Joe Norris from GYTO Friday Stat Bet and Lucky 15 tips for today’s horse racing.
18:30 Wolverhampton
Havana Grey colt EL BUFALO was a big eye-catcher finishing second on debut and then he improved to win over C&D as a 2yo. He was pitched into a really tough race on return back in April and understandably struggled to get competitive. Given time since and having undergone wind surgery ahead of his handicap debut it would be no surprise to see him back to his best. He drops back down to the minimum trip which he is 2-2 over and a mark of 80 likely underestimates him.
BetMGM UK
Trainer Dylan Cunha has done well with handicap debutants this year too saddling 3 winners and 3 placed efforts from just 12 runners. I will be backing him to win at 10/3 but the 4/5 to place as well looks an outstanding bet.
El Bufalo (2pt PLACE @ 4/5 3 places)
LATEST P&L FOR STAT BET +30.83 point profit
Lucky 15 Tips Today
Today’s Lucky 15 from Joe Norris at GYTO pays 160/1 at the time of posting – a £1 Lucky 15 would return £480 from a £15 outlay.
- Military Academy – Newmarket 4.45
- Cavern Club - Worcester 4.55
- Flight Radar - Haydock 5.40
- Bernalda - Wolverhampton 7.30
Newmarket 4.45 Military Academy (13/8)
Fastnet Rock colt MILITARY ACADEMY impressed winning on debut at Hamilton and given the runner-up The Reverend absolutely hosed in next time out perhaps it was no surprise to see him make it a perfect 2-2 at Salisbury. The manner of that victory was impressive though making all and galloping rivals into the ground. He steps up into Listed company now but can improve again up to a mile and a half and looks worth keeping on side especially with the ground testing.
Worcester 4.55 Cavern Club (2/1)
The way CAVERN CLUB won on hurdles debut at Cartmel was really impressive and despite getting beat at Stratford he is still armed with a fair bit of potential over hurdles. He goes handicapping now and could improve again so is a good bet to beat these. Dog Fox spurned a good opportunity here last time so has a bit to prove as well but does still look the danger. Dunbulcan Bay is another one to note now handicapping so keep an eye on him too.
Haydock 5.40 Flight Radar (3/1)
I know FLIGHT RADAR was obviously expected to win as he did at Catterick but now handicapping he could easily improve again and complete the hat-trick. He is clearly quite a promising horse and an opening mark of just 82 likely underestimates him. Lord Bertie enjoys himself when the mud is flying and got his head back in front at Ascot last time so could be the danger if backing that up. Myal has been progressive and is another one to note as he is also on a hat-trick.
Wolverhampton 7.30 Bernalda (4/1)
I’m pleasantly surprised BERNALDA is being a bit overlooked in the betting. This Frankel filly has been getting better with each start and was only denied half a length on handicap debut at Newmarket last month. She stretches out to a mile plus now and switched to the AW could see her progress again and I think she has a big chance of beating these. Atlantis Blue failed to land the hat-trick but still has a big shout in this and Rosenzoo bumped into a nice one last time and is also respected.
