Joe Norris from GYTO Friday Stat Bet and Lucky 15 tips for today’s horse racing.
17:30 Newcastle
After showing promise on her first 3 starts ALMASI may well be up to making a winning start for this yard. She goes handicapping off a mark of just 63 and that could easily prove lenient. She drops back to the minimum trip which I can see suiting given the speed she showed at Wolverhampton last month. She won’t lack for fitness and if she gets a nice passage in behind Bella Love I think she could be in the box seat to pounce.
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Trainer Mick Easterby has done well with handicap debutants this year saddling 2 winners and 4 placed efforts from just 23 runners which has produced profit. I can see the 9/1 coming under pressure come post time.
Almasi (1pt EW @ 9/1)
Almasi (1pt 3 places @ 13/8)
LATEST P&L FOR STAT BET +23.88 point profit
Lucky 15 Tips Today
Today’s Lucky 15 from Joe Norris at GYTO pays 400/1 at the time of posting – a £1 Lucky 15 would return £1,020 from a £15 outlay.
- Nebrook Dream – Haydock 2.55
- The Wrekin - Uttoxeter 3.20
- Vivienda - Dundalk 7.45
- Barleybrown - Newcastle 8.00
Haydock 2.55 Nebrook Dream (3/1)
The only last time out winner in the field NEBROOK DREAM looks the way to go in this nursery. This colt by Mayson loved the ground en route to making a winning handicap debut at Leicester when last seen and turned out quickly under a 6lb penalty he should be hard to beat. The runner-up Emporess has gone down just a length since so the form has been boosted too. Fortaleza was denied justa neck at Redcar and looks the danger with more to come.
Uttoxeter 3.20 The Wrekin (6/1)
I’m surprised THE WREKIN is quite a big price here as he was in great form when last seen winning at Market Rasen. I know we haven’t seen him for well over a year but he remains lightly raced over fences so could easily take another step forward. Vision De Maine has only had 4 starts under Rules and now sent over fences on handicap debut could be the danger. Special Acceptance is another one who could get competitive.
Dundalk 7.45 Vivienda (15/8)
Good looking filly VIVIENDA looks the one to beat here. She showed a gutsy attitude to win at Gowran last month and then did little wrong in defeat when third at Fairyhouse last month. This is easier back on the AW and with her yard in good form she should prove hard to beat. Just For One Day impressed winning at the Curragh last month and now handicapping could improve and give the selection most to think about. Sumptuary Law also has a squeak.
Newcastle 8.00 Barleybrown (4/1)
I know BARLEYBROWN isn’t the most straightforward but when he is on a going day he is pretty useful at this level as he showed scoring over C&D last month. He is 5lb higher but his record at this venue is decent and if the race pans out favourably again he must have a big shout. Triple Force looked a bit unlucky when third over track and trip last time and if getting a better run through here could threaten. Mr Jetman could also be in the mix on his best form.
OVERALL PROFIT AND LOSS FOR GYTO = -60.37 POINT LOSS
