Liam Firkin previews the Nunthorpe Stakes and picks out two selections including a 2 point bet.
Nunthorpe StakesSee All Odds
Firstly, I wanted to look at some of the trends of this race over previous years and having consulted the website thestatsdontlie.com there are a few worth considering if analysing the race from that perspective. I’ve outlined a few of these below and listed horses that match the trends that I feel the most prevalent to trying to identify a potential winner of this Group 1.
Nunthorpe Stakes 2026 Trends
Trend: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 4 or older
This trend would fly in the face of three of the top five in the market currently which includes the Wesley Ward trained three-year-old, Bacio, who landed success at Ascot in the three-year-old handicap. The other pair that this statistic doesn’t favour is Aidan O’Brien’s Mission Central and the Richard Hannon two-year-old Pershaada.
It may not be the most sensible idea to write off the former pair of those three runners given the stables from which they are coming from and possibly hold claims even against the this trend but that said Mission Central has taken a drift in ante-post markets and doesn’t appear likely to lineup here given the direction of which his price is trending. The only winner that was aged below four-years of age, in the last dozen years (Winter Power) carried bottom weight which is a luxury that will not be afforded to the Wesley Ward runner, nor Mission Central should he line up here.
Trend: Course Form – 12 of the last 12 winners had run at York previously with 8 of those 12 having won here
This provides further negatives for the top of the market with only one of the first five in the betting having run at this course but that one horse was successful here and no doubt I’ll be circling back to him later.
Those with winning efforts over course and distance are listed below:
- American Affair
- Asfoora
- Jackajaro
- Regional
- Redorange
- Starlust
- Partisan Hero
Trend: Group Wins – 10 of the last 12 had at least one win in a Group 1-3 contest
The credentials of Asfoora and American Affair are well-known but there are a number of horses that haven’t managed to cut it at this level to date:
- Jackajaro
- Redorange
- Partisan Hero
And given that we are now whittling down our shortlist, it leaves us with just the four runners (American Affair, Asfoora, Regional, and Starlust) to try and identify the winner from a trend basis.
Trend: 11 of the last 12 winners had won on at least one occasion this season.
American Affair got back on track at Goodwood when managing to win even though his effort came on the unfavored part of the track. It was great to see the King Charles III winner return to form and show that he retains the ability that we saw prior to injury last season.
The same cannot be said of the other three who remain on the shortlist with none of them getting their head in front this season and for some of those participants this could well be the last role of the dice before heading off to the breeding sheds.
TRENDS VERDICT = AMERICAN AFFAIR @ 8/1
Nunthorpe Stakes 2026 Odds
Liam Firkin's Nunthorpe Stakes Betting Tips
Alongside the trends, I’m also going to give my own personal opinion on the race as I would like to have a play in this prior to declarations.
I was extremely impressed with how American Affair managed to win at Goodwood and I think that was a serious effort and when on song, he proved that he is the best 5f horse in training across the UK and Ireland. Provided he’s come out of that race well and gets a nice draw then I think he’ll be extremely difficult to beat.
That said, the effort from Asfoora was a positive based on what we’ve seen from her so far in 2026 and she could well push the Jim Goldie horse all the way to the line if coming forward for her effort when finishing third behind him the last day.
I’m more than comfortable with having a punchy stake on American Affair prior to this with some cover provided with Asfoora but the draw will be quite important and it’s worth noting that a significant trend from the last twelve years shows that 9 winners have come from stall 8 or lower. It is well known that there is a bias over these shorter trips at York and obtaining one one of those in a lower numbered stall is key. In my opinion, if you’re betting this far out then you are gambling on these pair getting a good draw, which may seem a bit “punty” but with an average field size of 14 for the last dozen years. I’m happy to take that punt.
AMERICAN AFFAIR – 2Pt Win @ 8/1
Wesley Ward and sprinters seems to go hand in hand and he has the current market favourite in here
