Liam Firkin's Cheltenham Ante Post Tips: County Hurdle & Coral Cup Bets

HELLO NEIGHBOUR - 0.5 pts WIN

Best price of 40/1 at the time of publishing.

I am going to play two against the field in The County Hurdle and wanted to get these in the book nice and early given recent developments in this market and the contraction in price of Murcia who has been latched onto by many.

The first is HELLO NEIGHBOUR (40/1) who was 6th and just 5L behind the winner in the Triumph hurdle at last year’s festival before another good run at Punchestown when third and just under a length behind Poniros when the form was reversed by Lulamba.

He matches plenty of the trends for the race with him being a 5YO (9 of the last 12 winners aged 5 or 6) having had 6 runs or more over hurdles (9 of the last 12 winners) succeeded twice over hurdles (9 of the last 12 winners) and has had at least two runs this season (10 of the last 12 winners).

As mentioned, he’s been seen twice this season when firstly thrown into a G1 in December against horses rated 10lbs higher and was more recently a runner in the 2m handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival.

I think he’s one who’s over looked for this and I am hoping there is a very nice angle in with regard to a 7lb claim that would bring him down in the weights. Eoin Staples is a young jockey who’s going places and when him and Gavin Cromwell team up then you have to sit up and take notice.

He’s been saddled on 78 rides for Cromwell this season and that has produced 14 winners which equates to an 18% strike rate. What is more eye catching is that had you backed the trainer/jockey combination since the start of the season then you would be up to the tune of £41.88 to £1 level stakes.

It is not paramount that Staples is booked for the ride given that horses rated on a similar mark to Hello Neighbour’s 147 rating have been successful in this race in recent years with winners in the last 12 renewals having won off marks of 158 and 146 but it would certainly alleviate some of the weight he may have to carry given that the top weight’s have been rated the following, for the last five renewals:

152
156
155
152
155

I think he will come forward significantly for his first two runs and is a huge price at 50/1.

BUNTING – 1 Pt Win

Best price of 16/1 at the time of publishing.

The second play is going to come from the same race as Murcia last weekend but while everybody was watching the Mare fly home on the stand side rail it was another that caught my eye who appeared to be travelling up and down on the same spot but after re-watching the race, I would have said that Harry Cobden, would’ve been very happy with his day’s work on this ride.

BUNTING (16/1) travelled well into the race but struggled for room up the inside rail and never really got chance to build any momentum into the race and kick off the bend. To my eye, he wasn’t then overly pushed to pick up and Harry Cobden appeared very lackadaisical in the saddle and he’d want to brush up on his action before moving into the big job next season.

That said, Cobden is an exceptional jockey, that is undeniable and I wonder if this booking is a sign that Tony Bloom and Willie Mullins will have him back on board for the Friday of the festival which would be a huge positive.

Bunting was too keen at the 2025 festival and was well supported in the lead up to Cheltenham but I think he could be seen to much better effect down in trip, travelling at a faster pace, on what could be much better ground by the time Friday comes around. He would seemingly be well handicapped based off his 98 rating on turf, and if you believe in the 45lbs rule of thumb (you take the flat rating and add 45lbs to get an idea of ability over obstacles) then he could well have half a stone up his sleeve which would be plenty to go well in this.

Willie Mullins has won half of the renewals of this race in the last dozen years including having taken this prize home in the last two festivals consecutively.

I think he’s a very interesting runner for Willie, should he line up here, and I’m happy playing these pair against the field.

NAVAJO INDY – 33/1 NRNB (bet365) - 2pts EW

Best price of 33/1 with NRNB.

This is one of the best bets of the entire week!

He hasn’t been seen since his run at Haydock and I was keen to get a handle on where the land lies for Navajo Indy who appeared to be screaming out for a step up in trip last season when running on it strongly in very competitive 2m handicap hurdle events.

He got that step up in trip on seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham before stepping up even further to the 3m at Haydock which to my mind would be a stamina a test too far.

After contacting Tom directly he kindly replied to provide an update on his wellbeing and said the following:

“He (Navajo Indy) is doing fine after not being right after Haydock. We have given him time and hope to have him out in the next couple of weeks all being well.”

I loved that Tom sent him to Cheltenham in October to see how he coped with the unique character of the course and that form has stacked up well. He finished second to French Ship having given him 1lb in weight and may have got closer than the finishing 3.75L deficit had he not make a slight mistake at two out which lost him some momentum.

French Ship then backed up that victory with a win at Newbury and is now a massive 18lbs higher than when running at Prestbury Park.

The third in the race was Bowensonfire for the KDTA syndicate who was in receipt of 2lbs from Navajo Indy and beaten 1.5L. He went on to achieve a finishing position of one place better on each of his next two starts. Second at Fairyhouse before winning a 2m handicap over Christmas at Leopardstown. He myself is now 9lbs higher than when running at Cheltenham. He has then since won again at the DRF in another competitive handicap field and will go up the ratings even more when reassessed.

Add in the fact that there was a Grand Annual winner back in fifth place and that the team at Tom’s operation in Herefordshire have tasted success in the Grade 3 Gerry Fielden, Listed success with Royale Margaux as well as landing an International Hurdle has shown that they can dine at the top tables when the ammunition is provided.

I mentioned that the first and third from that race at Cheltenham have gone up 18lbs and 9lbs since, and it’s worth mentioning that Navajo Indy is up 3lbs for his effort in second place.

He clearly would appear to have a good bit in hand and what would be even more pleasing is his form over obstacles, in his career to date, and the fact that so many of these runs have come in big fields which is a big plus when thinking about a potential tilt at The Coral Cup:

• 1st of 13

• 2nd of 16

• 2nd of 16

• 3rd of 4

• 1st of 10

• 1st of 14

• 1st of 13 (Grade 3)

• 4th of 14

• 3rd of 17 (Grade 3)

• 2nd of 20

• 13th of 17 (when not right at Haydock)

If that’s not ultra consistent then I don’t know what is!

There’s so many positives with the form-lines, the course form, the consistency, and further improvement not ruled out given he’s had just the one run over the intermediate trip.

The only reservation is that should Navajo Indy have this race as a big aim for the season connections and anyone planning to bet him will have to keep our fingers crossed that he gets into the race.

The average bottom rating of the Coral Cup for the last decade is 135.6 and the race heavily favours those who are rated much higher than the 132 mark that this runner holds. What would be encouraging is that he would have got into two of the last five renewals (2021 & 2024) so it may be worth sitting and waiting for entries and the weights but at a current 40/1 with the NRNB concession and he makes plenty of appeal.