Liam Firkin Eyes Seven First-Time Occurrences to Watch at Cheltenham 2026.
This year’s Cheltenham Festival is looking very open in many of the racing divisions and that got me to thinking; Could we have have a number of occurrences that we’ve never seen before or possibilities that haven’t come to fruition in many years?
Here’s 7 outcomes that I’m intrigued to see how they play out…
1. JP McManus to finally win The Champion Chase
In the entire history of the race the Green and Gold silks of JP McManus have not been victorious in the Queen Mother, Champion Chase which is quite hard to believe given the ammunition that he’s had over the last few decades. Jonbon was second to Marine Nationale in last year’s renewal when making his customary blunder at one of the stiff Cheltenham fences which all but sealed his fate a long way from home.
His main dart at this year’s renewal does have similar frailties in the jumping department but does look a very solid proposition given the dominant performance that Majborough displayed at Leopardstown during the Dublin Racing Festival where he put the current champion chaser, and the rest of his rivals to the sword with a brilliant performance from the front.
Cheekpieces werewere applied on that day and I’ve no doubt that they will be retained for the centrepiece race, on the Wednesday. That use of headgear may also have been a reason as to why he’s jumping significantly improved and if getting soft ground conditions and an easy lead on the front end then it could be all over barring accidents.
I’m sure the McManus team will be hoping exactly that and Majborough, currently 13/8 with multiple firms, may finally land this long awaited prize for JP.
2. Great Britain to win The Presbury Cup
Granted, this has happened before but it is that long ago that it feels as if The Irish have collected this prize for an eternity.
The trophy was introduced in 2014 where Britain won this for the first two years but aside from a 14-14 draw in 2019, it has been dominated by the Irish. We are now a decade on from GB’s last victory but there’s plenty of reasons to be optimistic for a more competitive Cheltenham Festival this year.
Britain currently has every single favourite on day one of the festival but like many other years, it will be the latter three days where they will have to add to their total. There’s 13 favourites in total that are trained on British shores but as mentioned over half of these are accounted for on the Tuesday.
It’s not out of the question that Britain could get far more competitive than previous years and gone are the days of seeing the UK post a measly number of winners, as they did in 2021 having won just 5 of the races across the week which led to a 23-5 mauling by Ireland.
5/1 is available should you think that there is to be a big swing in the Prestbury Cup this year and it may be worth a second look, should this be a market you enjoy having a bet on.
3.Dan Skelton - Top Trainer
The Prestbury Cup leads me nicely into a very punchy claim that a British Trainer could knock the genius that is Willie Mullins off top spot.
Now it is a big ask with the man from Closutton having been the top trainer for 12 of the last 15 years and he has a number of horses who are short in plenty of markets.
That said, Dan Skelton has The New Lion, Madara, Supremely West, and A Pai De Nom all at the head of their respective markets. He has a fantastic record in The County Hurdle which is where Sinnatra could line up and then we start to add Kabral Du Mathan, Mydaddypaddy, Grey Dawning, L’Eau du Sud, Be Aware into the mix and without even considering horses who are less fancied, you can start to build a picture of how Skelton could get to the magic number.
The magic number is question is 6. Over the last twenty festivals the average number of races that you’ve needed to win amounts to 5.45. Below is a full breakdown of each winner and the number of races won for each festival.
- 2025 Willie Mullins (10)
- 2024 Willie Mullins (9)
- 2023 Willie Mullins (6)
- 2022 Willie Mullins (10)
- 2021 Willie Mullins (6)
- 2020 Willie Mullins (7)
- 2019 Willie Mullins (4)
- 2018 Gordon Elliott (8)
- 2017 Gordon Elliott (6)
- 2016 Willie Mullins (7)
- 2015 Willie Mullins (8)
- 2014 Willie Mullins (4)
- 2013 Willie Mullins (5)
- 2012 Nicky Henderson (7)
- 2011 Willie Mullins (4)
- 2010 Nicky Henderson (3)
- 2009 Paul Nicholls (5)
- 2008 Paul Nicholls (3)
- 2007 Paul Nicholls (4)
- 2006 Paul Nicholls (3)
I appreciate that the landscape of the game has changed with many good horses now concentrated in fewer hands and this can be seen with the significant increase of races that have been won year on year, by Willie Mullins.
