Supreme Novices' Hurdle

The Cheltenham Festival’s traditional curtain-raiser is the Grade 1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, which will get underway to its trademark “Cheltenham Roar”. 

Willie Mullins has trained the winner in five of the last 10 renewals, so the ante-post market is unsurprisingly headed by one of the most exciting horses in training - Facile Vega. 

Will favourite backers get off to the perfect start, or will something else emerge from the pack? 

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 2023 Runners and Preview

Facile Vega a strong favourite but no value  

It is easy to see why Facile Vega heads the betting at (10/11) given Willie Mullins high-class prospect is unbeaten in six starts under rules, and was mightily impressive in the Champion Bumper at last season’s Cheltenham Festival. He has subsequently made the transition from bumpers to hurdles conveniently well too, winning both starts in decent style. 

He had previously won all four of his bumper starts, which included a smooth victory in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown, beating Sandor Clegane by 12 lengths and that form has substance given the runner-up is now considered as a lively player in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle having won over hurdles easily last time.

He was faced with heavy ground for the first time in the Champion Bumper but even the ground didn’t stop him from displaying his turn of foot having cruised into contention before bounding clear from Gordon Elliott’s American Mike, who also went into that race unbeaten with James’s Gate back in third. Patrick Mullins executed a perfectly-judged ride. 

He then completed his campaign with success at the Punchestown Festival, where he beat Redemption Day by over a length, recording his second Grade 1 of the campaign. He couldn’t have been any more impressive on his hurdles debut in a maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse and whilst he was more workmanlike when stepped up to Grade 1 company next time, he will have learnt a lot. 

I know he wasn’t foot-perfect but he will improve from that and if he is successful at the Dublin Racing Festival - his next intended target, he will probably shorten in the ante-post market for March. The only problem I have with him though is recognising favourites record in the Supreme as, historically, they do not have a good record in the race. Besides this, however, his chances are apparent. 

This son of six-time Festival winner Quevega certainly has a sexy profile and will be an extremely strong fancy for most big-betting punters at this early stages, and will undoubtedly feature in many multiples between now and March for Cheltenham. I am inclined to think that not everything will fall into place for him though, as this race is going to be run at an end-to-end gallop and a lot of luck as well as class is needed.

Furthermore, winners of the Champion Bumper predominantly run well in the Supreme but struggle to prove victorious when looking back on the history of both races, so take this in mind. If any trainer can overcome statistics and trends though it’s Willie Mullins. Is Facile Vega a banker? Possibly. Does he rate any value at his odds from an ante-post perspective? No. 

But then the question is, who can possibly beat him or worst-case scenario, make the frame? 

Marine Nationale the biggest danger 

Whilst his trainer and jockey are relative newcomers to the Cheltenham Festival, there has been a lot to like about the way Marine Nationale (5/1) has won all of his starts under rules and his latest Grade 1 success has earned him second-favouritism at the time of writing this piece. 

Barry Connell’s six-year-old won both his starts in bumpers and comfortably landed the odds on his hurdles debut at Punchestown. He was then acquired to tackle Grade 1 Royal Bond Novices’ Hurdle at Fairyhouse and although he was only sent off third favourite on this occasion, he remained unbeaten, winning easier than the margin indicated. 

He was confidently ridden by Michael O’Sullivan throughout the journey and made smooth headway to track the leaders jumping the second last hurdle and despite being a little untidy at the final hurdle, he picked up strongly within a matter of seconds to overhaul a talented bunch of Irish prospects and take the scalp of the eventual runner-up Irish Point, who’s held in high regard, and shade the verdict by a head. 

The form has been strongly advertised since as well, with Champ Kiely (fourth) and Irish Point (second) finishing first and second in the Grade 1 Lawlor's Of Naas Novice Hurdle. You even go as far to say that form has more substance than what Facile Vega has achieved in this sphere as well. 

I was under the illusion he would be more of a “Ballymore” horse as he looked a stayer in the making but upon reflection of that race, he has lots of pace and speed allied to a turn of foot and it suggested a strongly-run two-mile championship race will be tailor-made for him indeed. With this taken into account, there is no need to move up in trip with him yet. 

We don’t know the ceiling of his ability either and if he was trained by Willie, Henry or Gordon, he would no doubt be trading shorter than his current price tag with firms in the ante-post books. His connections have stated he won’t need another run between now and March so, with the Supreme the plan unless connections conversely change their mind, he has solid each-way credentials. 

