14:10 Cheltenham

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase 2023 Runners

Gerri Colombe

Most horses whom are 7-7 and head the market for a Grade 1 novice chase at the Cheltenham Festival have plenty of buzz surrounding them and, while most will suggest that Gerri Colombe is the most likely winner of this contest, I sense there is still a small degree of doubt about just how good the seven-year-old really is.

Gordon Elliott’s charge defeated subsequent scorer Bronn on his chasing debut at Fairyhouse and he hasn’t looked back since, landing the Grade 1 Faugheen Novice Chase over Christmas and the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase last month.

Adamantly Chosen and Kilcruit were amongst his victims at Limerick. While the 151 rated Balco Coastal proved no match at Sandown.

His latest success suggested that stepping-up to 3 miles would be right up his street and connections will be hopeful that the patience they displayed both in bumpers and over hurdles, where he was kept relatively low-key, will be rewarded.

Gerri Colombe will appreciate the recent rainfall and his credentials are rock solid.

The Real Whacker

The Real Whacker has been a true revelation for connections this year and he rates a big player in this race, which is a huge feather in the cap of Patrick Neville, who only has around 20 horses in his care.

The Real Whacker placed second in Grade 2 company over hurdles and he earned a rating of 136 in that sphere. However, he has taken his form to a whole new level over fences, landing a novice chase over this course and distance in November before landing the Grade 2 Paddy Power Novices’ Chase (Dipper Novices’ Chase) at Cheltenham on New Year's Day.

Those victories demonstrated that he possesses the stamina for 3 miles and the tactical speed for two-and-a-half-miles and it’s interesting to note that L’Homme Presse landed the Dipper Novices’ Chase before winning this race last year, while Champ would have won the same contest had he not fallen at the final fence in 2020 and he too went on to land this race. 

It’s certainly been a good trial for this race in recent years and it’s probably fair to say that The Real Whacker’s greatest strength is his jumping, which again draws comparisons to L’Homme Presse 12 months ago.

It’s easy to argue that this deeply progressive seven-year-old would be a shorter price if he hailed from a more fashionable stable and he could prove hard to peg back if granted an easy lead.

Sir Gerhard

Dual Cheltenham Festival hero Sir Gerhard is arguably the class act of this race in spite of his place in the betting. However, his price reflects both his lack of experience and unproven stamina, which is far from ideal heading into this contest. 

The Cheveley Park Stud owned eight-year-old wasn’t sighted until January when making light work of his solitary rival and jumping well on the whole, albeit he made a bad mistake at the third and was slow at one or two.

Willie Mullins was quick to nominate this contest as his likely Cheltenham Festival target in the immediate aftermath of that victory, suggesting that going slightly slower would help his jumping.

That is obviously logical thinking. However, it could also indicate that the champion trainer may not be fully convinced about Sir Gerhard as a chaser and his jumping will certainly come under pressure if the aforementioned The Real Whacker gets into a good rhythm out in-front.

Sir Gerhard was miles clear of these over hurdles and he could easily outclass them if jumping well and seeing out the trip. However, he clearly has the most to prove of those towards the head of the betting and the recent rainfall will ensure that his stamina is thoroughly tested.

Thyme Hill

Stamina certainly won’t be an issue for popular stayer Thyme Hill, who was officially the highest rated of these over hurdles and was only beaten two-and-three-quarter-lengths in the Stayers Hurdle last year.

Philip Hobbs nine-year-old was a Grade 1 winner over timber and he doesn’t fall short in terms of Cheltenham Festival form, as he also boasts a third placed finish in the 2019 Champion Bumper and a fourth placed effort in the 2020 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle.

Thyme Hill made a successful chasing debut at Exeter in November before finding the classy McFabulous too good in Grade 2 company at Newbury. However, he avenged that defeat when landing the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day and he is arguably better suited to a track like Cheltenham where his stamina truly comes to the fore.

The only slight negative is that regular rider Tom  O’Brien will be unable to take the ride after suffering a dislocated shoulder last month, which is a blow as the pair seemingly get on really well.

That said, the more-than capable Micheal Nolan will take over on the saddle and they could easily be finishing fast when others begin to paddle.

Ramillies

Ramillies has always been held in high regard in Closutton and he was arguably a shade unlucky to be demoted to second place after finishing first past the post in the Grade 3 Ten Up Novice Chase at Naas.

That came on the back of chasing debut success at Thurles and it’s already clear that Ramillies is all about stamina, which bodes well in this contest given the presence of The Real Whacker, who doesn’t like to hang about, and the rain-softened ground.

