Paddy Power Gold Cup tips, runners and prediction for Saturday’s feature race at Cheltenham’s November Meeting.
Paddy Power Gold Cup
There are 14 entries for the 2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham on Saturday, featuring last year's Turners Novices' Chase 1-2. Architect Tips takes us through each of the runners before giving his tips and prediction for the race.
2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup Runners Guide
The Real Whacker
Heading the weights is The Real Whacker, who might have only recorded just one win from four hurdle starts but improved both physically and mentally when switched to fences last season, establishing himself to be one of the best British-trained novice chasers last season with a flawless three-from-three wins campaign.
He is a very sound and nimble jumper who is unbeaten in three starts over fences, and all three of his wins have coincidentally transpired at Cheltenham, with the latest of those coming in the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices' Chase at the Festival, where he led the whole way from the front and held off the late challenge of Gerri Colombe by a head.
He is a chaser of the highest quality and remains the only horse to have defeated Gerri Colombe to date, with the latter making a triumphant return to action last weekend in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase to advertise the strength of the form. He also won the Grade 2 Dipper Novices' Chase over this trip, and there appears to be very few chinks in his armour.
The only issue is the weight, though. Given in the last 20 runnings, only one top weight has overcome the statistic: Al Ferof in 2012. The seven-year-old is required to carry 12st this weekend, and it is possible he won’t be fully tuned for this race with bigger assignments to come later in the season but form-wise, he is contrastingly the best horse in the race.
In addition, there’s room for further improvement, and he has buckets of staying power and natural class under the bonnet. For win purposes, he is evidently a touch vulnerable, but needless to say, he is sure to give it a good go from the front and is meticulously a solid choice for an each-way bet to finish in the first five at least, with most firms paying extra places.
Stage Star
Ran a stinker when pulled up in the Ballymore last year on his first start at Cheltenham but has proved he can handle the undulations of the course having won a competitive novice handicap chase off top weight on Festival Trials Day in January. He then followed up with a Grade 1 victory in the Turners Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March.
He was below par in the Manifesto Novices' Chase at Aintree when last seen, but I’m inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt because that came after a busy campaign that probably caught up with him. I have no doubt he is a top-class horse, though, who has vastly been underestimated so far in his career, with two Grade 1 wins under his belt.
He goes well when fresh, with a first-time out record of 111 from three starts. His jumping is consistently good, and his trainer, Paul Nicholls, has won this twice in the past, following the successes of Al Ferof and Caid Du Berlais. He likes to front-run, so he might get taken on for the lead, but won’t lack fitness, given that his trainer often leaves no stone unturned. His chance is there for all to see.
Fugitif
Richard Hobson’s smart chaser regularly competed in these types of handicaps at this course last season and put in huge efforts in defeat in all of those three starts, finishing runner-up each time, including at the Cheltenham Festival.
He was outclassed on his final start of the season in the Marsh Chase at Aintree when beaten 31 lengths, though, and I get the impression that the assessor has caught up with him for now, so a new personal best would definitely be required.
If the ground turns out to be soft or worse, then that will play to his strengths, and he certainly won’t disgrace himself, but others look better treated, and therefore I assume he will find a few too good at the finish. Opposed.
Authorized Art
He completed a hat-trick of wins in this sphere between July and October last year after a promising second on his chase debut, but has been winless since. That said, the fitting of cheekpieces has signalled a resurgence in form the last twice, with a second in the Galway Plate prior to backing that up with an excellent fourth in the Kerry National.
The handicapper has reacted by shuffling his mark up a further 2Ib, which is potentially quite harsh, but he won his only previous start over this shorter trip, and Willie Mullins wouldn’t be sending him over to compete in this race without good intention. He’s an outsider who could run better than his current price suggests, but from a winning perspective, the temptation is to look elsewhere.
Notlongtillmay
One of two representatives for Laura Morgan, who recorded a pair of wide-margin novice victories over fences over a similar trip in the lead-up to the Cheltenham Festival before running a screamer when belying outside odds of 40/1 in the Turner’s Novices’ Chase to take second behind Stage Star.
Importantly, the seven-year-old has a run under his belt, having run well off top-weight over an unfavourable distance at Cheltenham on his return when fourth, in which he performed far better than his literal three-and-a-half length defeat implied. This has clearly been his early-season target, and he has room for plenty more improvement.
Whether he has the mentality to handle such a competitive race at this stage of his career remains to be seen, but he is unexposed after just nine career starts, gets a 3Ib pull with Stage Star on collateral Festival form and could be the horse to provide trainer Laura Morgan with a first winner at the track.
Final Orders
The Gavin Cromwell-trained seven-year-old could be an interesting outsider who has excelled over the past 13 months, winning eight of his last 13 starts, including on the flat, over hurdles, and over fences.
He won five on the spin over fences last season but has disappointed in his last three in this code and never figured at Chepstow five weeks ago.
He has been eased a couple of pounds by the handicapper, though, and if you take his jockey’s 7Ib claim into account, he is eligible to compete in this with a 7Ib lower mark than when he finished fifth in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival earlier this year.
He is therefore feasibly well-treated, and, traditionally, his form around this time of year is relatively strong, so the Irish raider cannot be ruled out.
Unexpected Party
He must be considered a major player on the back of his impressive Listed win at Chepstow on his return, given that he comfortably beat Knappers Hill, who went into that contest with a mark of 153, and amplified the form by returning an excellent winner of a Grade 2 at Wincanton last weekend.
That was undoubtedly a career-best, but he might have been flattered, given the runner-up was debuting over fences. He ran to a decent level last season, including when fifth in the Turners, but even after that latest win, he has work to do to reverse form with a few of these, but that is not inconceivable.