Impaire likely to go for the Ballymore instead 

Impaire Et Passe (9/1) created an excellent impression when landing a ninth Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle for trainer Willie Mullins at Punchestown - a race he has won with some of the greats in the modern era. He showed real professionalism considering it was only his second hurdle start.

That said, connections might be leaning towards the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle instead? It seems likely given he is second-favourite and Willie won’t finalise his plans until the brink of the confirmation stage at final declarations but this well-touted prospect probably won’t line-up here, so we can therefore move swiftly onto the next horse.  

Paul Nicholls’ Tahmuras could be a great each-way value 

It has been 12 years since champion trainer Paul Nicholls last won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle but he has a big each-way player in the shape of Tahmuras (14/1), who bids to follow in the footsteps of Al Ferof and Noland, who claimed this prize for the Ditcheat handler in their respective years over a decade ago in the famous John Hales silks. 

Tahmuras was marginally denied by L’astroboy on his debut in a bumper at Wincanton when second but hasn’t looked back since going over hurdles, for which he is a perfect three-from-three. He was much too good for his rivals at Sandown last time, where he provided Paul Nicholls with a fifth success in the Unibet Tolworth Novices' Hurdle last time. 

The six-year-old has an enormous amount of talent as despite blundering the last two hurdles, he still managed to win by two and a half lengths under a confident Harry Cobden ride. With that high-profile victory under his belt, he is now the leading British hopeful here, according to the bookmakers odds about him at least. 

He also holds an entry in the Ballymore but with Hermes Allen a hot favourite for that race, the sensible option would be to tackle the opener with this Grade 1 winner, who would only need to improve in the jumping department to give himself a chance of being competitive. 

He clearly improved a bucket load from his first two runs over hurdles last time and there is no doubt we haven’t seen the best of him yet either, as he didn’t do a tap when he got to the front as he still looked green but found another gear to go again in the closing stages which was notable. 

In some ways, he has a lot similarities to Al Ferof and Noland, who both won the race for connections back in 2006 and 2011, as he probably isn’t the speediest of two-millers but looks like he will stay further and that will stand in him good stead when he faces the famous hill when they swing into the home-straight. 

Traditionally, the Tolworth Hurdle has been a good pointer for the Cheltenham Festival, as it has unearthed plenty of Festival winners in recent years that same season. Those include Summerville Boy and Constitution Hill (1/3 for the Champion Hurdle), who are the more recent individuals to have won the Tolworth en route to Supreme success at Cheltenham. 

He is clearly one of the best two-mile novice hurdlers in this country but is he good enough to beat the Irish ones who come over? In any ordinary year, he would probably be vying for favouritism but, by contrast, this isn’t going to be a normal year with Grade 1 winners Facile Vega and Marine Nationale expected to travel over. If he jumps well though, I can really see him serving it up to the Irish big guns here. 

The good news, however, is he is available at double-figure odds plus he is unbeaten in this sphere, is now a Grade 1 winner and represents powerful connections who have done well in this race in the past too. His price has unfairly been overshadowed due to the two Irish participants who head the betting, so he makes a lot of logical sense from a value point of view. 

High Definition a dark horse for the opener 

High Definition (20/1) is a high-rated Flat horse and won comfortably on his hurdles debut over Christmas. His jumping wasn’t clean but the engine remained intact and it’s most likely we will see him one more time before heading to Cheltenham and that should reveal more as to how he might fare when pitched into Grade 1 company in this sphere. 

If positive tactics are applied again in the Supreme, he might be a sitting duck to something tracking the pace but either way, he would be a fascinating participant should be line-up in the opener for Joseph O’Brien. At double-figure odds, I wouldn’t put anyone off him given his raw ability, and especially if he jumps better than he did on his hurdles debut. 

Irish Point is a point or two too big in the betting

One who looks a big price at this stage and could shorten if successful at the Dublin Racing Festival is Irish Point (16/1) who is most likely to run in the Supreme based upon the vibes from the Gordon Elliott team. 

He ran well when second behind Champ Kiely at Naas over a longer trip last time despite making a couple of mistakes and his chances were also compromised by the omitted hurdles in the home-straight, so his performance deserved a bit more recognition than it initially received. 

