Cheltenham Festival 2024 Tips: This Week's Road to Cheltenham Preview

Only one more time will can there be a paragraph on “what’s to come this week” before the answer is Cheltenham. This is the final stretch and it’s starting to heat up. This week sees the five day declarations released with Thursday 7th March giving the five day decs for Tuesday, Friday 8th March for Wednesday and then so on and so on.

More importantly than any five day declarations, however, will be Monday’s news regarding Constitution Hill. Nicky Henderson’s stable star was found to have mucus in his throat after a below par racecourse gallop at Kempton. He is now as big as 3.5 on the exchanges with many doubtful that he will run in the Champion Hurdle.

Although he was reported to be in much better health the following morning, Monday’s blood test will be crucial news with the horse backed in more than 10% of ante post accumulators.

Before the Cheltenham Festival takes centre stage Sandown holds its Imperial Cup day card on Saturday. Worth just shy of £100,000, the race is a premier handicap in its own right and has seen all of the last 10 favourites beaten.

On the same card is the EBF Novice Handicap Hurdle Final. Last year’s winner Crambo is rated 34lb higher and is prominent in the betting for the Stayers’ Hurdle whilst 4th placed Etalon, 5th placed Cuthbert Dibble and 6th placed Crebilly have all cast the race in a favourable light. Both Cuthbert Dibble (Pertemps) and Crebilly (Plate) have live chances at the Festival too.

Cheltenham Festival 2024 Tips

Being the final week I have decided to focus on the blue riband event for jump racing, the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Galopin Des Champs currently heads the market at a best priced 11/10 on Betfred having been mightily impressive when winning the race last year by seven lengths.

This season he’s overcome a turnover in the John Durkan with an eye watering 23 length win in the Savills over Christmas before finally getting revenge on rival Fastorslow in the Irish Gold Cup last time out. He had to make all that day in a four runner race and his jumping was subsequently a tad sloppy but he should be far happier taking a lead next week. 

Upon inspection into last year’s race, it really does seem that everything went to plan for the son of Timos. 2nd placed Bravemansgame, 3rd placed Conflated and 5th placed Protektorat are all doubtful stayers over the extended 3 and a quarter miles and the strong pace set by Ahoy Senor further exposed this.

On top of this, A Plus Tard failed to bounce back, Ahoy Senor himself fell whilst the ground went against King George hero Hewick. I don’t think that performance earns him legendary status and I’m more than happy to watch him win at 11/10.

This year looks a strong renewal too, albeit one with a smaller field. Monkfish is set to make his return over fences, Hewick comes here with a better preparation, whilst L’Homme Presse, Gerri Colombe, Shishkin and Fastorslow all seem upgrades on the aforementioned Ryanair horses, many of whom are dropping into Thursday’s race. Of the above, it is Shishkin that takes my fancy the most.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tips

I have long thought Shishkin to be a horse who is wrongfully biased against. Having won the Supreme and Arkle, he was pulled up when odds on for the 2022 Champion Chase, a race which has become a graveyard for favourites. He was out until December when he returned for that year’s Tingle Creek, again over 2 miles, where he was beaten 15 lengths into 3rd by Edwardstone.

A following wind surgery suggested that an underlying issue, but it may have simply been an indicator that he was not a genuine 2 miler with both his Supreme and Arkle wins featuring moments off the bridle. The wind surgery and the step up in trip seemed to do the trick and he coasted home in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase to beat Pic D’Orhy by 16 lengths.

Paul Nicholls’ horse is a specialist over that course and distance, as proved by his two wins at Ascot this year, and he also boosted the form when willing the Grade 1 Melling Chase at Aintree. Less than a month later, Shishkin went off evens for the Ryanair but was beaten into 2nd by Envoi Allen.

The Ryanair is often very slowly run, especially without trailblazer Allaho, and a bad mistake three out set the son of Sholokhov on the back foot. He closed rapidly up the run-in but just couldn’t bridge the gap with Envoi Allen, who was winning at his third Cheltenham Festival. Shishkin next went to the Aintree Bowl where he beat course specialist Ahoy Senor by over a length.

Over the extended 3 mile 1f trip, he showed a wealth of stamina to close on Lucinda Russell’s horse up the run in, who was given an enterprising ride from the run on the sharp Mildmay track. Having been beaten at two Festivals at odds on and evens, Shishkin’s refusal to race on debut only fuelled the fire against him, something which his stumble after the last fence at Kempton only exacerbated.

However, on the nicer ground at Kempton he travelled very kindly under a more prominent ride and looked to have the race in the bag to me. I still think he is unexposed at the trip but his King George run does exemplify his speed as well. I do think nicer ground is beneficial to him with both him Queen Mother and Ryanair defeats on soft.

The way he travelled on good ground at Kempton, as well as on good to soft ground in last year’s Ascot Chase indicate that a Gold Cup run on Spring ground could be the making of him. Available to back at 7/1, he is a worthy play against the favourite.

This week’s Cheltenham Ante-Post Tips

This is the 10th of 10 Road to Cheltenham round-ups featuring ante-post tips every week!

See below for Jamie Radford’s ante-post tips in the Road to Cheltenham 2024 series, as well as Cheltenham tips from Architect for nine races so far.

Shishkin @ 7/1 (1pt Win) – Cheltenham Gold Cup