Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

Gstaad heads the market for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot this afternoon, after a gamble that has seen him cut from 5/1 on Thursday to 11/4 favourite. All eleven declared runners stand their ground for the Group 1 over Ascot's straight mile, which is off at 3.20pm.

Talk Of New York was the most popular bet for much of the week, but he has drifted from 11/4 to 4/1 with most firms. Rayif, the dual Group 1 winner from France, has eased from 9/2 to 6/1. More Thunder and Ten Bob Tony have both been backed into 9/1.

The ground has eased slightly overnight. Ascot reports the going as Good after 3.5mm of rain on Friday morning, and this morning's GoingStick reading on the straight course was 8.3. A dry, sunny and cool afternoon is forecast, so conditions should stay much as they are.

Ryan Moore rides Gstaad, who has been drawn in stall 11, the widest of the field on the stands' side. Aidan O'Brien said on Friday that "Ascot suits Gstaad very well", and he won the Coventry here last year. At the other end of the draw, Rayif is in stall 1 on the far side with Christophe Soumillon riding, while Talk Of New York and William Buick start from stall 8.

 

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Winners, Trends & Stats

Brigadier Gerard (1971 & 1972) and Rose Bowl (1975 & 1976) won this race in successive seasons and it often brings together the winners of the Lockinge Stakes and Sussex Stakes from throughout the season.

 11 of the previous 12 winners had already won over a mile
 11 of the previous 12 winners had at least 1 win that season
 9 of the previous 12 winners had a rating of 115 or higher
 8 of the previous 12 winners won last time out
 7 of the previous 12 winners were aged 3

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Runners Guide

Talk Of New York (9st 3lb, Charlie Appleby, William Buick)

Talk Of New York tops the betting after winning the Group 2 Joel Stakes at Newmarket by four and three quarter lengths, and he was supplemented for this race on Monday. He also won the Heron Stakes at Sandown by five and a half lengths, and he was third in the St James's Palace, a short head and a length and three quarters behind Bow Echo and Gstaad. There are questions at the price, though. He has never won a Group 1, he was beaten at 2/5 in a Group 3 at Goodwood, and he has never run on the straight mile. Appleby said earlier this year that "a bit of ease in the ground wouldn't do him any harm", and he isn't going to get it.

Rayif (9st 3lb, Francis Graffard, Soumillon expected)

Rayif is a dual Group 1 winner. He took the Poule d'Essai des Poulains by a length in May, then beat Zeus Olympios by a neck in the Prix Jacques le Marois over Deauville's straight mile, with More Thunder fifth. In between, he was fifth in the Prix Jean Prat over seven furlongs. This is his first run in Britain, and Routh says he is "completely ground indifferent" and adds, "He's won on a straight track before." He has had only three runs this year, so he should be fresh.

Gstaad (9st 3lb, Aidan O'Brien, Ryan Moore expected)

Gstaad is the top rated horse in the race on 125, and his best form came on fast ground. He was second to Bow Echo in the 2000 Guineas, then won the Irish 2,000 Guineas by three lengths. After that he was beaten a short head by Bow Echo in the St James's Palace, finishing ahead of Talk Of New York, and half a length by the same horse in the Sussex, finishing ahead of Ten Bob Tony. Bow Echo isn't in this field. His only flat run came in the Moulin on Good to Soft, where he was third at 8/11. O'Brien says "the mile at Ascot will suit him very well." He has never run on the straight mile.

Zavateri (9st 3lb, Eve Johnson Houghton, Charles Bishop)

Zavateri won last year's National Stakes, and this is his final race before he retires to stud. He won the Celebration Mile at Goodwood by three and a half lengths last time, but that was on Soft ground. On quicker ground this year he has been second in the Greenham and fifth in the Sussex, and he has never run at Ascot. His trainer says he "is in great form and did a lovely piece of work on Saturday morning".