In fact, the biggest concern may be whether he possesses the requisite gears to stay in contention given the quality of opposition and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he was ridden patiently with the intention of coming home well and snatching a place on the podium.

Galia Des Liteaux

Galia Des Liteux looked like a smart chasing prospect when bolting up in a Listed Mares Chase at Bangor in November and she was sent off a 5/2 shot for the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase next time out, such was the impressive nature of her debut success.

However, things didn’t go to plan on that occasion as she made a significant mistake at the second fence and Harry Skelton decided to take her out of the race before the fourth last fence, citing that the error had knocked her confidence.

Galia Des Liteux bounced back to form at Warwick in January when landing the Grade 2 Hampton Novices’ Chase, winning by 13 lengths in spite of jumping slightly right on occasions.

Obviously that would be less than ideal in a Grade 1 heat at Cheltenham. However, she may jump better in a truly run race and she could easily outperform market expectations.

Thunder Rock

Thunder Rock lacked fluency in the jumping department when placing third behind Gerri Colombe and Balco Coastal in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown and he will need to jump better to stay in contention here. 

Olly Murphy’s seven-year-old filled the same position behind the The Real Whacker in the Dipper Novices’ Chase and the form of his Ascot success in November is working out well as the runner-up, namely Solo, landed the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase on his latest outing.

Stepping up in distance may help with his jumping and his official rating of 150 suggests that he is capable of competing at this level.

Adamantly Chosen

Adamantly Chosen was well supported prior to placing eleventh in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle at the festival last year and he could only place fourth in competitive handicap company at Punchestown six weeks later.

Willie Mullins’ charge had one more run over hurdles before having his attention switched to chasing, and he won his first two starts at Listowel and Punchestown in the manner of a smart prospect.

His fifth placed effort in the Drinmore was fairly disappointing. However, he bounced back to form with runner-up efforts behind Gerri Colombe and Mighty Potter in Grade 1 company and he could easily outperform market expectations if he performs to the peak of his ability.

Bronn

Bronn chased home Gerri Colombe on his chasing debut at Fairyhouse and went one place better at the same venue in January, when defeating subsequent scorer Grandero Bello in battling fashion.

The front pair pulled 22 lengths clear of the third and the manner of Bronn’s victory suggested that he may be better suited to staying trips.

However, this is a steep rise in class and he is probably best watched.

I Am Maximus

I Am Maximus placed fourth in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle on his final start for Nicky Henderson and was sent straight over fences when arriving at Closutton.

The Authorized gelding placed second on his first two outings in December when finding Minella Crooner and Gentlemansgame too good at Fairyhouse and Leopardstown respectively, and he failed to make his presence felt when placing fourth in the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Novice Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival last month.

I Am Maximus was beaten 11 lengths on that occasion and he shaped as though an extra few furlongs could help. However, that probably won’t move the needle enough to make him competitive in this race.

Amarite

Amarite has kept good company since making a successful chasing debut at Fairyhouse in October and his experience in graded company is clearly advantageous.

However, he could only place third behind Thedevilscoachman and Ramillies in the Grade 3 Finlay Ford At Naas Novice Chase in January and he will need to improve markedly on that effort in order to feature here.

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase 2023 Tips & Prediction

Gerri Colombe commands the utmost respect as a dual Grade 1 winner and he has often shaped as though he would thrive over 3 miles.

Gordon Elliott’s charge is unbeaten in seven career outings and he beat a promising horse at Sandown last time out. He proved that he could handle decent ground on that occasion and he ticks virtually every box.

The only box that remains bare relates to course form, as Gerri Colombe is yet to compete outside of Ireland. However, the same cannot be said of dual Cheltenham Festival scorer Sir Gerhard, who achieved by far the most of these over hurdles and is arguably the classiest horse in this race. 

The Cheveley Park Stud runner didn’t see the track until January and he was far from foot perfect over 2 miles at Gowran Park.

His lack of experience and unproven stamina are clearly concerning. However, connections had the choice of all three Grade 1 novice chases and they clearly feel that he can go well here.  

There is, however, one horse whom combines slick jumping with impressive course form and he would arguably be much shorter in the betting if hailing from a more fashionable yard. 

That horse is THE REAL WHACKER, who is 2-2 at Cheltenham and also held an entry in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, which clearly indicates the regard in which he is held.

The Real Whacker is easily the best jumper in this field and he doesn’t like to hang around, which puts pressure on his rivals jumping and forces mistakes on which he can capitalise.

The Dipper Novices’ Chase has been a good trial for this race in recent years and it could easily prove to be so once again.