Liam Firkin has five selections covering Saturday's racing including the Ayr Gold Cup Festival.
13:15 Ayr
Michael Dods and Secura Group will be hoping to have a successful day at Ayr with the current favourite in the £180,000 Ayr Gold Cup and another who is prominent in the betting for this event. The familiar face of NORTHERN EXPRESS (6/1) is one I’ve been keen to back for his last couple of starts but now lines up in calmer waters than previously seen so far this season and continues to catch my eye with regards to both his performances and his falling handicap mark.
Now 4lbs below his last winning mark and with course form to his name, he could provide the first leg of a “Northern double” for connections with the aforementioned Northern Ticker running later on the card.
On the round course there is a slight advantage to low draws over 7f, but the bias is traditionally stronger over 1m. Almost half of handicaps that consisted of 10+ runners over this 1m trip have been won by one of the lowest three draws (since 2005) and with Northern Express in stall 2 that clearly looks to be to his advantage.
Add to the fact that Paul Mulrennan is back in the saddle taking over from David Egan is a further positive as he clearly has a good relationship and understanding of the horse as from his 7 career wins, Mulrennan has been in the plate on 6 of those occasions.
14:25 Ayr
Unlike the round course, these sprint events have traditionally favoured those who were drawn middle to high and I’ve come down on a selection from last weekend who is in stall 11 and now back on his last winning mark, ROUSING ENCORE (22/1).
He was a good winner at York earlier this season before a 4th of 19 in the Skybet Dash. He was well backed two starts ago and sent off as 7/2 favourite in a 14 runner field and he is possibly not done winning yet, this season.
He ran credibly enough on his most recent start when coming up the rail alone and may well have not benefited from being on that part of the track from which he raced. That finished in a 5th place, in a field of 14 runners, and has been dropped a further 2lbs which now gets him back on a mark that saw him score earlier this season.
He has course and distance form having been a winner at Ayr last season which is a plus, as is the fact that any soft in the going description would be of little concern. He’s performed on surfaces with a bit of juice in the ground previously, including a 3rd of 15 at Doncaster in 2024 when conditions were softer than he’s likely to encounter today.
15:00 Ayr
A Karl Burke trained 2 year-old, who could well improve for softer ground conditions and has been priced up at nice double figure odds makes LAM YAI (18/1) worth a swing for me in this.
We all know that Karl Burke is exceptional with his two year old horses and season in, season out he consistently produces an abundance of winners from his new crop and Lam Yai could come forward for the softer ground conditions as she showed when winning a maiden earlier this season.
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She put together a much better performance when last seen at Ripon where she was widest of all the runners I had to use up a lot of petrol in the early part of that race to get across the field and into a prominent position. She was also taken off a true line in the finishing stages of the race but held onto 3rd place and ahead of 91 rated Amorim.
She has a bit to find on official ratings, but you wouldn’t think it out of the question that Karl Burke can unlock that progression from her a and add to his current 23% strike rate for the last two weeks.
15:35 Ayr
I am hoping that there is one final day in the sun for the now 9 year-old JORDAN ELECTRICS (25/1)
Jim Goldie clearly has the knack of getting the best out of the sprinters but just the one entry in here for the big race of the day and he’s partnered by Lauren Young who is no stranger to success at Ayr already this week having won the opening race of the three day festival and Her 7lbs claim and course knowledge could well be the helping hand that Jordan Electrics will need to roll back the years and put in anything like a winning performance.
He has fed well at this track over the years with course form, over the last 2 years that reads:
- 5th of 25
- 2nd of 7
- 1st of 6
- 3rd of 20
- 16th of 16
- 1st of 7
A return for your money on all but one of his 6 starts at the track.
He’s drawn in stall 10 which should suit given the renewals of this race and where winners tend to come from and if primed for the day and able to put his best foot forward, the one runner might be the only runner, that Jim Goldie needs.
14:40 Newbury
I am going to take a chance that the soft ground conditions and the recent wind operation may well see DUE TO HENRY (20/1) to much better effect.
His trainer won this event last year and saddles a soft ground specialist who is 2 from 2 when running on that going description. The current going is good-to-soft (soft in places) but there is more rain in the air and Due To Henry could have an extremely good chance off his last wining mark and back at a course where he has won previously.
A chancy proposition but one worth taking.
