Ante-post preview and betting tips for the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow.
Welsh Grand National
Architect Tips has looked at the leading protagonists and given two betting tips for the Welsh Grand National on December 27th at Chepstow.
Welsh Grand National Ante-Post Betting Preview
Who is the favourite for the Welsh Grand National 2023?
With original favourite Monbeg Genius scratched from the confirmation stage on Thursday following a setback, bookmakers appointed Jamie Snowden’s Super Survivor as the new 5/1 favourite for the Coral Welsh Grand National. A former winner of the race, Iwilldoit, is in close proximity as a second favourite at a general 15/2 chance.
The seven-year-old has yet to finish out of the frame in all seven starts under rules and has a win and three placed efforts from four starts over fences. His profile is attractive, but he’s light on experience, and there’s not enough evidence to suggest he is crying out for this major step up in distance in this higher grade.
Personally, I think he’s favourite by default rather than substance, as his form in this sphere isn’t strong, given that he was comfortably beaten by a 130-rated horse in his penultimate start. Maybe he will prove me wrong, but, in my opinion, he’s far too short in the betting, with huge improvement needed if he’s to make the frame, let alone come out on top.
Can Iwilldoit rule again?
Iwilldoit, who produced a scintillating performance in this race two years ago when scoring by nine lengths, warmed up for this with an excellent second at Aintree over hurdles. The 10-year-old then claimed Warwick’s Classic Chase in his next start, ploughing through the mud to defy a mark of 147.
He wasn’t quite at his best in the Midlands National in his next start when a distant fifth, but he’s 2Ib lower in the handicap returned to this sphere, and there was a lot to like about the way he conducted himself when beaten only two lengths by Gentleman At Arms on his return.
In turn, his effort can be markedly upgraded, as he conceded over a stone in weight to the race-fit, well-handicapped winner and Sam Thomas’ charge will be fitter now. Any rain would certainly aid his cause too, and that seems likely, with the rain forecast throughout race day.
But another personal best is required if he’s to defy a mark of 153. Since the race was formed in 1948, there have only been two dual winners, so he has an almighty task on his hands, to say the least. That said, we know he won’t lack stamina and should be thereabouts.
Fifth time lucky for Truckers?
It has been a captivating season for the combination of Paul Nicholls’ charge and young rising star Freddie Gingell, who teamed up to win the West Wales National at Ffos Las and the London National at Sandown a few weeks ago, where he battled all the way to the line and rallied to beat hot favourite Beauport.
The longevity of this veteran is remarkable, plus he has made the frame in three renewals of the race, which is an achievement in itself. All four attempts at this previously were off marks of 139 when second in 2019, 155 when seventh in 2020, 150 when third in 2021, and 141 when fourth last year.
He is tough and tenacious, and Freddie has been the key to his resurgence in form. With a mark of 137 (despite carrying a penalty), he must have a solid chance of placing again, at least, as he bids to emulate the last dual winner, Mountainous, who coincidentally was the last 11-year-old to take Chepstow’s highlight.
An Iron performance could be forthcoming
Jonjo O’Neill’s main hopeful, Monbeg Genius, might have been scratched, but it would be foolish to rule out a positive display from stablemate Iron Bridge at large odds, who should derive from the step-up in trip and the anticipated slower ground.
He ran poorly on his return, but better will be expected this weekend. After just six chase starts, he is open to a lot more improvement than most of these and has looked like he would really appreciate a thorough test of stamina in most of his starts, which is what he will get in this contest.
He was unlucky not to beat Autonomous Cloud a couple of starts back at Uttoxeter after being beaten just a head into second when giving the winner 12Ib and is better off at the weights this time, which gives him every chance of turning the tables, yet the price differential between the pair is huge and incorrect.
If you put a line through his latest showing, I have no doubt he would be in single digits. At double-figure odds, he is an outsider to consider carrying the colours of the late Trevor Hemmings, who enjoyed plenty of success in similar events over the years.
Welsh Grand National Tips
As can be expected, this is going to be a war of attrition over the 3m6f on rain-softened ground. If it’s a repeat of last year, expect there to be a small number of finishers again. Despite this looking like a wide-open edition of the race on paper, I am bullish about the chances of a couple of participants.
The first one is a horse who has given us some great days on the tipping side, the Paul Nicholls-trained TRUCKERS LODGE (best price 14/1) who will also be ridden by Freddie Gingell, a jockey who has given us some great success in the tipping department too and can be backed with most firms offering four places.
This 11-year-old has run in this race four times, placing in three, and this doesn’t look like a vintage renewal. He stays well, jumps well, and has shown a resurgence in form under this rider. From his lowest mark in this race, including being 2Ib lower than when second in the 2019 version, he is a serious each-way contender.
Tip: Truckers Lodge 0.5 pts E/W @ 14/1 bet365
The Jonjo O'Neill-trained IRON BRIDGE (best price 16/1) is the other runner I want on my side. He is completely unexposed to staying distances, having his first track at such a test, and his reappearance run can easily be ignored.
He should be matched a lot closer to Autonomous Cloud on the Uttoxeter form, and he already has two wins to his name over fences. He might not have been the stable's main player initially before Monbeg Genius was pulled out, but he’s got the right profile for a race like this.
With conditions set to be slow, which will suit the seven-year-old, he has a decent chance of emulating Synchronised, who won this for his handler 13 years ago. I am adamant that he’s overpriced and must be backed, with most bookmakers offering a generous four places.
