Architect Tips picks his winner of the Derby at Epsom.
Epsom Derby
Architect Tips has picked his winner and best value bet for Saturday’s Classic at Epsom, the most prestigious race of the Flat season.
16 horses have been declared for the Epsom Derby, headed by race favourite City Of Troy - a representative of the race's most successful trainer Aidan O'Brien (nine wins).
Here's my runner-by-runner guide for the race and betting tips.
Epsom Derby Runners Guide
City Of Troy
Has been talked up as a potential superstar, but after being sent off as the odds-on favourite for the 2,000 Guineas, he was a spent force at the halfway stage and only beat two rivals in finishing ninth. His bubble might have burst, but not all hope is lost.
More than likely, that run was too bad to be true rather than failing to train on, and last season he was sublime. Unbeaten in three starts as a juvenile, which culminated with a victory in the Dewhurst Stakes, Ballydoyle’s main hopeful has somehow worked his way back to the top of the market.
The vibes emerging from the stable have been positive, with his connections saying they “don’t think they have ever sent a horse to the Derby with as much ability as him.” If that’s the case and you’re happy to draw a line through his latest disappointment, then he’s undeniably a worthy favourite.
Can he do what stablemate Auguste Rodin did last year, and that’s win the Derby following a poor run in the 2,000 Guineas? It’s hard to see it happening twice, but given all the hype behind him and his top-class two-year-old form, he may well end up blowing his rivals apart.
Ambiente Friendly
An improving son of Gleneagles, who proved too keen on his comeback run at Newmarket over nine furlongs, but improved enormously on that reappearance run with a decisive success in the Lingfield Derby Trial.
That race has been a guide for the Derby, with the recent winners Anthony Van Dyck and Adayar following up here. This will be another step up in class for him, but he’s going the right way and might not have finished improving yet.
That being said, I have an inclination that he might find a few too good who are also open to a lot more improvement. He will have his supporters, but I’m not one of them. I’m happy to look elsewhere.
Los Angeles
Son of Derby winner Camelot and brings an unbeaten record of three wins from three starts into the race. Not only that, but he’s only one of two entries who has yet to taste defeat.
He was rather workmanlike in winning his Leopardstown trial on his seasonal return, but he wasn’t slowing down at the finish, and he will surely come on plenty.
He’s a Group 1 winner, courtesy of his victory in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud, and his breeding suggests he will be even better over these extra couple of furlongs.
City Of Troy might be the yard’s number one, but he carries an attractive profile, and with his proven capabilities at the top-tier, he could be a solid each-way shout.
Ancient Wisdom
High-class two-year-old who won four of his five starts, including the Group 1 Futurity Stakes at Doncaster. He proved no match for Economics on his return in the Dante when finishing a six-length second, but clearly needed the outing, and he might be suited to the step up in distance.
The 16-day turnaround would be a concern, but Charlie Appleby wouldn’t be taking any risks without good reason. Charlie and Godolphin have won two of the last six renewals with Masar in 2018 and Adayar in 2021, and this talented participant could go well at a big price. Each-way player.
Dancing Gemini
Won two of his five starts and produced a career-best performance when finishing a half-length second in the French 2,000 Guineas last time out.
He could appreciate the step-up in trip, but he seemingly has plenty of speed, and this track will test any concerns in that regard.
While I respect that he’s on the improve, he does have something to find with Ancient Wisdom on their clash in the Futurity at Doncaster when only fifth behind Godolphin’s charge.
Roger Teal has done well in a Classic before, though, so his Group 1 runner-up could sneak into the frame if his stamina holds out.
Macduff
Will carry the same silks for connections who had the classy Westover finish third in this race two years ago. Ralph Beckett’s charge is following a similar path, having contested Sandown’s trial when finishing second, albeit proving no match for runaway winner Arabian Crown.
The bare form of that effort does leave him with a bit to find with the market principles, but he’s another who could come into his own over this longer trip. I do like his profile despite being found out at a lower level since scoring on debut, and he may reward his each-way supporters with a good showing.
Bellum Justum
This son of Derby winner Sea The Stars has taken his form to a new level the last two times, winning at Newmarket before taking the Listed Blue Riband Trial here over a mile and two furlongs.
Even with his progressive profile and more to offer, he doesn’t appeal as a Derby winner, and more than likely, his winning run will come to an end. A place might be the best he can hope for here.
