Irish Derby

Aidan O’Brien is set to launch a strong group of participants at Sunday’s feature, spearheaded by Los Angeles, who finished an excellent third in the English equivalent at Epsom at the start of this month. 

Ambiente Friendly, who was a place in front of Aidan O’Brien’s main contender when the pair clashed last time out, will renew rivalry with his old foe. The lightly-raced Matsuri also features in the final field for Roger Varian. 

Let’s take a closer look at this year’s runners for the Group 1 contest before concluding with my predictions and tips in the hope of identifying the winner! Thanks for reading in advance. 

Irish Derby Runners Guide

Ambiente Friendly 

  • Trainer: James Fanshawe 
  • Jockey: Rab Havlin
  • Form: 13412
  • Odds: 11/8

 

Easy three-and-a-half-length winner on debut at Leicester prior to running well in Listed and Group 3 contests at Newmarket. He took a major step forward from his return fourth when he unequivocally crushed subsequent Queen’s Vase winner Illinois and bar by more than four lengths in the Lingfield Derby Trial. 

This son of Gleneagles then elevated his form to a whole new level, proving his previous win to be no fluke when only finding City Of Troy too good in the closing stages of Epsom’s equivalent. He had Los Angeles more than three lengths behind him that day, and given that he was supplemented for €100,000 earlier this week, he will be extremely hard to beat. 

Euphoric

  • Trainer: Aidan O’Brien 
  • Jockey: Declan McDonogh
  • Form: 1329
  • Odds: 33/1

 

Winner on debut at Navan and improved enormously from his third at Cork to finish only a length behind Los Angeles when a very solid second in Leopardstown’s Derby Trial. 

This son of Frankel attempted to go pillar-to-post in the Epsom Derby but weakened to finish ninth. Appeared to be used as a pacemaker in that race, though, and looks likely to be used for the same duties here.

Grosvenor Square

  • Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
  • Jockey: Wayne Lordan 
  • Form: 1313
  • Odds: 14/1

 

Progressed nicely as a juvenile, winning two of his three starts, including a smooth Group 3 victory at Leopardstown on heavy ground when beating subsequent Golden Gates runner-up Cambridge. 

Looked badly in need of his return in the Chester Vase when a distant third but better was clearly anticipated that day given Ryan Moore had chosen him over stablemate Agenda, who finished second to the ill-fated Hidden Law. 

Could have plenty more to offer over these middle trip pattern-class races but was pulled out of the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot when the ground was riding quick and conditions appear likely to be no different here.  

Keeper’s Heart 

  • Trainer: Ger Lyons
  • Jockey: Colin Keane 
  • Form: 2143
  • Odds: 66/1

 

The outsider of the field but wasn’t far behind Los Angeles when fourth to Los Angeles in the Derby Trial Stakes. 

That said, his subsequent third to Portland hasn’t worked out well, with the winner comfortably held in the Hampton Court at Royal Ascot. 

He will need to up his game to figure in this company, though. Others are preferred.

Los Angeles 

  • Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
  • Jockey: Ryan Moore 
  • Form: 1113
  • Odds: 15/8

 

Did well to make a winning debut at Tipperary, scoring by more than two lengths, before handling the step up in grade on soft ground with aplomb when winning the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his second outing. 

Following a successful return in a Group 3 race on his return at Leopardstown, this son of Camelot produced a career-best performance to finish third in the Epsom Derby, faring best of those that were up with pace. 

The evidence points to him being more of a plodder than a horse with a turn of foot, so if this does turn tactical, I’m not sure he will have the speed to see off Ambiente Friendly and may again have to settle for minor honours. 

Matsuri

  • Trainer: Roger Varian
  • Jockey: James Doyle 
  • Form: 211
  • Odds: 7/1

 

Interesting participant. This son of Sea The Stars should be arriving here with three wins from three starts, having been an unlucky second on his debut at Salisbury. 

Eight-length winner in his latest return to action at Leicester saw him win by eight lengths, relishing the step up in trip. Potentially very smart, but this is a huge step up in class. 

Sunway 

  • Trainer: David Menuisier
  • Jockey: Oisin Murphy 
  • Form: 21527
  • Odds: 20/1

 

Concluded his two-year-old season with Group 1 success in the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud but not been in the same form in three subsequent starts. 

Not beaten far when midfield in the Prix Du Jockey Club last time out, beaten just over four lengths, and could find improvement now stepping up in distance. Each-way possibilities. 

The Euphrates 

  • Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
  • Jockey: Dylan McMonagle
  • Form: 31245
  • Odds: 50/1

 

Beaten nearly 10 lengths when fifth in the King Edward VII Stakes and was comfortably beaten by Ambiente Friendly at Lingfield. 

Given that his limitations have been exposed the last two times, he is hard to recommend. Best look elsewhere.  

Irish Derby 2024 Tips & Predictions 

AMBIENTE FRIENDLY (best price 11/10) has taken his form to a whole new level this season, beating subsequent Queens Vase winner Illinois with a lot to spell before running a blinder to finish second in the Epsom Derby. 

Despite proving no match for City Of Troy, James Fanshawe’s charge had the rest of the field cooked, including Los Angeles. I liked the way he travelled into the race and kept on well in the closing stages. 

Being the top-rated in the line-up, with conditions to suit and Rab Havlin coming over to Ireland to ride him, this son of Gleneagles can comfortably uphold the latest form with Los Angeles by going a place better.

Ambiente Friendly, 1.5pts WIN, 11/8

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