Welcome to a new series of articles where each week, from now until Chepstow, I will dissect a stat or series of stats from last season, explain how they may help inform your betting for the 26/27 season, and accompany that stat with one horse and it’s potential target for the season. Pens at the ready…

Having looked into the records from last season and specifically at handicap results from the 25/26 campaign, one statistic I found surprising comes from Premier Handicaps. 

Dan Skelton is considered a trainer who is very successful at lining up horses for these big weekend pots in Premier Handicaps but away from Cheltenham, (where he landed three of the five Premier Handicaps), the stats tell a different story. 

There were 51 Premier Handicaps scheduled last season, 2 were abandoned, 5 are run at Cheltenham, which leaves us with 44 Premier Handicaps throughout the race calendar. 

How many do you think team Skelton won?

10, 15, 20?

No, just 6. 

Race Course Selection
Bet365 Handicap Chase Wetherby Thistle Ask
Paddy Power Gold Cup Cheltenham Panic Attack
Coral Gold Cup Newbury Panic Attack
Greatwood Gold Cup Newbury Heltenham
Freebooter Handicap Chase Aintree Mr Hope Street
Fillies’ Juvenile Handicap Hurdle* Sandown Queen Maeve

 

With so many of his horses, week after week, being installed at short prices and towards the head of the market means there could be significant value in looking away from the Champion Trainer when trying to identify the winner’s of these lucrative prize pots. After-all, 87% of Premier Handicaps were trained outside the Alcester yard. 

However, I am going to stick with this yard for the first “Notebook Horse” of the series but not necessarily for a Premier Handicap. 

 

Horse: Emid’io Pepe

Trainer: Dan Skelton 

Now, you may be thinking that I’m being a complete contradiction with his first horse given that he is trained by Dan Skelton but as mentioned, the race I have in mind is NOT a Premier Handicap. 

This 5 year-old gelding could have endless improvement in him this season having been registered to the Skeleton’s on the 4th of April last year and just 6 days later was lining up at the Aintree Festival. He ran over the intermediate trip where he finished in fourth place and under 2L behind the winner. He travelled through the race like he was coming to win and found for pressure, staying on well. 

Given how little time he’d been with Dan Skelton prior to his first run you’d expect there could be much more to come with a full pre-season under his belt and he’s already shown that he has the ability to win races given that he’s done so on four occasions in France. 

Based on his breeding you’d think there is scope for him to improve when getting his ideal ground conditions (soft-heavy) and is likely to go up in trip in time but for now, I think there is an ideal target for him, this side of Christmas, and as we all know, when in search of deep ground there’s only one place to go. 

Potential Target: Haydock
Saturday 21st November 
2m2f Intermediate Handicap Hurdle

This was the starting point for Kabral Du Mathan last season as he blew away his rivals with a 12L victory. I’m not suggesting that Emid’io Pepe is anywhere near the same level as last year‘s winner but given he is likely to get his ground conditions, if participating at this meeting, is a big positive with all four of his French wins coming on: 

Good-Soft
Soft
Heavy
Very Soft

All three of those victories over hurdles came at this same distance. Off a mark of 133 he will be competitive in any handicap engagements that provide testing ground and whether it happens to be this intermediate handicap hurdle or the staying handicap hurdle, later in the day, on the same card then he will be worth a second look. 

First one for The Notebook, Emid’io Pepe.