Deira Mile
Made the frame in his first three starts prior to outrunning his odds when fourth to Ancient Wisdom in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes. He then comfortably landed a novice over a mile and a quarter at Windsor on his first start for Owen Burrows.
He will find this more challenging, but his owner has twice had two horses finish second in this race at double-figure odds and could go well with this longer trip likely to suit based on his pedigree. He is worth a second look.
Voyage
Looked a smart prospect when winning novice at Newbury on debut, but that form has taken a few knocks, and this is a major step up in grade for a horse with little experience. He might be one for the handicap route at a later date.
Dallas Star
Opened his account at the fourth time of asking when formerly trained by Dominic Ffrench Davis at Bath before finishing third to Ancient Wisdom at Newmarket.
This Colt then upped his game when returning as a three-length winner of the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes on stable debut for Andrew Murray and could go well at a price.
Euphoric
It’s remarkable to think that this horse, which cost a staggering £1.9 million, is likely to be used as a pacemaker. However, that doesn’t mean he can’t run well, and as we have often seen in this race over the years, front-runners tend to overperform.
He could be another to do just that, who has raced three times and was only beaten a length by Los Angeles last time out. This longer trip could bring about improvement, and he could be an outsider to consider, with plenty more to come.
God’s Window
Twice a winner and shaped nicely behind Ancient Wisdom in the Futurity Stakes at Doncaster when finishing third. He reappeared with a last-place finish of four in the Dee Stakes and fared no better than fifth in the Dante Stakes. It is unlikely we will see him troubling the main players.
Tabletalk
A winner at Chelmsford earlier this month, The Tom Clover-trained Tabletalk was supplemented at a cost of £75,000. James Doyle has been booked to ride for the 100/1 chance.
Kamboo
Not seen this year and has only run twice, but he won over a mile at Kempton in December, and it will be interesting to see him in this race despite his lack of experience. That being said, does he appear to be a Derby candidate? Probably not!
Sayedaty Sadaty
Another with plenty of experience and is generally consistent, but lacks the quality of most of these, and he could only finish third in a much weaker race on his only previous visit here.
Mr Hampstead
Remains a maiden after three starts and shouldn’t be anywhere near the main contenders based on his form to date. He is probably a handicapper at best and can easily be overlooked.
Epsom Derby Tips & Predictions
This is an intriguing renewal, especially with the race mostly revolving around the market leader, CITY OF TROY (tipped at 9/4).
I am happy to draw a line through his below-par performance in the 2000 Guineas, and if the vibes since his flop do fruition, the remainder could be playing for minor honours.
It is always a risk to tip a horse at such skinny odds in a race of this magnitude, but I’m putting my trust in Aidan O’Brien to have him ready for the big day. He was the first to admit that he didn’t have him quite right at Newmarket, but this is his big chance at redemption, and he remains clear of these based on ratings.
Horses that are rated 120+ going into the Derby have a good record, and there’s every chance this horse could rate higher. If he had won last time out, there’s no doubt he would be a short-priced favourite here, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt, and hopefully he can showcase his true class in this contest.
LOS ANGELES (tipped at 5/1) is the alternative option. He is unbeaten in three starts, and although he only won by a length on his return in a Group 3 race, I thought that was a solid performance for a horse who will strip fitter.
This son of Camelot did very well to take the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his second career start, and this extra yardage should be right up his street given how strongly he has finished off his races. If the favourite fluffs his lines, I think he’ll be the one to capitalise.
Others to make the shortlist include Ralph Beckett’s Macduff and one of Aidan O’Brien’s outsiders, EUPHORIC (tipped at 40/1), who was only a length behind Los Angeles last time out when finishing second and might be used for pacemaker duties.
As we have seen over the years, Ballydoyle’s pacemakers for the Derby have quite often exceeded market expectations, and this son of Frankel has a solid profile. If he’s allowed to dictate matters before quickening up the pace as they turn into the home straight, he could be hard to keep out of the frame.
He will be down the pecking order on jockey bookings and has plenty to find ratings with stablemate City Of Troy, but he has more to offer, and I cannot see him disgracing himself here.
Given he’s such a big price, having done little wrong, he does make some each-way appeal. If you take out the favourite, this is an open renewal.
