would be great to see him line-up in this race. I have always rated this horse highly and I think the market has vastly underestimated his chances. Even when he doesn’t win, this Grade 1 winner always appears to win his own private battle for the minor honours and he ran a tremendous race to take second in the Relkeel at Cheltenham last time.
He should be suited to three-miles over hurdles as he didn’t look like he lacked the stamina when second in the Many Clouds Chase on his penultimate start, it was more of a case that Grand National winner Noble Yeats had the gears to execute a turn of foot on the day.
The ten-year-old doesn’t have gears but what he does have is the heart of a lion, he tries his hardest and he will keep galloping even when the petrol gauge flickers. He is hard as nails and whatever the outcome, he will give it his all here.
Can Home By The Lee improve on last year’s sixth?
Home By The Lee (5/1) has been revitalised by Joseph O’Brien this season and whilst he is two-from-two this season over three miles and did well to win his Grade 1 last time when he had Flooring Porter and Ashdale Bob in behind, something tells me those in behind didn’t perform to their best, including Ashdale Bob, despite him finishing second.
He was only sixth in this last season and although he has taken his form up another notch this term, he will do well to improve on that display this time around, especially if faced with good ground, as all of his best form has been on going described as yielding or softer. I think he’s plenty short enough in the betting and I get the feeling he will improve on last year’s sixth but not win it.
Paisley Park has seemingly been overlooked
He might not be the force of old but Paisley Park (14/1) proved this season he is still a genuine threat in Grade 1 company and he did very well to win the rescheduled Long Walk Hurdle last time, where his customary late surge saw him gain revenge on Champ, who had narrowly beat him when the pair met on their reappearance at Newbury, and he won going away by four lengths over the Christmas period.
It is surprising to see him still trading at double-figure odds with lots in his favour. If he goes and wins the Cleeve Hurdle as well, he will definitely be cut into single-figure odds. Those at double-figure age, however, tend to struggle to win the Stayers’ Hurdle but this 11-year-old is different to other veterans and he has the class to win this again despite his age.
His chances will be helped if they go hard up front, as he will probably get outpaced before staying on strongly in the latter stages. That is far from guaranteed to happen of course and maybe this year’s renewal might be asking too much of him but, if he is in contention when it matters most, he might be able to produce his last thrust and raise the roof one last time for his supporters.
Blazing Khal too short despite improvement to come
Blazing Khal (10/1) might well tick a lot of the stats for this race and won a Grade 2 here that has worked out well when last spotted and is reported to be in rude health ahead of his reappearance. However, he would need to have improved a lot on the figures to trouble a few of those who have much stronger form and are rated higher.
He is three-from-three over hurdles and could easily take his form to a whole new level but this would be a huge step up in grade to all of those previous wins and I get the impression he might find one or two too strong here. I could be wrong but I think there are classier horses in the field who make more appeal at this stage of the season for this race.
Surprising Willie Mullins’ entries
Willie Mullins doesn’t make it easy for us to try and figure out who and where his runners will end up at the Cheltenham Festival. It is a surprise to see Chacun Pour Soi (20/1) given an entry considering he’s never run beyond two miles let alone tackle three miles plus he hasn’t been over hurdles since his time in France.
I have advised him for the Champion Chase NRNB in my previous ante-post column, so hopefully he goes there and not this strange route. It would be madness if he lines up here but Willie knows more than me about his horses of course!
Haut En Couleurs (25/1) Monkfish (20/1) Sharjah (14/1) and Sir Gerhard (16/1) have been entered too but it is hard to see them feature in the final field, though if any of them do, prepare for their odds to shorten.
Klassical Dream a great each-way bet with a lighter preparation
While Willie Mullins has a lot of runners entered, his main hopeful is last year’s fifth, Klassical Dream (8/1), who is a class act in his day and is a six-time Grade 1 winner. The nine-year-old was mightily impressive in his first two starts over three-miles, winning two Grade 1’s, form that has worked out well.
He had the likes of James Du Berlais, Flooring Porter and other notable names all in behind. He was actually sent off favourite for this race last year and whilst he could only manage fifth, that wasn’t a true reflection on his performance.
He was keen throughout the whole three-mile journey but was the last horse off the bridle and although he briefly looked like he was going to win, he faded in the closing stages due to those earlier excursions on the soft ground.
He is better than that, especially when he settles and Willie Mullins took full responsibility for the spur of the moment when running him at Gowran Park too, which in hindsight he wouldn’t have run him and instead done more work with him after Christmas. This time around, Willie won’t make the same mistake twice and will have him absolutely spot on for the big one in March.
