EV Eagle's Five Europa League Betting Tips on Thursday

Yesterday's results:

Aleix Garcia - Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt - 1/1 LOST
Moises Caicedo - Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt - 21/20 LOST
Vitinha - Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt - 1/1 WON
Arda Guler - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 23/20 LOST
Jens Hauge - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt - 4/5 LOST

Running P/L: +19.24

Deniz Undav – To Score or Assist - 1pt

Undav is in outstanding attacking form, registering a goal contribution in nine of his last 10 matches. He has been directly involved in seven of Stuttgart’s last 13 goals and has also delivered in Europe, recording a goal or assist in five of his last seven Europa League appearances. With Stuttgart’s attack flowing through him, backing another contribution makes strong appeal.

53.6% AI probability | 47.62% implied | 12.56% EV | 11/10 (Paddy Power)

AS Roma – To Win vs Bologna FC - 1pt

Roma look well placed to take a first-leg advantage in Bologna. The Giallorossi progressed directly to the last 16 after finishing eighth in the league phase and have won four of their last five Europa League matches.

They also have a manager with strong pedigree in this competition, with Gian Piero Gasperini having lifted the Europa League with Atalanta BC less than two years ago. Domestically, Roma sit 12 points above Bologna in Serie A and already edged this fixture 1–0 earlier in the season. With Bologna coming off a defeat last weekend and Roma historically strong at this stage, the visitors look capable of securing another narrow victory.

6/4 (AKBets) | 78% AI probability | 40% implied | 95% EV

Donyell Malen – Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt

Malen is enjoying a prolific spell in front of goal, scoring five goals in his last five games. His underlying numbers remain strong too, with recent xG figures of 0.13, 0.69, 0.33, 1.45, 0.74, 0.37, 1.11, 0.79, highlighting consistent scoring opportunities. He has also netted three times in four Europa League appearances, making him a live goalscoring threat again.

37.09% AI probability | 33.33% implied | 11.27% EV | 2/1 (Ladbrokes)

Matias Fernandez – Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1pt

Fernandez has hit the target in eight of his last 10 games, averaging 2.5 shots per match across that period. He now faces an Aston Villa side struggling defensively, with one win in their last seven and 10 goals conceded across their last four matches, which could offer further opportunities for the striker.

58.28% AI probability | 54.56% implied | 6.83% EV | 5/6 (bet365)

Corentin Tolisso – Over 0.5 Shots on Target

Tolisso arrives full of confidence after scoring in four of his last five matches. The Lyon midfielder has been pushing forward more frequently and getting efforts on goal, meaning just one shot on target looks a realistic expectation again.

54.82% AI probability | 50% implied | 9.64% EV | 1/1 (Betway)