Champions Day Tips: Frankie Dettori in Lucky 15 for Ascot Flat Season Finale

Believing 

Highfield Princess was a 109 rated mare before first dropping back to sprinting trips. She had just come 3rd in a 7f Listed Fillies and Mares race at Ascot and previously 4th in a Fillies and Mares Group 3. Less than a year later she won three Group 1’s in a row including two over 5f; the Nunthorpe and the Flying Five. Swingalong started this year, an 107 rated filly, running in the Group 3 Fred Darling Stakes finishing 3rd and I think she is the key to this race. 

Last time out she ran in the Haydock Sprint Cup and she raced on her own up the near side rail that day although a high draw undoubtedly was the place to be. My theory now is that a low draw is critical. 

Both Art Power (Stall 1) and Swingalong (Stall 3) are the only real pace angles in this race against the far side rail. With Art Power unreliable away from the Curragh, I believe the winner will come from either Vadream (2), Swingalong (3), Believing (4) or Rohaan (6). 

In these conditions it’s not simply just about “handling” the ground but relishing it and I therefore cannot put up Swingalong. A horse who does relish these conditions, however, is Vadream (fancied by Andy Holding) whose record over 6f on Soft or Heavy ground of 311. 

After a productive early season, which saw her win a Listed race and a Group 3 (both on Soft ground), she had a 3 month break before being freshened up for this with a run in the Group 3 Bengough Stakes over course and distance. She was 6th in the race last year in reapplied cheekpieces but a sloppy start gave her little hope. She ran well to finish that close but she was clearly on the right side that day. The deeper ground, however, will improve her chances. 

Believing is very interesting after coming 3rd in the Haydock Sprint Cup. She’s another filly who started this season in a 7f Group 3 and has now improved significantly for the switch to sprinting. Her 2nd highest RPR was on soft ground when she won a Group 3 in France and the stiff finish here could bring out her stamina. George Boughey opted for cheekpieces after she drifted around at Haydock. 

Rohaan was an incredibly unlucky 4th in the race last year having been drawn on the wrong side. Drawn in Stall 6, he was 1st on the far side group but the first three home were drawn 17, 14, 13. Indeed, the next three home behind Rohaan all had a double figure draw. It is only until you get to Art Power in 8th where single figure draws start appearing. 

He returned to winning ways last time out over course and distance to show he’s in form. However, it has to be said that he looks a lesser version of himself from last year. He’s rated 8lb inferior and his results have reflected that. Although he’s got conditions in his favour and he’s drawn on the right side this year, he just doesn’t seem the same horse and has to be passed over. 

Vadream is certainly the safer option having thoroughly proved her liking for the ground and possessing Course and Distance form, but I want to chance the filly BELIEVING who’s over 3 times the price and has more improvement to come.

Bluestocking 

Frankie Dettori sits on another favourite in race three as Free Wind looks to bounce back from a disappointing run in the Arc. Returning to fillies and mares company will undoubtedly help but it’s difficult to know about the ground. She won the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks last year on soft ground but looked out on her feet in the Lillie Langtry this year on heavy. 

These performances have also represented her 2nd best and worst RPR’s to give a confusing puzzle. Regardless at 10/3 she’s worth opposing in a race which has a maximum field of 14 and an open look to it. 

The one I’ve landed on is BLUESTOCKING for the in-form Ralph Beckett yard. Although yet to win this season, she’s got some consistently eye-catching form. 3rd in the Ribblesdale over course and distance, she faced traffic problems as the race was developing and stayed on very well to get 3rd. Next time out she finished 2nd in the Irish Oaks on soft ground behind Oaks 2nd Savethelastdance. Importantly she seemed to relish the ground that day. 

She ran a similar race when 4th in the Yorkshire Oaks on fast ground where the aforementioned Free Wind was in front of her in 2nd. The race was run truly which helped Bluestocking engage with her stamina reserves but the fast ground and mild finish just weren’t her ideal conditions. Now back on soft ground, in first time cheekpieces and facing an incline finish, I think she could go very close at 10/1. 

Facteur Cheval 

When looking at this race I couldn’t understand the difference between the price of Paddington and FACTEUR CHEVAL. Undoubtedly Paddington deserves to be a strong favourite, but I expected Jerome Reynier’s raider to be a single figure price at the very least. Quotes of 14/1 seem to be excessive and so I want his inclusion in our Lucky 15. 

The above two clashed in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood where Paddington emerged victorious by a length and a half. However, having won the Eclipse less than a month earlier and having his 6th run of the season, Paddington was arguably peaking whereas Facteur Cheval was off the back of a two-month break after his 3rd in the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan. 

Moreover, Facteur Cheval had a far more interrupted passage through as the runners all congregated up the near side rail. If you add into account that he was giving Paddington 7lbs that day and he now only gives him 3lb, then the price differential seems wrong. He’ll love the forecast soft ground and he can go close to causing an upset here. 

King Of Steel

It wouldn’t be right to go through Frankie’s last Champions Day and not put up one of his mounts. Although he has excellent chances throughout the day, I do think that KING OF STEEL could be the one worth including especially considering the prices.

King Of Steel is included in Architect Tips’ Frankie Dettori Champions Day Treble.

Although he won the King Edward VII Stakes over course and distance, I think it’s become clear to connections that a strongly run, stamina sapping 10 furlongs is what he wants after he weakened in the King George but got going too late on good ground and a flat track at Leopardstown. 

The ground has certainly come for Bay Bridge and punters may be cautious about King of Steel especially when looking at his lacklustre display in last year’s Racing Post Trophy on heavy. 

However, he was pitched into a Group 1 on only his 2nd start. His Sire Wooton Bassett won the Grand Criterion at Longchamp on bottomless ground and it must be remember that King of Steel won his first ever start at Nottingham on very soft ground. He can give Frankie Dettori one last flying dismount.