It’s the penultimate week of The Notebook, a weekly column looking ahead to the National Hunt season for 2026/27 and providing you with some statistical insight, along with a horse that aligns with the data, for you to follow, with a potential race target that connections may have in mind for each horse.

Olly in October

Olly Murphy’s strength and depth have certainly improved over the years. He previously amassed a good number of winners through the summer months, but he is now very much a permanent fixture during the winter periods and finds plenty of winners through the most competitive portions of our season.

That said, he is still a trainer who has his runners ready to fire at the front end of the season, and the 2025/26 campaign was proof of that.

Olly operated at a hugely successful strike rate last year, with him landing four-timers on consecutive days! So, first and foremost, you will want to draw a circle around the dates of the Perth and Worcester meetings at the back end of the month, as they are clearly meetings that are targeted by the team at Warren Chase Stables. It’s very likely that we are to see Sean Bowen passing the winning post in front on at least a couple of occasions.

It’s not just those meetings to have in mind, though, as I already mentioned. October 2025 was very lucrative for Murphy and, to put a bit more meat on the bone, here’s a snapshot of his success from just over 12 months ago:

Runners: 44

Winners: 18

Strike rate: 41%

This was by far and away the most productive month for the Murphy team, but there was also quality sprinkled among the winners, with Scorpio Rising winning at Perth and, of course, the Grade 2 Persian War being collected by the Martin Pipe second-placed horse, Sticktotheplan.

It is this year’s Welsh Festival that leads me on to the horse for your notebook this week, as I can see a winner from last season replicating that feat at Chepstow.

 

Horse: Gee Force Flyer

Yes, Gee Force Flyer is the horse this week, and I think he can be seriously progressive as a second-season novice hurdler. The signs from spending a day in Alcester, at Warren Chase, would suggest he could be one ready for Chepstow.

Firstly, looking back at last season would suggest that his handicap mark of 125 is more than exploitable. He made his debut on the same card as Scorpio Rising at Ffos Las when beaten by just 4L by Starzand, and that run was boosted by the form since.

Starzand went down by less than 2L when returning to the same venue, and the horse that beat him landed Grade 1 honours at Aintree. That horse was Bossman Jack, who is seriously exciting for the coming season as he tackles the larger obstacles for the first time.

Gee Force Flyer didn’t show the same progression throughout the depth of winter but certainly improved and showed what ability he has when entering the spring. He was third behind stablemate and aforementioned Scorpio Rising at Sandown, which was a very good run when sent off at odds of 20/1, and then went on to finally get his victory at Perth when beating Off The Jury by 2L.

That rival has won twice this summer and now sits 4lb higher than Gee Force Flyer on the official ratings. When looking back at the body of work, Gee Force Flyer is likely to resume winning ways off his existing mark.

Having been at Olly’s training base a number of weeks ago provided an indication that Gee Force Flyer may be one who is ready come the Jumps opener at Chepstow, with him out with a string of horses on the morning that I arrived, partaking in some light work amongst the others who were in “fat camp”.

That will have provided a good six weeks’ preparation into the Chepstow meeting, and I’d imagine that, with the venue having to switch to an all-hurdles card, he may well be targeted at one of those races in less than two weeks’ time.

With some ironing out of the race schedule still left to do, I am struggling to pinpoint the exact contest that I feel he’s most likely to contend in, but I would be keen on any intermediate hurdle race that he lines up in over the Welsh border.

Summary

Olly will likely come flying out of the blocks, and he’s already sat in third place in the Trainers’ Championship with 31 winners and over a quarter of a million pounds in prize money.

Gee Force Flyer can add to that total at Chepstow, so keep tuned in for news of the race schedule plans for the meeting and add this six-year-old to your list.

The Notebook

Week 1: Emid’io Pepe

Week 2: Nathannah

Week 3: Hamlets Night

Week 4: Gee Force Flyer