Architect Tips has two ante-post tips for the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham.
National Hunt Chase
The National Hunt Chase can be recognised as a love-hate spectacle with punters. However, it's a race I thoroughly enjoy and past history tells us that the best horses often come to the fore.
This race predominantly requires a horse who stays and jumps well and has a touch of class, so with this in mind, two horses have taken my interest from an ante-post perspective.
National Hunt Chase 2024 Preview
Take on the favourite Embassy Gardens
Willie Mullins’ Embassy Gardens is the current 10/3 favourite on Betfair following a pair of bloodless wins over fences, but even though he hacked up over 3m1f when last spotted, this longer trip will really test his stamina reserve, and that remains inconclusive.
It is worth remembering how keenly he raced in last year’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle when well fancied for the race prior to his non-completion.
Those early excursions took a major toll on him in the backend of the race, as he weakened quickly once headed and was promptly pulled up before the last hurdle.
While he has undoubtedly matured since and is starting to realise his potential, I’m just not convinced that he wants a stiff test of stamina such as this, and at the odds, I am happy to oppose him in favour of better value elsewhere.
Mullins’ Grangeclare West could outclass the field
Since publishing my Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase piece in which I questioned Grangeclare West’s form, I have had a change of heart and have come to the conclusion that this longer distance could well be up his street.
Willie Mullins has often expressed how this horse would be seen at his best when going up in trip, and so it proved in his Grade 1 win last time out.
Emmet Mullins could be set to run Corbetts Cross, but if he is the second favourite at 9/2 (best price on Coral), then surely Grangeclare West should be a lot shorter than the 12/1 price tag that’s still available.
The likelihood is that he’ll line up in the Brown Advisory, for which he is 9/2, but Willie Mullins often plays his cards close to his chest, so a decision as to which race he runs in will be made late.
He was due to take on stablemates Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File at the Dublin Racing Festival but was pulled out. What’s really interesting, though, is that Patrick Mullins was eager to ride him, and it is possible he wanted to get a feel for him in case they do run him in this marathon event. Surely, if he is declared, then he is going to be the favourite, having destroyed Corbetts Cross when last spotted.
He is a seriously good jumper who has plenty of pace, and the slower nature of this contest could really see his jumping come into serious effect. I would much prefer his chances instead of Embassy Gardens. Minella Cocooner would take my interest if he were declared, but the Brown Advisory trip will suit him better, while his other stable companion Nick Rockett is held on a strict reading through Corbetts Cross.
Gordon’s Three Card Brag makes appeal
Trainer Gordon Elliott loves to target this contest, having won it three times, and he is likely to have a lot of ammunition for this year’s renewal given the number of entries. The one who I am interested in from his team is Three Card Brag, who could significantly improve his form over this distance and have a decent chance if he’s allowed to take his chance.
Following a win in his only bumper start, the seven-year-old won two of his six starts over hurdles and ran a very solid race to finish fifth of 20 in last season’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle. He could only finish sixth at Punchestown next time, but has shaped well to finish second in both his chase starts despite returning a beaten favourite in each of those.
Even though he’s been able to dictate the pace in each contest, I think he has been caught out by two horses who have more of a finishing kick over the shorter distances.
The 3m6f trip of the National Hunt Chase would allow him to get deep into his stamina when it matters most in a battle, and let's not forget his neck second to Grade 1 winner Inthepocket over an inadequate distance over hurdles reads well.
Brave Kingdom is an interesting outsider for Nicholls
Paul Nicholls came close to winning this race three years ago with the injury-plagued but highly talented Next Destination, who finished second, and he could deploy the lightly raced Brave Kingdom, an exciting eight-year-old who has won five of his six starts under rules.
He is another who could be suited to the step-up in distance and is currently unbeaten in two starts over fences. It wasn’t a strong race that he won at Newbury last time out, but again, he jumped extremely well and found loads under pressure to see off his rivals by nearly two lengths.
There’s no doubt he would need to take a significant step forward in this much tougher contest, but he looks like an out-and-out stayer, and his impeccable jumping would really suit this course. He also has the option of the Brown Advisory over three miles, in which he also holds an entry at this stage.
However, with Stay Away Fay looking like the yard’s main contender in that aforementioned race, it would be a logical choice to see him in this contest. It is astonishing to see him available at 25/1 on Sky Bet, because it’s transparent to see that Paul Nicholls thinks a lot of him given these couple of entries so soon in his career.
National Hunt Chase Odds
| Runner | Best Odds | Worst Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Embassy Gardens | 10/3 | 7/4 |
| Corbetts Cross | 9/2 | 3/1 |
| Flooring Porter | 15/2 | 6/1 |
| Nick Rockett | 8/1 | 5/1 |
| Salvador Ziggy | 10/1 | 8/1 |
National Hunt Chase Ante-Post Tips
Grade 1 runner-up Corbetts Cross has been popular over the past week and is likely to be partnered by Derek O’Connor. However, I’m not sure he is crying out for this sort of distance, with the same applied to the favourite Embassy Gardens.
Instead, I would highly recommend backing Willie Mullins' Grangeclare West at 12/1, with the NRNB applied. He beat the former very easily last time out, and while the Brown Advisory seems to be his main target according to the betting, Willie Mullins could allow him to take up this option instead.
If he does confirm him for this race, then he will definitely be near favouritism. Do not back him without NRNB, though, because money will be lost if he goes the other route.
Gordon Elliott has a good record in the race, and I cannot help but feel as though THREE CARD BRAG (best price 10/1) has an excellent chance in a race that should be right up his alley.
He has often shaped like a horse who would appreciate this sort of distance and doesn’t have much to find, with the likes of Corbett Cross having been narrowly denied by that horse when last spotted.
He has finished second in both chase outings and should have plenty more to come. His fifth in last season’s Albert Bartlett when Corbetts Cross ran out reads well. I think he is overpriced and should be backed accordingly at double-figure odds.
Finally, the Paul Nicholls-trained BRAVE KINGDOM (best price 25/1) could be the surprise package. He is unbeaten in two starts over fences and has won five of his six starts to date. The fact he is doubly-entered at the Cheltenham Festival after just two starts in this sphere makes him an appealing proposition.
He is a superb jumper who stays well and has a lot more improvement to come. I presume connections will favour this marathon event rather than the Brown Advisory if he does run at Cheltenham next month, and so far I have been impressed with his two chase wins. He looks tailor-made for this race and is advised as an each-way investment with the NRNB attached.
