Joe Norris from GYTO Thursday Stat Bet and Lucky 15 tips for today’s horse racing.
18:30 Chelmsford
Make no mistake this is a fiercely competitive nursery but BALLARAT BERTIE definitely catches the eye. This Oasis Dream colt has always looked one for handicaps. Only need to look at the odds he has gone off so far 40/1, 150/1 and 125/1 to know that. He has had a wind op since last seen and given plenty of time to mature could prove a completely different proposition now off a basement mark.
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Trainer Richard Hughes has done well with handicap debutants this year saddling 7 winners and 12 placed efforts from just 26 runners. That makes the 5/1 very appealing and I have also covered the 5/4 to hit the frame as he had a near 50% strike rate this year on his handicap debutants running a place.
Ballarat Bertie (1pt EW @ 5/1)
Ballarat Bertie (1pt 3 places @ 5/4)
LATEST P&L FOR STAT BET +29.26 point profit
Lucky 15 Tips Today
Today’s Lucky 15 from Joe Norris at GYTO pays 380/1 at the time of posting – a £1 Lucky 15 would return £970 from a £15 outlay.
- Backby Jet – Newcastle 2.45
- Tap Dancer - Bath 2.58
- Caramay - Southwell 4.10
- Tribal Wisdom - Chelmsford 8.30
Newcastle 2.45 Backbyjet (5/1)
With 3 wins from his last 4 starts over fences BACKBYJET arrives here at the top of his game. He defied a small layoff to win at Hexham earlier this month and a 4lb rise shouldn’t be enough to stop him following up despite this being a tougher race. Boomslang impressed winning on chase debut at Downpatrick and looks the danger now handicapping.
Bath 2.58 Tap Dancer (2/1)
The money is coming for TAP DANCER and it is easy to see why. This filly impressed opening her account readily over a mile and a quarter at this track last time and with more to come now pitched into a nursery I think she can follow up. Her opening mark doesn’t look too tough and we know she is versatile regarding the ground. Glenridding is in form too and is the danger.
Southwell 4.10 Caramay (5/1)
It was good to see CARAMAY back to winning ways at Wolverhampton last month and then she showed a good attitude to follow up over C&D last time. She is up another 3lb but is clearly thriving right now so the hat-trick may well be on the cards. Achillea got her head back in front at Chelmsford last time so could be the danger. Aim For The Moon is another one expected to get competitive.
Chelmsford 8.30 Tribal Wisdom (5/2)
No surprise to see TRIBAL WISDOM favourite for this following that win at Wolverhampton last time. He was given a patient ride but came through strongly and got on top at the finish. He is 4lb higher but if this pans out favourably again I expect him to follow up. Imitate is by Frankel and she was only beaten narrowly at Wolverhampton so looks the one to give the fav most to think about.
