Andy Holding’s NRNB Cheltenham tips ahead of this weekend’s Dublin Racing Festival.
Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle
The Dublin Racing Festival, as it has done since its inception, has proved to be the chief form line for all the novice races at Cheltenham in March and this season is likely to be no different, with many sets of connections using the two days of graded action to finalise their plans.
With so many of the participants at the Festival in March receiving multiple entries, one of the few ways for punters to gain an edge in the ante post markets is to read between the lines regarding how a certain trainer might be thinking. In the case of PREDATORS GOLD, the conclusion drawn is he may well turn out to be a horse suited by distances way beyond two miles.
Although he received an entry in the two mile contest at the DRF on Sunday, and he ran over the minimum trip in the Grade 1 over the Christmas period, he left the impression a month ago he might require a stiffer test to be seen to best advantage in future and that’s why connections are allowing the son of Masked Marvel to prove that point in the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Novice Hurdle over 2m6f on Saturday.
Likely to be sent off favourite for that Grade 1, the five-year-old undoubtably has the best form heading into the contest courtesy of his excellent performance behind Caldwell Potter in the Future Champions Novices Hurdle at the Dublin track over the Christmas period and in a race that looks like revolving around those housed at the Closutton yard, he rates a strong fancy to come out on top.
Putting it another way, there’s no way any of his other three stable companions would have finished a close-up second in Grade 1 over two miles and when you consider he beat the unbeaten Down Memory Lane by 38 lengths and the likes of the well-regarded trio, Daddy Long Legs (impressive maiden hurdle winner), Absurde (Ebor winner) and The Big Doyen (third in a Grade 2) were absolutely punch drunk coming out of the back straight, it puts into context his effort in the best race of its kind run so far this season.
In an ideal world, connections would probably prefer if this race were 2m4f, but at least it’s one good way of finding out whether he’s a Baring Bingham or Albert Bartlett horse and what better way to get all the answers they need while potentially snaring a Grade 1 along the way.
Looking at the rest of Willie Mullins’ squad that could go for the opener on day two of the festival, there seems to be a seismic shift in the thinking behind Ballyburn, who was quite rightly installed a short-priced favourite for the Baring Bingham after a 25-length demolition job of two subsequent winners over 2m4f at the Christmas meeting.
Since then, however, all the gossip has suggested the son of Flemensfirth will head back down the two-mile route and if he comes through his latest assignment on Sunday with flying colours, the Supreme will be his next obvious objective.
Mystical Power is almost certain to stay in the same lane following his convincing display in the Moscow Flyer at Punchestown recently and because he’s owned by JP McManus, there shouldn’t be any need for a conflict of interest with Ballyburn.
Although Reading Tommy Wrong won the Lawlor's Of Naas on merit, the fact he was allowed to go off 16/1 (the outsider of the Mullins quartet) tells its own story and whether his jumping is good enough to win at Cheltenham is another moot point. Runner-up in the same race, Ile Atlantique is an admirable type but there is a school of thought he might have a slight glass chin, so he is hard to recommend for any race at the festival at this stage.
Billericay Dickie was impressive on the eye when making a successful Irish debut at Punchestown the other day, but he won in a very slow time and it’s hard to believe he is a shorter price than Predators Gold, even allowing for the fact he is open to any amount of improvement.
Lecky Watson and High Class Hero look more Albert Bartlett types at this stage.Of the other main two in Saturday’s race, Loughglynn looks more an Albert Bartlett type, while I Will Be Baie could turn out to be the main threat based on the way he made the useful My Trump Card look slow at Fairyhouse last time out.
Although very tempting to push all chips into the middle of the table and take the best possible position about Predators Gold for the most logical target, The Baring Bingham, the safest option is to take advantage of the firms who are currently going NRNB and back him for the Albert Bartlett just in case all plans look totally different when the dust settles come Sunday evening.
PREDATORS GOLD – 1-point win @ 12/1 NRNB – Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
