Steve Ryder puts up a 50/1 chance for the 2025 Derby at Epsom.
Epsom Derby
42 entries currently remain as the final runners start to take shape for the 2025 Derby at Epsom before the next scratching stage next week. Aidan O’Brien, who has won the race for the past two season, unsurprisingly has 12 of those.
The shape of the race will no doubt change with various trials coming in recent weeks but it is currently the unbeaten The Lion In Winter who heads the market ahead of 2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court.
Derby Winners, Trends & Stats
The Derby is arguably the most prestigious of the British Classics and is often referred to by flat trainers and jockeys as the race that they most want to win.
There are a variety of ‘trial’ races for the Derby including at Chester, York, Lingfield and Sandown as well as the 2000 Guineas.
Galileo won this race in 2001 and his offspring won a further five renewals with New Approach (2008), Ruler Of The World (2013), Australia (2014), Anthony Van Dyck (2019) and Serpentine (2020).
- 21 of the previous 23 winners had raced no more than five times before
- 19 of the previous 23 winners had previously won a group race
- 19 of the previous 23 winners had finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 15 of the previous 23 winners had run over at least 1m2f before
- Nine of the previous 23 winners were trained by Aidan O’Brien
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Derby Trainers & Jockeys to Watch
Aidan O’Brien is the leading trainer in the Epsom Derby with 10 victories overall. A further seven of those have come since the victory of Camelot in 2012 including the previous two years with Auguste Rodin (2023) and City Of Troy (2024). Charlie Appleby has won it twice in recent years with Masar (2018) and Adayar (2021) but Andrew Balding is yet to win the race despite having 13 runners in it.
Unsurprisingly, given his association with the Aidan O’Brien stable, Ryan Moore is the leading jockey in recent years. He has won the race four times since 2010 including the previous two renewals. William Buick, who will be riding the well fancied Ruling Court, won the race aboard Masar in 2018.
Derby Tips
Aidan O’Brien dominated the trials at Chester and Lingfield and the pecking order will no doubt be determined by how The Lion In Winter runs in the Dante Stakes.
He faces WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE (best priced at 50/1) in that race on Thursday and the two are closely matched on their juvenile form.
The James Owen trained colt finished 2nd in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes last season where subsequent 2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court was behind the pair in third.
Wimbledon Hawkeye stayed on strongly over a mile in both the Craven Stakes and 2000 Guineas on his two runs this season and has handled the downhill part of the track well giving the impression that Epsom should suit him well.
The owners had Ambiente Friendly finish 2nd in the race last season so I have no doubt they will target the race even if he is defeated at York and being out of a Sea The Stars mare, he should stay the 1m4f trip.
He looks an obvious each way alternative at the prices in comparison to both The Lion In Winter and Ruling Court given how closely matched they are on last year’s form.