Dan Skelton certainly goes into the festival with a very strong hand and he will need all of the chips to fall his way and plenty of luck will be required throughout the week but the 16/1 with SkyBet is potentially too big of a price for such a dominant trainer in Britain, who is no doubt going to collect his first Trainer’s Championship this season and one who will no doubt only continue to get stronger.
What an incredible season that would be for Dan Skelton and team. His first British Trainer’s Title and his first Top Trainer crown at the biggest meeting of them all.
Bet365
- Slick, clean interface
- Full suite of safer gambling options including profit/loss
- Market leading all customer offers across all sports
4. Willie Mullins to win a Handicap Chase
He holds the Trainers Championship across two countries and has achieved that feet on multiple occasions, he’s Cheltenham’s most ever winning Trainer, has had the 1-2-3-4 home in a Grand National, Royal Ascot winners, Breeders Cup successes and is arguably the greatest equine trainer in history.
Is there anything Willie Mullins can’t do?
Yes, he can’t win a Handicap Chase at Cheltenham!
I’m sure this doesn’t keep him awake at night, but it is crazy to think that of all the 113 Festival winners that Willie Mullins has sent to Cheltenham, none have come in a Handicap over fences.
Willie has saddled 53 runners in these events and is yet to come home in front but he does have some interesting contenders for this year and this could well be old news by the time the week is done.
His task has been made slightly easier with an increased number of opportunities to win a Handicap Chase given the changes that have been made to the National Hunt Chase and what is now the Jack Richards Novice Chase. Argento Boy and Joystick hold entries for the former of the two races and the latter (Joystick) could be of interest if getting extremely testing conditions on day one and is currently 12/1 with Unibet.
For the rest of the week Willie has left his fate in very few horses with Gold Dancer being his only runner in The Ultima as is the same for The Grand Annual where again, there is just the single dart being thrown at the race which comes in the form of Western Diego.
Road To Home may line up as a single representative in the Kim Muir but there’s a horse who is doubly entered for the week but again will be the only runner from Closutton in The Plate should he take up that engagement as opposed to the Jack Richards and I’m of the belief that this horse could be the one to finally end Willie’s curse! The horse in question is O’MOORE PARK (33/1) who is available to be backed with the non-runner, no bet concession and there’s plenty to like about him in the intermediate handicap chase on day one.
He ran a fantastic race when finishing third in last year‘s novice handicap and was clearly competing amongst great quality horses on that day with the winner going on to score graded honours at Aintree. O’Moore Park then returned to Cheltenham for the April meeting where he was no early denied by a well handicap and Skelton horse put that further enforced his liking for the track.
There’s also been some nice form this season when stepped up in trip and tried over further which resulted in a 5th place finish in a big field handicap at Leopardstown over the festive period but more notably was his 2nd to Oscar’s Brother at Galway when just over 3L back and that was no disgrace given that the winner is now as short as 8/1 in places for the Brown Advisory Novice Chase. When many are looking for unexposed and younger horses for most of their handicap during the week this race continues to be a bit of an outlier with experience having come to the fore on numerous occasions in recent years.
From the last 15 renewals a horse aged 9 or older has landed this prize on 7 occasions and three of the last four winners were:
- 2022 - Coole Cody (11 Years Old)
- 2023 - Seddon (10 Years Old)
- 2024 - Shakem Up’Arry (10 Years Old)
This could be the year that Willie finally wins a Handicap Chase at the festival and I’m willing to follow the line of thinking with my pocket and am advising O’Moore Park as a bet.
