Welcome to the second instalment of The Notebook, and this week I wanted to take a look at a trainer who will likely be under the radar of most, but has a fantastic record when it comes to reading horses in the early parts of their careers.

Back Bulgin - First Time Out

Toby Bulgin may be a lesser-known trainer to some, and especially so for those who were not born or avid racing fans in the 80s. Bulgin relinquished his licence for more than 30 years before then making a U-turn and returning to the sport in his mid-sixties.

The Lambourn-based trainer has been preparing many horses for life on a racetrack, and he’s certainly doing so with some good success. He’s had many a runner overpriced last season in the Bumper sphere.

To provide you with some reassurance that last season isn’t an outlier, we can look back across the last five seasons and see the results for yourself.

  • Bumper Runners = 29
  • Winners = 7
  • Places = 4
  • Strike Rate = 24%

 

2024-2025 Season

What is more interesting is the prices that punters can get hold of on his runners, even though almost one in four of them are winning first time out.

To give you more context around this, during the 2024/2025 season, Bulgin sent 10 runners for their first run in a Bumper, and three of those went on to win (30% strike rate), which included the mare Poetisa, who subsequently joined Willie Mullins and now runs in the silks of Gigginstown Stud.

She was sent off at odds of 20/1 on her racecourse debut when lining up at the April meeting, at the home of Jump racing. His two other winners from that season, Rue Taylor, who is now with Paul Nolan, also obliged, and her starting price was 16/1. This theme continues with the third and final victor being sent off at a massive 28/1. Had you played all ten to a level stake of £1 win, you’d have cashed in a whopping +£57.00 profit.

 

2025-2026 Season

Last season saw some of his horses sent off at shorter prices than the previous year, but had your eagle eye spotted that he had a runner first time out in a Bumper, then you could have grabbed bigger prices earlier on in the day.

Black Eddy was the first to win last season when scoring at Chepstow in October, and he opened at 12/1 before seeing market support and being sent off at odds of 15/2. 

Port Isaac was another winner who didn’t quite see the same market reaction, but was available at half a point bigger than his SP of 13/2, and you could argue that he should have been shorter, given that he dismantled a field of six runners at Doncaster when winning by nearly 6L. 

To my eye, the most impressive of the lot came at Wincanton, and this is my horse for this week that needs to go into The Notebook…

Horse: Nathannah

Trainer: Toby Bulgin

We do have to caveat some of these performances given the general modus operandi of the operation. Clearly, the aim is to have their runners fit and ready to fire on their first start, with a view to selling on their equine talent to new owners.

That said, this mare was very impressive when opening at 16/1, before market support almost halved her price (9/1) at Wincanton back in February, and there was plenty under the bonnet, although you wouldn’t have thought that in the early part of that race, and she no doubt traded at much bigger prices than the 16/1 after only a furlong or two.

She was very green at the start of the race, and James Bowen had to continually cajole her into the contest as she remained the back marker for most of it. Once she warmed to her task, she started to pass horses with great ease, even though she had travelled widest of all and covered more ground than any of her rivals.

She continued to stay on impressively and hit the line hard, winning by nearly 5L. What makes that piece of form even more interesting is that the horse back in second, Madam Speaker, then lined up in the Goffs £100,000 Bumper, where she was second to a Lady Hope, trained by Hughie Morrison. 

That is a nice form boost for Nathannah, and although we do have to tread with caution as we can’t be sure as to the depth of quality of the race until we see more, it is still worth taking note of, given that the race has, in previous years, produced the likes of My Tent Or Yours, Riverside Theatre, Tea For Two, Diamond Harry, and the 2025 renewal had participants who went on to win Graded honours last season, with Talk The Talk and Klub De Reve.

Nathannah looks to be one who would relish a trip, and it would be interesting to hear if she has been purchased privately, given she was due to appear at the Goffs Aintree Sale before being withdrawn.
I have enquired with Toby Bulgin as to her wellbeing and whereabouts, and should any update be forthcoming, then I will update you over on my X page.

Summary

When attending your local racecourse this National Hunt season and you’re considering leaving the course prior to the Bumper at the end of the card, in the hope of beating the traffic, perhaps stop and take a second look and see if Toby Bulgin has a runner in it. They certainly get a tune out of these runners in this sphere, and you may want to pay close attention to any mares that he lines up, given that 4 of the 6 winners I’ve referenced in this article came from that sex of horse.

Horses in The Notebook:

Week 1 - Emid’io Pepe
Week 2 - Nathannah