Architect Tips previews the ante-post market for the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase at Cheltenham.
Brown Advisory Novices Chase
In the latest part of my Cheltenham Festival ante-post series, I am looking ahead to the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices' Chase. My key points are as follows:
- Grangeclare West form is questionable
- Fact To File a strong fancy
- Stay Away Fay must be respected
- Minella Cocooner offers value at a big price
Brown Advisory Novices' Chase 2024 Preview
Grangeclare West form is questionable
Trainer Willie Mullins, who has won this five times in his career, unsurprisingly has a stranglehold on the ante-post market for this year’s renewal, with the top two in betting featuring Grangeclare West, the current 3/1 favourite.
This eight-year-old landed a Punchestown bumper and a maiden hurdle at Navan on his first two appearances under rules, and while he failed to derive from that early promise in a pair of Grade 1 races later that season, he recaptured the winning thread when he had his sights lowered at Punchestown last April.
Since then, he’s won both his chase starts in good style, having made all at Navan on his chase debut last month prior to beating a quality field in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase when stepped up to three miles. His impressive display saw bookmakers install him as the 3/1 favourite for this likely target.
However, I’m inclined to suggest the horses he beat, including Corbetts Cross and Flooring Porter, underperformed. He will need to raise his game to succeed at the Cheltenham Festival in this deeper race, but he could do so, with his assured jumping likely to come into play at a course that favours that main ingredient.
Fact To File a strong fancy
Although he is also entered in the Turners, the one runner who I do think will go right to the top of the staying chase division and compete in this race instead of the former is his stablemate, Fact To File.
Last season’s Champion Bumper runner-up twice chased home A Dream To Share, and despite being turned over on his chase debut when second to American Mike, he made no mistake in powering success by 17 lengths in the Ballymaloe Relish Rising Stars Beginners Chase.
Willie Mullins has spoken highly of this horse for a very long time now, and the way the seven-year-old made some high-class horses look fairly average last time out, with the likes of Zanahiyr and Minella Cocooner, was visually impressive.
Willie has the option of running this talented, athletically well-built performer in the Turners Novices’ Chase instead, but he would be up against his other stablemate, Gaelic Warrior.
The Brown Advisory would be a more logical option, as I feel as though he’s capable of beating Grangeclare West, and while he does possess gears, I think we will see even better of this horse over three miles plus rather than staying at an intermediate distance.
Click here for this week's Road to Cheltenham preview.
Currently favourite for The Ladbrokes Novice Steeplechase over 2m5f at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown on February 4th, should he take the spoils, then I presume the 5/1 odds about him for this race will not last, and he might even become favourite.
Not often does Willie Mullins send a horse straight over fences from a bumper race, but he did so with Florida Pearl back in the day, and the way he expressed his thoughts about this horse by describing him as everything you want in a chaser is noteworthy, to say the least.
Stay Away Fay must be respected
Paul Nicholls will no doubt feel satisfied with the performance that Stay Away Fay delivered in the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase on Trials Day at Cheltenham.
Last year’s Albert Bartlett winner was up against it at the weights given all of his rivals were rated a lot higher than him, but he acquitted himself very well in defeat after winning his first couple of chase starts, including a Grade 2 race.
He jumped and travelled well and briefly looked like he was going to win comfortably until he was caught out for a bit of pace after the final fence, but kept on well to be third, and that should have put him spot on for this contest.
His experience with the course is a major plus, and he has plenty more to come. At around 6/1, he should be in the frame, but I do wonder if the National Hunt Chase would suit him better, as I believe he’s a future Grand National player.
Minella Cocooner offers value at a big price
According to plenty of theories going about, Willie Mullins’ Minella Cocooner is likely to go for the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, but I reckon this Grade 1 winning hurdler will be supplemented for the Brown Advisory, given the fact his best form has come over three miles.
I don’t think it’s necessary to be stepping him up to 3m5f when he’s proven that three miles is his optimum distance. His form figures under rules read four wins, four seconds, and a third from nine starts.
A couple of seasons ago, he established himself as one of the best staying novice hurdlers, as he won a Grade 1 at Leopardstown before chasing home his undefeated stablemate The Nice Guy twice in consecutive Grade 1 races at the Cheltenham and Punchestown Festivals.
He ran well on his chase debut after a layoff to finish second to Classic Getaway, and although he was well beaten behind Fact To File next time, he opened his account next time at Navan over three miles on testing ground by nearly three lengths.
Brown Advisory Novices' Chase Odds
| Name | Best Odds | Worst Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Grangeclare West | 9/2 | 3/1 |
| Fact To File | 5/1 | 7/2 |
| Stay Away Fay | 6/1 | 4/1 |
| Grey Dawning | 7/1 | 5/1 |
| Embassy Gardens | 12/1 | 8/1 |
Brown Advisory Novices' Chase Ante-Post Tips
I just cannot help but be impressed with the way FACT TO FILE jumped and travelled last time out before injecting pace into the race at the third last fence, which ultimately left a pair of Grade 1 winners trailing in his wake.
Willie won’t be in a rush to make a decision as to which race he runs in, but if he runs in this, I think he’ll win it. He has given every indication of being a potential Cheltenham Gold Cup contender in the next couple of seasons.
Betting Tip: Fact To File, 2pts WIN, 5/1
I am confident we haven’t seen the best of MINELLA COCOONER over fences, and we know he acts around Cheltenham given his runner-up effort in the Albert Bartlett a couple of seasons ago. At 33/1, he is worth an each-way investment, as I expect him to improve significantly come March.