O’MOORE PARK - 0.75 Pts EW @ 33/1 (NRNB)
BresBet
5. The Irish to win The Ultima
We are now two decades on since the last Irish trained horse passed the line in front in this staying handicap chase and although the British seem to have a stranglehold over the Ultima could the tide turn for the first time in 20 years?
Backmeorsackme was a very good winner at the Dublin Racing Festival and looks to be the main contender who’s coming across the sea. Emmet Mullins certainly knows how to prepare one for any given day and if he takes up this engagement then he is sure to be in with a chance.
There are other further down the field who shouldn’t be discounted with Blaze The Way a potential interesting contender, Croke Park is a fantastic jumper as we saw during his novice season but I think there’s potentially a 25/1 shot who is lurking in this market for Henry De Bromhead and that is The Short Go.
He’s no stranger to Cheltenham and has run in many a competitive handicap at this venue and both his form and his record here makes for pleasant reading.
- 2nd of 14
- 5th of 24
- 4th of 18
- 3rd of 9
He has been exclusively campaigned at Cheltenham this season with two starts before the turn of the year and now sits on an attractive handicap mark of 131. You would think that would get him in to the race towards the bottom of the weights and with plenty of course form to his name he could have a big say in whether the Irish finally win this race again.
6. Grand Annual winner to go back-to-back
The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual dates back to 1946 and over the course of the last 70 years, just one horse has managed to go back to back in this 2 mile chase.
That was in 1959 when Fred Winter replaced Francis Shortt in the saddle for trainer, Clem Magnier and we are still waiting for that feat to be repeated.
In more recent history it has proven to be a race where the winner does return the following year but the statistics are certainly against Jazzy Matty. Over the last 12 renewals the current winner has returned on 10 occasions. None have gone on to win and only two placing with Unexpected Party going closest last year as the runner-up.
However, Jazzy Matty is still only a 7-year-old and could be one with some improvement left in him. He has only been given a 7lbs rise for his success here in 2025 and if he gets conditions to his liking that may not be enough to stop him from going back to back. He is best priced 14/1 for this year’s contest and I’ll be keeping your close eye on the weather as I feel that he would much prefer better ground conditions so should the Sun start shining over Gloucestershire in the lead up to the festival then he’s sure to be high on my shortlist.
7. Brighterdaysahead to finally win at Cheltenham
I wouldn’t be overly forgiving when it comes to a poor record at Cheltenham itself and there have been a few theories as to why this talented mare has not acted at the course on her first two attempts but I’m willing to make an exception for Brighterdaysahead.
It had been mooted that there were possible fragilities within the breeding given that we’ve seen siblings of Brighterdaysahead also under perform at Cheltenham. Most notably, Mighty Potter who had run his race before it had even begun when lining up for the Supreme and was then sent off an odds on favourite in the Turners before putting in a very underwhelming display.
Some had suggested that she possibly didn’t travel all that well across the sea to take up her engagements in Britain but she was fantastic at Aintree as a novice which blows that theory out of the water.
More simply, you could just argue that she doesn’t enjoy the test that Cheltenham presents and she was extremely weary when trying to climb the hill last season in the Champion Hurdle and almost came to a standstill in the final half a furlong.
However, I think you can make a case for both of her poor efforts here having not been given the greatest of rides in the Mares Novice Hurdle and I’m sure that is a race that if he could, Jack Kennedy would like to turn the clock back and have a second go. She was left with an awful lot to do and very little ground to do it in.
Then there is last season. I think she possibly left her season at Christmas when putting together an absolute demolition job of State Man. With modern training methods being centred around getting a horse to peak at the right time for a given day, I feel that the excursions of those Grade 1 contests in the early part of
the season made it very difficult for her to go to the well once more, just a couple of months later.
She’s had a fantastic preparation into this year’s festival and there will be no more excuses should she not deliver but I have a feeling that this is the year that she will finally get her Cheltenham win and the market appears to agree, with her priced at 3/1 and vying for favouritism.
