Liam Firkin's Flat Season Key Race Analysis & 2000 Guineas Betting Tip

2000 Guineas + Tips

We’ll start with the main race for the 3-year-old colts at Newmarket and since Aidan O’Brien has done the media rounds his very exciting ALBERT EINSTEIN has seen plenty of money for the race.

A huge 58% of all bets that have been struck via Oddschecker last week were on this son of Wootton Bassett who has a perfect record with both his runs as a 2-year-old resulting in victory. The level of interest in him has meant that his price has contracted from 12/1 into 4/1 and it’s easy to see the appeal. A couple of words of caution however as AOB has seemingly used this race as a prep for the likes of Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy who both disappointed in this race before going on to win The Derby.

It is fair to say that Albert Einstein wouldn’t be in the same mould as those pair though and this 1m trip could be at his limit never mind the distance he would need to get at Epsom so perhaps there is little comparison to be drawn. The trip would be of concern for this event though with the Coolmore bred runner having only been seen over 6f and it’s interesting that Aidan has been training him in a hood although there’s been no commitment as to whether that headgear will remain when he lines up.

Given connections, he has every right to be towards the head of the market but I’d be happy to look a bit further down the card and although I won’t be offering up a selection in each of the five races that I’m covering, I do want to get two onside in this.

The Frankel colt ITEM (33/1) was very impressive when making his debut on the All Weather at Kempton and that performance was backed up on turf when winning at Bath in a race where the form doesn’t exactly jump off the page but he’s two from two irrespective.

Clearly an impeccable breed of horse for Juddmonte Farms and Andrew Balding has won this two of the last six years and I think there’s plenty more to come from this horse who is seemingly doing all of his best work at the finish. I think a strongly run mile will suit him perfectly and there will need to be improvement based on official figures to be getting involved in this but I can see that improvement for being surrounded by a higher quality field.

The second play in the race is going to be TALK OF NEW YORK (16/1) who like Item had his first run on the old weather and was exceptional. I’d like to pass off some of the below as my own work but the credit has to go to Oddschecker’s own, Steve Ryder who made a compelling case for both the horse and Charlie Appleby on Racing TV.

Firstly, the horse; Talk Of New York who posted a finishing speed percentage of 110% with a massive top speed of 41.3mph.

Charlie Appleby had a fantastic season with 2-year-olds last season which could mean this crop are extra strong for him this season. He had a 50% strike rate on the AW with those younger horses and was 66 from 168 overall (39% SR)

Talk Of New York’s most recent outing will have dampened some punter’s enthusiasm for his chances in this but I am very much of the opposite view where everything that seemingly could go wrong, did. He broke slowly, got no cover and was very keen through the early parts of the contest. He was them forced widest of all having to make up more ground than almost every other runner in the field and still stayed on strongly to finish in third.

That run certainly could’ve taken some of the edge off him and if getting an ideal position in the early parts of the race and settling as he did at Kempton then I think that the 16/1 could be massive.

2000 Guineas Betting Tips

TALK OF NEW YORK - 1 Pt Win @ 16/1

ITEM - 1 Pt Win @ 33/1

1000 Guineas

Precise is another who has seen plenty of support for the Aidan O’Brien yard and the master trainer seems to think that she can turn into an Oaks filly with this as a starting point for the season.

She was unlucky on her first outing before putting that right at Goodwood and she’s seen a huge 55% of all bets in the last week with Oddschecker in the 1000 Guineas market.

Epsom Oaks

Sticking with the girls and Amelia Earhart is seeing a lot of faith from punters who were most likely stung on a few occasions in 2025 given that she was sent off as favourite on five separate occasions, winning just the once at prohibitive odds of 4/6. She was beaten on her other four runs when sent off:

• 11/8
• 5/4
• 2/1
• 3/1

But yet the betting public still can’t get enough of her with 30% of bets in this market having been placed on her which in turn has seen her price contract from 25/1 into 16/1 since March 16th.

Epsom Derby

From a betting perspective this market has been dominated by three horses, Benvenuto Cellini, Pierre Bonnard, and Montreal who have all seen 26%, 22% & 27% of all bets on this race respectively.

The first, Benvenuto Cellini was a good winner of the Grade 2 at Leopardstown when sent off as odds on favourite and that was the second of two wins last season and both of which were on ground that had a bit of cut in. Given his Dam’s Sire is Lope De Vega it doesn’t surprise you that he clearly handles softer going and although I wouldn’t have suggested that it’s imperative for softer conditions but I think it may see him at his optimum.

Pierre Bonnard has clearly been flagged as one of the main darts from Ballydoyle with Aidan O’Brien quoted as saying “He’s a made Epsom horse” before going on to say that they always keep there “number 1” Derby horse to the trials in Ireland and that will be the case for this lad. The 4/1 is probably short enough at this moment in time, but if value is not a huge consideration when you’re looking at a race card, then you may not need to look much further.

Montreal is the final horse and the one who’s seen the most market support in recent days and that is most likely due to the fact that Aidan O’Brien (Yes, that man again, we better get used to it over the coming months) had elected him as his dark horse to follow for the season and suggested that there are much worse each way bets to have than the 20/1 that was readily available about him. He is now 16/1 with multiple firms and we saw last season with Lambourn and Delacroix that the perceived second string at this yard can finish as the number one in The Derby.