Steve Ryder picks his winner from the 10 declared runners for the 1000 Guineas.
1000 Guineas 2025
In a field of 10 horses confirmed for the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, Godolphin’s Desert Flower and Aidan O’Brien’s three-time Group 1 victor Lake Victoria are set to battle it out.
Desert Flower, trained by Charlie Appleby, is the odds-on favourite to secure Appleby’s maiden triumph in this prestigious race at the Betfred Guineas Festival.
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1000 Guineas Runner-By-Runner Guide
Desert Flower (William Buick)
Unbeaten in four starts as a two-year-old, with three wins at Newmarket, including one on the Rowley Mile. She claimed the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster, defeating January by 1½ lengths, and then dominated the same rival by 5½ lengths in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile over this course and distance. Her recent gallop at the Craven meeting left her team confident, positioning her as the horse to beat.
Lake Victoria (Ryan Moore)
Undefeated in five outings last season, boasting three Group 1 successes. She bested Red Letter in a Curragh maiden before winning the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes over 7f at Newmarket’s July course.
Showing adaptability, she secured Group 1 victories over 6f, 7f, and a mile, including the Cheveley Park Stakes at this venue. Despite a tough start in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, she surged to a 1½-length win over a mile.
Red Letter (Colin Keane)
Pipped by a head by Lake Victoria on her Curragh debut, she then won her next race by 4¼ lengths. In the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, she faced traffic problems, finishing fourth, 1½ lengths behind Lake Victoria. All her runs have been over 7f at the Curragh on good ground, prompting slight concerns about her suitability for Newmarket.
Chantilly Lace (Rossa Ryan)
Won her only start as a juvenile, a novice race on heavy ground at Salisbury in October, beating an 88-rated rival by 1½ lengths. Quicker ground may test this Lope De Vega filly.
Flight (Oisin Murphy)
Placed in all five races last season, including second to Desert Flower at Newmarket’s July course and on debut at Newbury. She won a Sandown maiden but trailed Desert Flower and Merrily in subsequent group races.
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Remaat (Jason Watson)
Improved with every outing, culminating in a 4½-length victory at Newmarket’s July course. She took third in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes on her reappearance, earning a 101 rating.
Simmering (Dylan Browne McMonagle)
Third on debut at York, she was then narrowly beaten by Fairy Godmother in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. She won the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes and a Group 2 in France over 7f on soft ground. Beaten 1¼ lengths by Lake Victoria in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, her recent seventh in the Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury raises questions.
Elwateen (Jim Crowley)
A popular winner on debut for Saeed Bin Suroor at Kempton in August, she can shine now entered for just her second start. Her trainer won this race in 2023 with Mawj.
Hey Boo (George Bass)
Victorious in her first two all-weather starts at Chelmsford this year, she defied 40/1 odds to finish second in the Group 3 Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury, earning a 101 rating.
Duty First (Hollie Doyle)
Beaten by Desert Flower on debut at Newmarket’s July course, she won a novice race at Ayr in August. After placing in group races, she delivered a career-best 33/1 win in the Group 3 Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury, earning a 109 rating that supports her case.
1000 Guineas Betting Trends & Winners
No favourite has won since Minding in 2016, with only one winner since starting shorter than 9/1. The biggest upset came in 2018 with 66/1 Billesdon Brook, while 2024’s winner, Elmalka, returned at 28/1.
- 17 of the last 23 winners had a prior group race victory.
- 16 of the last 23 had two or three career wins.
- 15 of the last 23 had not won over a mile.
- 13 of the last 23 won their latest race.
- 13 of the last 23 had raced at Newmarket.
- 10 of the last 23 ran their last race at Newmarket.
1000 Guineas Tips
There are only three horses with a greater than 10% share of the bets for the 1000 Guineas through oddschecker since the start of this week.
13% for Elwateen, 20% for Lake Victoria and a highest 27% for DESERT FLOWER, who remains the standout choice for Steve Ryder (advised at 6/5).
The Godolphin filly won her first two races at Newmarket’s July course and delivered a commanding performance in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile over this track and trip last season.
Appleby’s decision to bring her back for a gallop at the Craven meeting showcased her comfort with Newmarket’s unique dip, where she powered away from a stablemate. While she may briefly lose rhythm 3f out, her strong finishing speed should carry her through. Primed for this race all season, she’s well-placed to deliver a first 1000 Guineas win for Appleby and Buick.