He has finished behind Stage Star twice now but has improved since, gets a 9lb pull with Stage Star this time, and a mark of 146 looks fairly manageable in his first test outside of novice company. The race will be run to suit, he travels and jumps well, and he should be thereabouts in the latter stages.
Il Ridoto
Another runner from the Paul Nicholls camp, who has some strong course form to his name but never looked happy over the national fences in the Topham at Aintree last time when pulled up, and all of a sudden has something to prove at present.
He had previously chalked up a good string of efforts at Cheltenham, including when beating Fugitif in the Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase over course-and-distance back in January on Trials Day.
The booking of Freddie Gingell catches the eye too, who will be full of confidence after Grade Two success in the Betway Haldon Gold Cup aboard Elixir De Nutz at Exeter last week.
He can offset his mark of 144 with a valuable 7Ib, which theoretically means his mount can compete in this year’s renewal off 138, the same mark as when he won here in January.
He finished fourth in this race 12 months ago, and should conditions hold firm, he will be fine on the ground. I can see him running well, but he is passed over from a betting perspective as others hold more compelling claims.
Whistleinthedark
While Notlongtillmay appears to be the stable’s first string, this eight-year-old, who is unbeaten over fences, should not be written off in haste. He won all four starts over fences last season, which culminated in his mark going from 113 to 144. The initial plan was for him to have a prep run, but nevertheless, he will be ready, and the way he dispatched two former Grade 1 winners with the minimum of fuss at Perth last time was impressive.
In fact, all of his chase form has worked out comparatively well, and his record over 2m4f (including hurdles form) reads 1321. I have no doubt he would be half the odds he currently is if trained by one of the bigger yards, and I doubt for one second that he has finished improving too. This race will require a new personal best to come out on top, but he might yet find the necessary improvement and get himself into the shake-up. Interesting.
Angels Breath
A talented but fragile nine-year-old who has infamously been tricky to keep in one piece but looks potentially thrown in here off a mark of 144, given the early promise he had shown before injury.
In just his second start over fences, at Ascot, he crushed Grade 1 winner First Flow, and the latter reached a peak rating of 166. He won his first two starts in this sphere before returning from a long absence to contest a race that was full of horses rated in the 150-160s at Kempton.
He was pulled up that day but did fare a touch better when second at Chepstow. Still, his handler Sam Thomas gave him a spin over hurdles on his return to this course last month, and he shaped promisingly with a staying-on second.
It was clear that run was used to protect his chase mark, and if it wasn’t for his fragilities, he would probably be pushing for favouritism. He is favoured by the weights, is on a perfect-looking mark, and could make up for lost time with a massive performance here.
Black Gerry
A bit of an all-or-nothing character, who either won or was pulled up in every start last season, with form figures of 1PP11. He beat a useful field at Plumpton when last seen, but this is a whole different ball game, and the lack of a recent run is a concern.
Conversely, though, his connections know what it takes to win this race, given that Jamie and Gary Moore won the 2018 renewal with Baron Alco. He is likely to outrun his odds, but maybe a place is the best he can hope for on his return at this daunting level.
Easy As That
He has won five of his nine starts under rules and bagged a pair of chase wins last season, but he jumped poorly when beaten a long way at Sandown, and this is a tough task in order to bounce back to form. It is interesting to see the money has come for him, though, and his trainer is in excellent form as well.
It remains early days, and he should have more to offer, but his odds seem skinny heading into a better race than he is used to, and I don’t think he is that well-handicapped on the pick of his form. If he wins, then fair enough, as I am happy to leave him alone.
Torn And Frayed
He produced a career-best performance out of nowhere to collect a Grade 3 race back in January, where he jumped and travelled really well before pulling clear to score by six lengths.
He has a hefty absence to overcome, but his handler has won this race three times since 2008, and this nine-year-old has snuck into this race near the foot of the weights off a handy mark of 135.
To win this after 658 days off the track would be some performance and training feat, but that looks like a tall order against this calibre of opposition, so more is needed. Best watched.
Harper’s Brook
Ben Pauling’s only representative will receive weight from the whole field. He has attracted some market support despite his dismal record around Cheltenham.
He has yet to beat a rival nor complete his other two starts at this course, though he did run well for a long time in the Ultima before he became a spent force, having done too much too soon over the longer distance.
He is favoured by the weights and is sitting on a dangerous mark, but his sole chase win is only moderate form, and I think he will be outclassed against these.
2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup Odds: Who is the favourite?
Stage Star is the marginal bookmakers' favourite for the 2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham's November Meeting (best price 11/2 at the time of writing).
Last year's Brown Advisory winner, The Real Whacker, is the second favourite for the race at 7/1, the same price available for Notlongtillmay (beaten into 2nd by Stage Star in the 2023 Turners Novices' Chase).
2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup Tips & Prediction
An ultra-strong line-up, as you would expect for the Paddy Power Gold Cup. I am confident about the chances of STAGE STAR (best price 11/2), who I know is an original choice to the eye, but he is unbeaten first-time-out, won his Grade 1 over course-and-distance in March earlier this year, and has been aimed at this contest for a long time.
He has already beaten the likes of Notlongtillmay and Unexpected Party very comfortably and brings the best piece of course-and-distance form to the table. I think the drop in trip, big weight, and lack of a run are enough to sway The Real Whacker in favour of Paul Nicholls’ charge, who has an excellent chance.
Harry Cobden has stayed loyal to him, picking him over last year’s fourth Il Ridoto, which is a positive sign too. This dual Grade 1 winner represents cracking odds, in my opinion, and can hand Paul Nicholls a third win in the race. He is a strong-way recommendation, with firms such as Bet365 paying five places.
