19:45 Sunday

Sunday Football Tips from Neil Macdonald

Norway vs Spain

Both teams to score: Yes @ 1.87 with Betfair Sportsbook - 1 point

  • Spain secured a 2-0 home victory against Scotland midweek, but their performance didn't particularly impress me. Scott McTominay netted a brilliant free-kick that was, albeit harshly, rightfully overturned by VAR. Additionally, Adams had two promising opportunities late in the game which went uncapitalised.
  • Scotland didn't come to play. A draw would have suited them. They gave up 73% possession and didn't threaten Spain until they fell behind. I expect Norway to be slightly more ambitious in their play here
  • Norway are starting to gather some momentum with four consecutive wins against Cyprus (3-1); Jordan (6-0); Georgia (2-1); and Cyprus again (4-0).
  • In their last meeting with Spain, they failed to score but did generate 0.95xG with two big chances that they failed to convert. We should also note that they didn't have Haaland available for that match, but he will likely start here.
  • Oscar Bobb of Man City (RW) and Antonio Nusa Club Brugge (LW) are also showing a lot of potential and could be called upon if needed.
  • Returning to Erling Haaland: in his games across the Nations League, Friendlies, World Cup, and Euro qualifiers, we observe the striker averaging 1.06 goals per 90 minutes. Remarkably he's scored nine goals in his last seven starts for the national team.
  • Norway needs to win this game, and for other results to favor them, to have any chance at qualifying. So, I don't see them adopting a negative approach.
  • They should also be quietly confident, this Spain team is far from invincible despite scoring 15 goals in their last three outings.
  • They should also be quietly confident; this Spain team is far from invincible, despite netting 15 goals in their last three outings. Spain's back four doesn't instill much confidence in me either. Laporte is currently playing at a lesser competitive level in KSA, Le Normand has earned only five caps, and full-backs Carvajal and Balde have plenty of defensive vulnerabilities.
  • As for Spain scoring, that should be a formality. They average 19.4 attempts, 2.61 xG, and 3.6 goals per 90 minutes. Additionally, Norway struggles to keep clean sheets against opponents of a higher calibre.