Architect Tips previews the Cheltenham Gold Cup and shares two ante-post tips for the Festival’s blue riband race.
Cheltenham Gold Cup 2024
With the Christmas period now firmly behind us, all roads now lead to the 2024 Cheltenham Festival.
Over the last couple of weeks, we have seen plenty of horses put their credentials for the Festival to the test. In this week’s ante-post column, we look ahead to the feature race of the four-day meeting - The Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Click here to read this week’s Road to Cheltenham preview.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Ante-Post Preview
The two big races over Christmas in terms of Cheltenham Gold Cup aspirations were the King George VI Chase at Kempton and the Savills Chase at Leopardstown. The outcome of each race had major implications on the ante-post market for the blue riband race in March.
Shishkin enhances Gold Cup claims despite inexplicable King George fall
In the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day, Allaho was sent off as the favourite with defending champion Bravemansgame second favourite.
Neither of the pair looked at their best, as they could only finish second and third to Hewick, who stayed on best on the run-in to claim his biggest win of his career.
However, the main talking point post-race was the unfortunate departure of Shishkin, who, in my mind, would have won the race quite comfortably had he not inexplicably slipped a stride after the second last fence when sending Nico crashing to the canvas when two lengths clear of his rivals.
A change to more prominent tactics than is usually the case certainly contributed to an improved display from this high-class nine-year-old, who applied early pressure to Frodon and once the former champion began to backpedal, Nicky Henderson’s charge took up the lead at the 12th fence.
Soon after, it became apparent that the two-time Cheltenham Festival winner was going to be hard to beat, as he got himself into a lovely rhythm. One by one, his rivals were under pressure to keep tabs on him, and once he injected more pace, he found himself two lengths clear of the field, approaching the second last fence.
He appeared to jump the fence perfectly fine, but unfortunately took a false step and shipped Nico out of the side door. Many believe Hewick, who produced a late surge to overhaul the two that were left in front of him, would have caught him, but I’m convinced Shishkin was pulling away from the field without being asked for maximum efforts before he departed.
Nevertheless, the sectionals proved he wasn’t stopping at the time of disaster, and although this race didn’t go according to plan, it certainly didn’t do his Gold Cup credentials any harm. He has been to Cheltenham and done it on the biggest stage twice, so the fact that he is still available at 12/1 is indeed appealing.
If he had not stumbled, he would have returned an impressive winner and would be trading at a single-figure price. Clearly, being ridden more prominently suits this horse, and if he turns up in the same form at Cheltenham, he could be the horse to give the defending champion Galopin Des Champs most to think about.
No excuses for Bravemansgame and Allaho
Bravemansgame ran a good race to finish second despite being hampered by Shishkin’s mistake, and Paul Nicholls will try to get him in top shape for March, but he doesn’t seem to be improving, and he will do well to top last year’s second.
Allaho’s main target will be the Ryanair, but he underperformed here given that he had everything fall into his lap and still couldn’t get the job done when left clear. I am struggling to make any excuse for each of them, who were beaten fair and square.
Hewick will need more in March
The winner, Hewick, was flat to the boards practically throughout the race and picked up the pieces under a great persisting ride from Gavin Sheehan, who is a jockey having an incredible season. However, he was beaten before he fell in the Gold Cup last year, and he is unlikely to get good ground in March like he did here.
He could make the frame, but I have an inclination that Shishkin is just a better horse judged on all known form lines and the King George form. Some will see his current odds of 16/1 as value, and he will have his supporters, but I will be surprised if he’s able to beat the best of Ireland. The interference that happened in the King George certainly helped him succeed. I am not knocking his performance, but in my opinion he was a fortunate winner.
Galopin masterclass in the Savills
The most impressive performance came in the Savills Chase, though, as Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Galopin Des Champs bounced back to his brilliant best as he demolished a top-class field by 23 lengths in what was arguably a career-best performance and his best performance since winning the Gold Cup last season.
The Willie Mullins-trained gelding, who had been turned over by Fastorslow in his two previous starts, was facing stern opposition including Gerri Colombe, who was touted to be his biggest danger on paper. However, he had no answer to the raw power and class of Willie Mullins' charge, who must have every chance of retaining his crown at the Cheltenham Festival.
He is evidently a better horse going left-handed, as his only two completed starts over fences were at Punchestown going the other way around. Even though Fastorslow was pulled out of the Savills Chase, I just cannot see how he would have beaten the Gold Cup winner, who appeared to be in a different parish to the remainder. It was an exceptional and unbeatable performance, to say the least.
Gerri ran below form
Gerri Colombe ran an “ok” race to take second, given it was just his second start outside of novice company, but he has a mountain to climb to bridge the gap on the winner in March. It is plausible to suggest he will do that, with the longer trip sure to play to his strengths, but to come out on top, he will need a big personal best.
It is slightly alarming that he was only a head in front of Capodanno, and let’s face it, that horse won’t be winning a Gold Cup anytime soon, so Gordon Elliott’s charge has work to do.
Look out for L’Homme Presse’s return
Venetia Williams has confirmed L’Homme Presse is on track to make his comeback at Lingfield during the Winter Million Festival. This former Cheltenham Festival winner has not been seen since unseating Charlie Deutsch in the 2022 King George VI Chase when set to finish second.
He missed out on a shot at the race last season, but he’s been given time to get over that mishap and is a general 16/1 chance.
He will make his return in the Fleur de Lys Chase, and if he wins that impressively, he will attract the attention of the public for the Gold Cup. It will be interesting to see if the nine-year-old is still the force he was, and if he is, he could be an outsider to consider.
Cheltenham Gold Cup 2024 Ante-Post Tips
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (best price 11/10) remains a backable price at the odds to potentially repeat his Gold Cup heroics in a couple of months, and based on this performance, it is difficult to see anything beating him if he turns up in similar form.
That is likely the case, and the application of being ridden closer to the pace at Leopardstown no doubt saw him to the best effect. Similar tactics will likely be deployed at Cheltenham.
I can see him going off odds-on favourite on the day, possibly odds-on, so the still-available odds at a bigger price than when he won last time does make him of serious interest from an ante-post stance.
Yes, Fastorslow has beat him twice, but the Gold Cup winner wasn’t at his best in both defeats and had excuses, and I am confident he will beat him very well when they meet again in March.
Galopin Des Champs, 2pts WIN, 11/10
The value for the race outside of the favourite has to be SHISHKIN (best price 12/1), who was very unlucky in the King George. If he can put in a clear round in the Gold Cup, there’s every reason to think he will fill the frame at the very least.
Whether he has the ammunition to beat the favourite is open to debate, but he’s not one to be written off and should run well if he gets to Cheltenham in one piece.
