We are following the money with a 681/1 Lucky 15 tip featuring four of the biggest market movers on Tuesday.
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Lucky 15 Tuesday Tip
Shadowfax Of Rohan – 15:00 Catterick – 3/1 (William Hill)
Pallas Lord – 16:12 Newcastle – 11/4 (bet365)
Just Lucky Sivola – 16:20 Leicester – 13/2 (bet365)
Gardener – 15:30 Catterick – 11/2 (bet365)
Best Price: 681/1 with bet365.
15:00 Catterick
Shadowfax Of Rohan
- Best Original Odds: 17/2
- Shortest Live Odds: 9/4
- Swing: 57.89%
- Best Price: 3/1 (William Hill)
There’s a strong statistical angle in play here. Horses trained by Peter Neville in handicaps who arrive without a win in their previous six starts have a healthy return - 11 wins from 66 runners, with 28 hitting the frame. That’s a 16.7% strike-rate and over 42% placing, suggesting his runners in this specific scenario are often primed to outrun market expectations.
This one is particularly interesting from a handicapping perspective. Effectively 7lb better off than last time when factoring in the capable 3lb claimer, and now racing from a mark 4lb lower, he looks attractively treated. His latest run can be upgraded too, having met interference at the start which left him on the back foot from the outset.
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16:12 Newcastle
Pallas Lord
- Best Original Odds: 15/2
- Shortest Live Odds: 5/2
- Swing: 55.88%
- Best Price: 11/4 (bet365)
There’s a solid profile behind Pallas Lord heading into this. Horses owned by D W Whillans at Newcastle with 16 or more previous runs boast an 8-from-46 strike-rate, with 21 placing efforts — a healthy 17% win rate and nearly 46% hitting the frame. That suggests this is a yard that knows how to place its experienced performers.
Pallas Lord certainly fits the bill as a Newcastle specialist. An 11-time winner overall, he’s struck four times over this course and distance and has also made the frame in three of his last six outings here. While his most recent run was underwhelming, he had been holding his form well prior to that and is perhaps best judged on his consistent efforts before.
Crucially, he’s now back down to a competitive mark - 3lb lower than when scoring over C&D less than a year ago - and the quick turnaround just five days after his latest outing suggests connections are keen to capitalise. Given his proven record at the track and easing handicap position, it would be no surprise to see him bounce back.
16:20 Leicester
Just Lucky Sivola
- Best Original Odds: 11/1
- Shortest Live Odds: 5/1
- Swing: 45.83%
- Best Odds: 13/2 (bet365)
There’s an interesting jockey angle here. Runners partnered by James King in non-handicap races, with between six and 11 prior starts, show a healthy return - three wins from 16 runners and six hitting the frame. That near-19% strike-rate suggests his mounts in this type of contest are often competitive.
This one was notably strong in the market on his stable debut when reappearing for the season, but things didn’t go to plan and he was pulled up on his chasing bow. It’s possible something wasn’t quite right that day, and the fact that support has arrived again suggests connections expect a much better showing.
Previously successful over hurdles and in a bumper between 2m and 2m4f on testing ground, he has proven he can handle conditions. The step into fences didn’t work last time, but the application of a first-time tongue-tie could help, and a return to a more suitable setup may see him bounce back.
15:30 Catterick
Gardener
- Best Original Odds: 9/1
- Shortest Live Odds: 4/1
- Swing: 40%
- Best Odds: 11/2 (bet365)
Runners trained by M E Sowersby over this exact trip without a win in their last six starts have placed in two of those five runs. While the sample size is small, it does hint that they can outrun bigger prices.
This gelding appears to be finding his feet again since switching yards. He’s gone close over this course and distance on a couple of recent occasions and shaped with promise when third here last time, beaten 10 lengths but sticking on well enough to suggest he’s not far away. A return to sharper jumping would bring him right into the argument.
All of his career wins have come between 1m7f and 2m on varying ground, though it’s worth noting he hasn’t tasted success for over two years. That said, he’s now operating off a workable mark and clearly handles conditions at this venue.
