Joe Norris from GYTO Tuesday Stat Bet and Lucky 15 tips for today’s horse racing.
18:00 Newcastle
There have been bits and pieces of promise so far from the well bred SARMIENTO POWER and it would be no surprise to see him take a big step forward now handicapping. He goes up markedly in trip now tackling a mile and a quarter for the first time and an opening mark of just 64 will surely prove to be lenient? He has been gelded since we last saw him too which would have to be another positive.
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When you couple that with the stats his case becomes even more compelling as Roger Varian has done well with handicap debutants this year saddling 5 winners and 16 placed efforts from 50 runners. That is a 32% strike rate for a place so the 10/11 makes plenty of appeal as well as the win at 11/4.
Sarmiento Power (1pt WIN @ 11/4)
Sarmiento Power (2pt PLACE @ 10/11 2 places)
LATEST P&L FOR STAT BET +16.32 point profit
Lucky 15 Tips Today
Today’s Lucky 15 from Joe Norris at GYTO pays 55/1 at the time of posting – a £1 Lucky 15 would return £220 from a £15 outlay.
- Liricist – Leicester 2.40
- Brazilian Rose - Catterick 3.52
- Philanthropist - Newcastle 5.23
- Kalamunda - Lingfield 5.35
Leicester 2.40 Liricist (7/2)
The form was let down somewhat with Inshad running no sort of race yesterday but even still I think LIRICIST is the one to beat here. He impressed winning convincingly in the end at Chepstow on handicap debut and turned out quickly under a penalty could easily improve again and follow up against these. He showed a good attitude last time and at this lowly level that can count for plenty.
Catterick 3.52 Brazilian Rose (11/8)
The money was down for BRAZILIAN ROSE on debut and this filly by Calyx made no mistake just holding on in the closing stages. The runner-up Delicacy has won in good style since and the third Whoop Whoop has also gone in so it has been strongly franked. Obviously it won’t be easy carrying a penalty but with the form having worked out so well and this drop back to 6f in soft ground likely to suit I can see her following up.
Newcastle 5.23 Philanthropist (6/5)
This looks a great chance for PHILANTHROPIST to open his account. He clearly needed the run on debut when down the field at a big price but he stepped forward to miss just a neck last time and sets the standard on that. He got a bit squeezed for room that day too before staying on well so I expect him to come on again from that and that might be enough to win this. James Fanshawe is in particularly good form too which is another positive.
Lingfield 5.35 Kalamunda (11/8)
There was lots to like about the way KALAMUNDA won at Southwell last time. He cut through the field and despite actually being denied a run showed a good attitude to keep coming and then was going away at the finish. I expect him to stay ahead of the handicapper under a penalty and he could easily remain unbeaten on the AW. Both Darvel and Ring Of Light are likely to push forward so it could pan out perfectly.