He still, however, kept on well for second and his previous neck second in the Royal Bond is seriously strong form, he was only mugged right on the line by Marine Nationale having looked like winning when two lengths clear from the back of the last hurdle. 

The winner remained unbeaten and did well to overcome a mistake at the last hurdle but there really isn’t a lot to separate the pair on form, yet he is trading at nearly three-times the odds, so I can see why some see him as value for this race. 

Theoretically, Irish Point should be much closer to Marine Nationale in the ante-post books and it is possible he will be an even better horse on better ground, though all of his hurdles starts to date and have been on soft ground, which is more than likely a coincidence rather than anything else. I just get the impression Marine Nationale is the better horse of the two. 

Inthepocket could be supplemented 

At an even bigger price, Henry de Bromhead’s Inthepocket (25/1) is another one I like at double-figure odds. I know connections, especially Henry, are keen to test the water with him at Cheltenham in a longer distance race but I think a fast and furious two-mile Supreme would be right up his street. 

The JP McManus-owned five-year-old had made a very stylish winning hurdles debut at Wexford and was then stepped up considerably in class and distance to contest the Grade 2 rearranged Tote Navan Novice Hurdle at Naas and remained unbeaten by a small margin. 

He was practically all out at the line to beat Three Card Brag but I loved the way he powered in between rivals shortly after they turned into the home straight despite pulling quite hard throughout the race on soft ground. He didn’t really do anything once he went clear when the hurdles were omitted but he always looked like holding on and so he did. 

His jumping and pace is his biggest asset and he did well to win last time against some highly-regarded types. He travelled like the best horse in the race and he will definitely settle better with a bigger-field stronger-race scenario in March. I much prefer his chances in the Supreme rather than the Ballymore, Albert Bartlett despite his point background which suggests he will stay further under rules.

He is entered in the Grade 1 Leopardstown Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle over two-miles on the 5th February, where he is a general 7/1 chance behind favourite Facile Vega. Now if he was going up in trip at Cheltenham, surely connections would be looking at a longer-trip race, so his performance in that race will legitimately determine whether he goes for the Supreme or one of the longer races.

It would be asking a lot but say for instance, he finishes a solid second or causes a mini upset and take the spoils, the 25/1 about him for this specific race in this week’s ante-post series won’t last long and it might even see him at a single-figure price. He is an interesting entrant indeed. 

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Ante-Post Tips 

Facile Vega is the most likeliest winner on all accounts and has proven himself at the Cheltenham Festival given his exploits in the Champion Bumper last year. However, that form hasn’t worked out well at all with a host of those horses who were in behind being beaten since and I am going to oppose him in favour of a few who I like.

The Henry de Bromhead-trained INTHEPOCKET (best price 25/1) could go for the Ballymore or the Albert Bartlett given he is a three-mile point-to-point winner but he looks tailor-made for the opener on day one, as he has lots of pace, travels well, jumps well and has a lot more to come. He is unbeaten in both starts under rules and is worth a chance at huge odds.

Inthepocket - 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1

Irish Point is closely matched with MARINE NATIONALE (best price 5/1) based on their Royal Bond second and first placed efforts, but the latter is unbeaten under rules (four-from-four) who did well to catch Irish Point last time and is fancied to confirm his superiority over that rival when they face-off at Cheltenham. 

Without a mistake at the last hurdle, he would have won quite comfortably and a strongly-run two-mile event will really suit this strong-traveller, who has mostly jumped well at speed in his two victories in this sphere.

His form looks way stronger than what Facile Vega has achieved, so although himself and his trainer lack Cheltenham experience compared to a few of the other connections and runners, that doesn’t diminish his credentials in the slightest for the Festival opener and he is a rock-solid each-way option against the favourite for the Supreme.

Marine Nationale - 1pt e/w @ 5/1

Finally, the Paul Nicholls-trained TAHMURAS (best price 14/1) would undoubtedly be a single-figure price if this was any other year but he isn’t purely based on the presence of Facile Vega and Marine Nationale. That means he is an attractive price though and Tolworth Hurdle winners have quite a good record at the Cheltenham Festival. 

He has a lot more to come and will be better suited to a bigger field at Cheltenham and I think he will jump better with a stronger pace. Given his progressive profile and his trainers good record in this race historically, he is a solid each-way choice at the prices. 

Tahmuras - 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1