Ginger Joe assesses the effect of the Dublin Racing Festival results on the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle market.
Champion Hurdle
The Dublin Racing Festival is done and dusted, and the results have once again had a significant impact on the ever changing Champion Hurdle market. I’m going to run through some of the potential contenders and try to paint a clearer picture of how I see things unfolding when March comes around.
Cheltenham Champions Hurdle Odds and Review Post DRF
A natural place to start is with Lossiemouth (Best price 6/1) for Willie Mullins, who was a narrow favourite for the Champion Hurdle before this weekend’s Irish version of the race at Leopardstown. She went off at 4/6, but was beaten three lengths by Gordon Elliott’s mare Brighterdaysahead in a performance that simply oozed class and pure staying power from the Gigginstown runner. The race itself lacked real depth, but with the two mares rightly dominating the market, we got the head-to-head we wanted to see and it has certainly thrown plans up in the air.
I’ve always felt Lossiemouth was more likely to end up in the Mares’ Hurdle unless Sir Gino failed to make the Festival, and sadly he’s now out for the season. That did open the door to a serious Champion Hurdle tilt for Losiemouth, but the way she was beaten by Brighterdaysahead now makes me think the scales are heavily tilted back towards the Mares’ Hurdle instead.
That’s a shame, it really is, because she belongs in the Champion Hurdle and would make it a far more competitive race, and she’d still have a live chance. However, Willie Mullins will always run his horses where he feels they have the best chance, and right now that looks to be the Mares’ Hurdle.
In my opinion though, she should still be taking her chance in the Champion Hurdle. There isn’t a standout star in the division, and Brighterdaysahead still has plenty to prove at Cheltenham, so the absence of Lossiemouth would be felt in the two-mile championship. She’s drifted from 5/2 out to 6/1 for the Champion Hurdle, which tells its own story.
Brighterdaysahead (Best price 11/4) is now the second favourite, and you simply cannot deny, that her engine gives her a massive chance. She was absolutely dynamite this weekend in the Irish Champion Hurdle, with the deep conditions playing majorly into her strengths. She travelled like a dream from a prominent position, and when Lossiemouth tried to have a crack at her up the straight, Brighterdaysahead just pulled further clear and never looked like getting caught.
The worry of course, is Cheltenham. She didn’t act well there in the Mares’ Novice Hurdle, and she wasn’t herself in last season’s Champion Hurdle either. She has a lot to prove back at Prestbury Park, and at the current price, I don’t think that risk is fully factored in.
| Horse | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| The New Lion | 5/2 | William Hill |
| Brighterdaysahead | 11/4 | Bet365 |
| Constitution Hill | 5/1 | BetVictor |
| Lossiemouth | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Golden Ace | 8/1 | 888sport |
| Ballyburn | 20/1 | Bet365 |
The New Lion (Best price 5/2) hasn’t been outstanding so far, but he’s still the current favourite, and that’s understandable in a year like this. He doesn’t look like a natural two miler, neither does he look like your typical Champion Hurdler, but he’s been running well enough to suggest that he has a big chance against this sort of field.
His win in the Unibet Hurdle on Trials Day, getting up late to beat Nemean Lion by less than two lengths, doesn’t scream Champion Hurdle on bare form, but he was smart enough to get the job done from a poor position.
In what looks an ordinary renewal, that could be enough. I like how straightforward he is too, and while I think he willl ultimately be better over further, he could still be good enough to land this year’s race for the Skelton team.
Golden Ace (Best price 7/1) has done nothing but make punters look silly again. After her shock Champion Hurdle win last season, she came out and won this season’s Fighting Fifth, proving once more that jumping is everything and fortune favours the brave in horse racing. She’s now a multiple Grade 1 winner and is surely going to give another huge account of herself on the day. You’d have to be brave to say she has no chance, and expect the unexpected with the reigning champion.
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Constitution Hill (Best price 5/1) could still line up in March, but I don’t love the idea of him running on the flat beforehand. If you’re going to run him in a Champion Hurdle, then crack on and do it in my opinion. Either give him a prep over hurdles in a weak race or go straight to the big one. He’d only need to be a shade of his former self to win this renewal, so there’s a small flicker of hope there that he could get a clear round in, and if he did pull it off, the roof would come off at Cheltenham.
Anzadam (Best price 20/1) and El Fabiolo (Best price 50/1) did their credentials no favours this weekend, and for me, the winner is surely among those already mentioned.
As it stands, I don’t think Lossiemouth will run here, I’d strongly expect her to go for the Mares’ Hurdle now. I can’t back Brighterdaysahead with her Cheltenham record, and Constitution Hill has plenty to prove in the jumping department.
Golden Ace looks the each-way play, but ultimately, The New Lion feels the most straightforward option and is starting to look the most likely winner at this stage. The picture has changed significantly, and right now, I’d have to side with The New Lion in the famous green and gold silks
