Is the 7lb weight allowance a punter's gift? Liam Firkin explores historical trends, draw biases & key market contenders ahead of Sunday's Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Prix de lArc de Triomphe Betting Odds
The 2026 Arc De Triomphe could be described in a few ways and there are many questions to be answered this weekend but I’m taking a look at the tend for Fillies in the race but firstly, will 2026 be defined by any of the following…
The last true representation of the great race?
An opportunity to see a back-to-back great?
A fast ground race and the variables of conditions?
But are we not blindsided by the fact that is a race for the girls?
Look at the success that Fillies have had in France’s most prestigious race over recent years and how this has become a new trend. It will always be up for debate, across both codes of the sport as to whether these high-class Fillies and Mares should be receiving the 7lb allowance from the Colts and the biggest question will be if there has been a benefit for the Fillies/Mares program, as a whole, because of the conceit of weight.
I would suggest that the data is overwhelmingly in favour of the girls and that there is a clear benefit but has the pendulum gone too far in one direction?
Historic Arc Winning Percentages (Fillies vs Colts)
Through the entire history of The Arc, the race winners, by sex, are as follows:
3-Year-Old Colts - 49 Wins
4-Year-Old Colts - 21 Wins
5-Year-Old + Horses - 8 Wins
Total = 78
3-Year-Old Fillies - 13 Wins
4-Year-Old Fillies - 11 Wins
5-Year-Old+ Mares - 2 Wins
Total = 26
That means that Fillies and Mares, through the history of The Arc represent 33% of the winners but if we look at more recent history, that figure rises significantly.
There was a long wait for a Filly to be crowned the winner of this race, especially following the success of Urban Sea in 1993, and the wait went on until Zarkava, won this highly regarded staying race 15 years later in 2008, but from there, the girls took off!
Recent History Winning Percentages (Fillies vs Colts)
Following that win by Zarkava in 2008 with Christophe Soumillon aboard for The Aga Khan, a Filly/Mare has won The Arc on 10 occasions, from the last 18 renewals:
2008 - Zarkava
2011 - Danedream
2012 - Solemia
2013 - Treve
2014 - Treve
2016 - Found
2017 - Enable
2018 - Enable
2022 - Alpinista
2024 – Bluestocking
So, since 2008, a massive 55% of winners have come from the girls. Now it could be argued that we had some exceptional Fillies in that time period, and that would be a reasonable argument given that both Treve and Enable won this back-to-back but even so, the trend is clear and perhaps the 7lbs allowance is a punters gift when it comes to these very high class Fillies and that should be a starting point when looking into this race and trying to identify value.
Now, a few other things to note.
Weight For Age
The 3-Year-Old Fillies also get the weight for age allowance from the 4-year-old colts meaning that there is a 10lbs gap between them. Naturally, that also plays into the hands of the top-class fillies especially on what is usually testing ground at Longchamp over the 2400 metres.
Ignore The Mares
A slight contradiction on my part but 3 and 4-year-olds are where your analysis should be concentrated. In the entire history of The Arc, there has only been two Mares to enter the winner's enclosure. Corrida in 1937 and Alpinista in 2022.
Draw Bias
The final key component of the race is the draw which had proven to be unbelievably significant in this race. 16 of the top three finishers, in the last 10 renewals have come from stalls 1-4. Over 50% of runners that place in the race are coming from such a small portion of the stall numbers.
We were not to know the draw with huge secrecy surrounding it this year, but they will clearly be some who are happier than others.
At the head of the market, Daryz, backers will be delighted as will connections of both of the Fillies who were high on my agenda, Kalpana and Thundering On who you’d think now have big chances coming from stalls 6 and 3, respectively. Diamond Necklace has to contend with the widest draw of all and has taken a huge dirt and is now top price of 14/1 on the Oddschecker price grids and will that now have an impact on which runner has Ryan Moore as their partner in this final race without the participation of Geldings.
Overall, I still find myself sat on my hands as to where the value lies in the race but I’ll likely be looking to Joseph in this renewal, rather than his father, and had more rain fallen in recent weeks over Longchamp then Thundering On would be in the book already but I’m going to wait another 24 hours but for what it’s worth; there is an indication as to where my money is most likely going.
