Kentucky Derby 2025

Justify won the Kentucky Derby in 2018 and he was the sixth winning favourite in a row. But since then there hasn’t been a winning favourite in the race since which could be seen as a slight negative for market leader, Journalism.

The draw is particularly important. The last horse to win this race from Stall 1 was 1986 and horses since then coming from Stalls 1,2 and 3 are 1-93. Interestingly that one winner was Mystik Dan last year who came from Stall 3.

Another important callout is that Steve Asmussen hasn’t had the best time in recent years with his previous 13 runners all beaten. He runs both Tiztastic and Publisher.

Bob Baffert is the leading trainer in this race over the last 10 renewals with three wins and he runs two this year in Citizen Bull and Rodriguez.

Kentucky Derby Odds

Kentucky Derby Winner Best Odds Worst Odds
Journalism 11/4 2/1
Sovereignty 13/2 5/1
Sandman 9/1 13/2
Luxor Cafe 10/1 7/1
Burnham Square 12/1 9/1

 

Journalism is the clear bookmakers' favourite to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

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Kentucky Derby Tips

Our selection for the race is SOVEREIGNTY. Seven of the previous 13 winners had started from stall number 13 or higher which is a positive for both Sovereignty and Sandman towards the top of the market.

Another positive for Sovereignty is that the Florida Derby has produced 25 winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1953 and that was a race he was 2nd in on his previous start.