Liam Firkin assesses the King George VI Chase field after all four of the market favourites ran over the past weekend.
King George VI Chase Odds
Who will be King on Boxing Day?
by Liam Firkin
A weekend of blockbuster action on both sides of the Irish Sea and the King George VI picture is somewhat clearer but perhaps also murkier than it was prior to the weekend. One thing is for sure, and that is that Grey Dawning will be going nowhere near Kempton at Christmas or to any right-handed track based on post-race comments by Dan Skelton following an emotional win for the Alcester yard.
Harry was clearly moved by the victory after what was most probably a tiring 48 hours given that his wife gave birth to their second child so congratulations to them first and foremost. With regards to The King George, Grey Dawning is one that we can rule out for the showpiece at Kempton.
The main players all put down their markers, and we’ll run through them in chronological order and how the market has altered over the course of the weekend.
Firstly, I do have to acknowledge that I have made no secret of my affection for Jango Baie and the regard that I have held him in since he kicked Caldwell Potter out of the way on chase debut at the December Meeting at Cheltenham. He was the first of the main protagonists to run on Saturday, who was a potential King George hope and oh boy, he didn’t disappoint!
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Nico made a brilliant move midway through the 1965 Chase at Ascot to pull him inside and get a better passage through the race and given it was such a tactical affair with Il Est Francais not getting things all his own way up front, Pic D’Orhy having to concede the lead to Gidleigh Park, it was clear that the battle up front was key to how some of the field would perform. Nico was brilliant at not getting involved with those shenanigans and it’s also an asset of Janjo Baie, who can sit behind or go from the front and if asked, he’s happy to be held up and delivered late. He’s uncomplicated and that was key to this muddling affair.
That said, Nicky Henderson had suggested that he would need the run and since he was last seen on a racecourse, he’s had a screw in one of his legs to repair a small fracture but irrespective of the negatives being muted in the build up to the race he still stormed clear of a high-class field. When all was said and done, it’s clear to any set of eyes that it was fantastic preparation for The King George VI at Kempton, and the further he goes, the better he will be, in my opinion.
He was tipped for the 3m chase at Kempton by myself for Oddschecker at 25/1 but the 4/1 available on offer now is a price that I would be going nowhere near. The value has gone and then some. Does he have a chance of being the first home in the Christmas showpiece? Yes. Is he the best chaser in Britain? Yes. Am I excited for Boxing Day? I was….
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And then The Jukebox Man put in one of the most exceptional rounds of jumping at Haydock. I was willing to take him on following his long layoff and thought he may take a big blow at the business end of the race but his class got him through and he was brilliant to watch as he moved elegantly from fence to fence making it look as if he’d never been away from a racecourse yet it was a very impressive reappearance following 331 days off.
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He’s now top price 6/1 and again, there’s no juice in that price at this present time. Especially given that there will be a nervy assessment of how he’s come out of the race given the injury that he suffered following The Kauto Star Novice’s Chase last season at the same venue that appears to be his main target for this season. For connections and Ben Pauling, I hope he comes out of the race perfectly fine and he’ll be a great addition to what looks like an incredibly exciting renewal but is he a bet at 6/1? Absolutely not.
Latest King George VI Chase Betting Odds
| King George VI Chase Winner | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Gaelic Warrior | 7/4 | Ladbrokes |
| Jango Baie | 4/1 | bet365 |
| Fact To File | 6/1 | bet365 |
| The Jukebox Man | 6/1 | bet365 |
| Banbridge | 16/1 | bet365 |
| Grey Dawning | 16/1 | bet365 |
Odds last updated at 10:15, Monday 24th November.
If The Jukebox Man took the wind out of my sails with his exemplary jumping, then by Sunday afternoon, I’d certainly stopped smiling like a cheshire cat when we had yet another fantastic renewal of The John Durkan at Punchestown. A high-class field that had achieved 16 Grade 1 wins amongst them and a Grand National success and it did not disappoint.
Paul Townend and Gaelic Warrior set out their stall and made this contest all about high cruising speed but also with the tactical awareness to utilise his rides staying ability over his main rival, Fact To File. They went off at a pace that most of the runners couldn’t cope with, and it wasn’t that they were giving Gaelic Warrior a freebie from the front, it was that they simply do not have the gears to go with him. It was relentless from the outset and a joy to watch the tactics that were deployed to try and get the 2024 winner beat. The eventual winner was low at one too many fences for my liking, but he put it up to Fact To File, waited for him to close and whilst taking that opportunity to take a breather as the JP horse exerted more energy to reduce the gap. That was the winning maneuver from Townend as he has enough in reserve to rally and get up to the finishing post first having gained that advantage.
Gaelic Warrior is exceptional. He is one of few that appears to have the ability to cope with any trip and can be ridden accordingly. He is a livewire for The King George but that’s not telling you anything that the market won’t, given that he sits at the top of the tree at the top price of 7/4. He will have a cracking chance going his preferred direction and will no doubt have the best man in the saddle who was successful in the race last year when getting the leg up on Banbridge in a phenomenally well-timed ride to come and steal the race from Il Est Francais. Is he a bet…. Not for me, and the exertions of The John Durkan could be a negative against him. I wouldn’t go as for as to say that I would lay him, certainly not, but I wouldn’t be a player at his current price.
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The second from the race, Fact To File, lost nothing in defeat but if you think he will line up here at Christmas and can reverse that form I would seriously question whether he lines up at all. Connections are not a fan of the race and their enthusiasm for sending a high-class stayer to this year’s renewal will not have been heightened by the performance of Spillane’s Tower in last year’s event. If I wanted to play Fact To File for The King George, I would be waiting until the day of the race.
The market has formed based on what we have seen but is there anything else lurking at a price that could be worth a bet at this moment in time….
I would suggest that there’s only one horse that would be of interest who has already made a very promising return to the track this season and would fit the bill for the type of horse that Willie Mullins is likely to send over to Kempton at Christmas. We’ve seen him come to this race with the likes of Tornado Flyer and win this event and I think that Champ Kiely is perhaps overpriced at odds of around 33/1, in a couple of places. He loves going right-handed and his reappearance was over a trip far too short, yet he ran Only By Night very close and we know how That Arkle form has worked out. L’Eau du Sud, Only By Night, and Jango Baie have been mighty impressive on their reappearances this season and there is no doubt more to come from Champ Kiely over a trip this season.
He was a very good winner at Punchestown at the back end of last season when beating Ballyburn by over 6L and he is one that I wouldn’t put anyone off have a speculative few quid at or even playing in addition to a premade selection where you may be sat on much nicer prices for ones towards the head of the market who’s price now offers no value.
All in all, we saw some brilliant action this weekend and multiple high-class performances and providing they all line up come December 26th we’re in for an absolute cracker.
Who wins…. who knows, but my eggs are firmly still in one basket, and that basket resides in Seven Barrows.