Ten Bob Tony (9st 6lb, Ed Walker, Kieran Shoemark)

Ten Bob Tony won the Queen Anne over course and distance at 50/1 on Good to Firm ground, beating More Thunder by half a length with Zeus Olympios fourth. He was fourth in the Sussex and the City of York Stakes, then produced what Walker called "probably a near career best" when beaten a length and a quarter in the Moulin, finishing ahead of Gstaad. He's a hold up horse who should get a strong pace, and Walker says he is "fresh as paint".

Zeus Olympios (9st 6lb, Karl Burke, Clifford Lee)

Zeus Olympios hasn't finished outside the first four this year. He was third in the Lockinge and fourth in the Queen Anne after being short of room, then won the Summer Mile at Ascot. Last time he was beaten only a neck by Rayif in the Jacques le Marois. Burke thinks "he would have won that Group One in France on another day", partly because his jockey dropped his stick.

More Thunder (9st 6lb, William Haggas, Tom Marquand)

More Thunder has been second in both the Lockinge and the Queen Anne, and he won the Park Stakes at Doncaster when dropped back to seven furlongs last time. He has been a beaten favourite three times and has never won at Ascot. Haggas says he "needs riding cold" and a "solid pace, and that's why we have Needle Match in there to go forward".

Docklands (9st 6lb, Harry Eustace, Billy Loughnane)

Docklands loves Ascot, with three wins, three seconds and a third from ten starts, including last year's Queen Anne. He was also fourth in this race last year. He finished third in the Champions Mile at Sha Tin in the spring but has disappointed in three runs since, and as a six year old he is up against the trends.

Hawk Mountain (9st 3lb, Aidan O'Brien, jockey to be confirmed)

Hawk Mountain was second in the Prix du Jockey Club and third in the Eclipse, but he has been well beaten in the International and the Irish Champion. He made the running at a strong pace at York and could do the same here, although O'Brien hasn't said he is a pacemaker.

Needle Match (9st 3lb, William Haggas, Cieren Fallon)

Needle Match is in the race to set the pace for stablemate More Thunder.

Dancing Gemini (9st 6lb, Roger Teal, Dylan Browne McMonagle)

Dancing Gemini was fourth in this race at 50/1 in 2024 and fourth in this year's Lockinge, but he finished last of five at York and sixth at Haydock in his last two runs.

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Trainers & Jockeys To Watch

Roger Varian (Bayside Boy in 2022 and Charyn in 2024), John Gosden (Persuasive in 2017 and
Roaring Lion in 2018) and Aidan O’Brien (Excelebration in 2012 and Minding in 2016) have all won
this race twice in recent years.

There have been fifteen different winning jockeys in the previous fifteen renewals.

 

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Odds

 

Gstaad is the big mover, from a best 14/1 on Tuesday to 5/1. Talk Of New York has been trimmed from 3/1 to 11/4, and Boyle now go 9/4. More Thunder has come in from 12/1 to 10/1 and Hawk Mountain from 66/1 to 40/1. Ten Bob Tony is the one drifter, out from 11/2 with Paddy Power on Monday to 7/1. Coral still go 10/1. 

Steve Ryder's Queen Elizabeth II Stakes 2026 Betting Tip

TEN BOB TONY (best priced at 10/1) defied odds of 50/1 to win the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal
Ascot but has proved that was no fluke with three good runs subsequently. The Ed Walker trained
gelding finished 4 th in a tactical Sussex Stakes before finding 7f too short when only 4 th in the City Of
York Stakes.

Ten Bob Tony was only beaten 1 ¼ lengths in the Prix du Moulin last time at Longchamp when the
likes of Gstaad and Opera Ballo were behind him and this return to a stiff straight mile at Ascot
should really suit him. I find it difficult to see him out of the frame at the end of this race.

Recommended Bet: TEN BOB TONY - 0.5pt EW

Best odds of 10/1 at Coral at the time of publishing.