He did, however, make amends a month later in the Champion Stayers Hurdle at Punchestown, beating the likes of Ashdale Bob and Paisley Park before splitting two high-class French horses in the Grade 1 Grand Prix d'Automne (French Champion Hurdle) - and that is top-class form to say the least.
It’s astounding to see some comments suggesting he doesn’t say three miles. Well if that’s the case, how come he has won three Grade 1 events over the distance? I don’t think a horse who doesn’t stay wins three good-quality races over that trip by default.
The only reason this has come to mind is because of his fifth in this last year but he was too keen, didn’t have the best preparation heading into the race and he needs more time between his races as well.
His reappearance saw him contest the Hatton’s Grade over an inadequate trip but he came within a neck of success and, again, travelled powerfully, jumped well and settled. It seems as though connections are plotting a lighter route with him this time around and that could work the oracle as he goes well fresh plus he is probably going to the pick of Paul Townend at Cheltenham again too.
If the ground is better at Cheltenham, and he settles, with that better preparation to work with too, I think this will be the time we see this former Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner showcase his class in the UK again as I am pretty confident he will go close this year so, at 8/1 generally, he merits strong each-way consideration here.
Asterion Forlonge is of some interest at double-figure odds NRNB
Willie has also entered Asterion Forlonge (16/1), who could be a dark horse if lining up here, so I’ll hold fire with his claims. The nine-year-old can be his own worst enemy but I thought he ran a lot better than the result suggested in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last year when seventh and would have finished second in the 2021 King George without falling at the last fence as well.
I reckon he would have won the Grade 1 John Durkan and beat Allaho that same year without unseating his rider three out when going well. If connections revert him back to hurdles, he would be interesting over three miles here and he remains unexposed in this sphere as well and has a lot of ability.
This is his only entry for Cheltenham as of yet and although we haven’t seen him yet this season, don’t be surprised to see him make his return in the Stayers’ Hurdle, especially with such a good record fresh that reads 111U. He would have won in that race he departed in as well in my opinion.
He hasn’t been seen over hurdles since his fourth in the Supreme here in 2020 and remains unexposed as a hurdler with figures in this sphere reading 1114. He is well worth a shot at this trip over this distance, as he has the talent to figure if he puts it all together, so the 16/1 NRNB book with WilliamHill appeals to some degree.
Stayers' Hurdle 2023 Ante-Post Tips
This is a seriously open renewal of the Stayers' Hurdle but it is a great race to tackle from a betting perspective as a case could easily be made for most of the entries to be honest. Coincidentally, however, I am drawn to the claims of two horses for the Willie Mullins team.
I cannot help but feel KLASSICAL DREAM (best price 9/1) has some unfinished business in this race and is worth a punt at his juicy odds. He is the joint third highest rated in the field alongside Flooring Porter with only Teahupoo and Home By The Lee rated higher.
I really do think both the latterly-mentioned pair have been given inflated ratings even though their latest wins were career-best performances and the selection is the best value to be this race with an actual chance of winning it.
I just can’t have Teahupoo, who was so disappointing in the Champion Hurdle last year and is unproven over three miles whilst Home By The Lee was behind Klassical Dream in this race last year then the latter wasn’t at his best. Willie Mullins’ six-time Grade 1 winner has won three times at the highest level over this trip and will arrive at Cheltenham a fresher horse than last year, which I am sure will make a huge difference.
He is a really class horse in his day and let’s not forget he was sent off favourite twelve months ago. I know and we know he is better than his fifth in this last season and he has already beaten most of those who are in and around in the betting for this year’s renewal before.
I think he is a great price and if he settles and runs to his best, he could easily avenge his defeat last year and showcase his qualities that he undoubtedly possesses with his better preparation to help as well.
I will also recommend backing ASTERION FORLONGE (best price 16/1 NRNB) who could surprise a few at large odds if supplemented. If he isn’t though, all stakes are returned. He is a good horse when everything clicks and he wasn’t disgraced in the Gold Cup last season. He has an excellent record fresh and the return to hurdles over three miles could see him run a big race here.
The nine-year-old would have won the John Durkan and would have finished second in the King George without mishap, so his form figures don’t justify the talent and form he is capable of producing when at his best. This is his only entry at Cheltenham to date so maybe this is his sole target this season and, if so, he cannot be ruled out.
