15:25 Southwell

This looks a competitive 0-95 handicap but preference goes to the consistent CAPITAL THEORY (best priced at 7/2) who has been in good form this winter on the AW. The Charlie Johnston trained four-year-old has form figures of 311122 on the AW with victories coming at Chelmsford, Lingfield and Wolverhampton.

Capital Theory finished a close 2nd at Lingfield on his penultimate start off a mark of 83 before finishing 2nd last time at Kempton off a mark of 84 in a Class 2 0-105 handicap. The handicapper has raised the gelding 2lbs for that effort but he instead runs here off a mark of 84 so he is 2lbs “well in” at the weights. This drop back in grade to a Class 3 0-95 handicap should prove easier and I expect him to prove hard to beat under Oliver Stammers.

Capital Theory - 1pt

16:35 Southwell

This looks a tricky 0-55 handicap but a chance is taken on the Bill Turner trained MOUNTAIN RUN (best priced at 33/1) on her handicap debut. The filly has form figures of 087 in novice races in her career but she has shown improved form on all three of those starts. She was only beaten 6 ½ lengths last time at Wolverhampton despite being sent off 125/1 and she is interesting off an opening mark of 57.

Connections have decided to use Jordan Williams to claim 5lbs off the top weight and it is also interesting that she is also fitted with first time cheekpieces on her handicap debut. I expect to see an improved effort from her and she looks overpriced with four places on offer.

Mountain Run - 0.5pts e/w

18:00 Chelmsford

Both Bond Boy and LILIKOI (best priced at 9/2) run in this 0-65 handicap with 5lb penalties but preference goes to the latter who is 1lb “well in” at the weights. The David & Nicola Barron trained five-year-old won at Newcastle last time on her first start over 7f for nearly at year and she did it easier than a winning margin of 1 ¾ lengths suggested.

The handicapper has raised Lilikoi 6lbs for her victory last time but she instead runs here under a 5lb penalty meaning that she is 1lb “well in” and I expect her to prove hard to beat under Connor Beasley who has a good record on her.

Lilikoi - 1pt