Liam Firkin Ante-Post Tips: Cheltenham, King George & Welsh National

Ante-Post Angle this week is looking ahead to the big National Hunt clashes this season, and there are several horses that offer excellent value over the coming weeks and months.

MIRABAD – 2 Pts Win @ 25/1

Best odds of 25/1 at Betfair Sportsbook, Sky Bet and Paddy Power at the time of posting.

A horse that we have already seen this season. If you are one to live and die by the official ratings (which there is nothing wrong with), then it is clear to see that a mark of 142 could easily be exploited by the Championship Trainer.

The listed race at Carlisle saw him receive 4 lbs from the winner, Wilful, who is still on an official mark of 153, and the winning distance was just under a length.

That, as well as the fact that he finished 3 lengths ahead of 150-rated Golden Ace and 4 lengths ahead of Rubaud, who is seen to particularly good effect on his seasonal reappearance, provides further evidence that MIRABAD is a horse with a bit in hand over the smaller obstacles. His official rating is 13 lbs lower than his chase mark, and, coupled with other extenuating factors, this suggests there is more improvement to come from that run.

Firstly, this was his first run after a wind operation, and there could be further progress from his first run to his second. The benefit of that seasonal debut, providing him with some added fitness, may also see him come forward from his initial effort at Carlisle.

Now, I know that Team Skelton has an abundance of talent in their yard, and Harry Lowes is a shorter price for the race. There is also the rescheduling of the Haldon Gold Cup to Aintree, which was already touted as an early-season target. That will no doubt look even more appealing given his success at the course last season.

However, given that he has shown so much in the infancy of this season back over hurdles, it could lead to the Skeltons taking the chance that he has unfinished business over hurdles. If he takes up this engagement, I think it will take an awful lot to beat him.

Risks are involved, clearly, but the upside at such a huge price is too tempting for me to pass up the chance that he lines up in this race. It would not be the first time the Skelton team had a change of plan.

MEETMEBYTHESEA – 1 Pt Win @ 33/1

Best odds of 33/1 at bet365 and BetVictor at the time of posting.

We have seen many horses in the same colours progress from handicap company to dine at the top table on the big race days in Britain and Ireland. MEETMEBYTHESEA could be another to add to that list.

There would have been a clear splitting of runners within the Ben Pauling yard this season. Although JP McManus will be the ultimate decision-maker when it comes to where his Jack Richards Novice Chase winner is targeted this season, there is no doubt that Ben Pauling will want to defend his King George crown, having won it last season in what was a thrilling rendition of the race.

Meetmebythesea will have to contest the Paddy Power Gold Cup, carry top weight, and win well to be considered by connections as a runner here. However, if you sit on your hands until then, you will not be getting the price that is available now, and I am always happy to get involved earlier than most.

For the record, I apply that line of thinking when it comes to handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival, generally from an ante-post perspective.

Waiting for the weights? What for?

You know the rating bands for each race, to a sufficient degree, based on historic races. You can stand in the middle of the road and wait.

You will get run down!

(From an odds-contraction perspective, not literally.)

So, if you feel that Meetmebythesea can prove he is head and shoulders above the field in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, as I do, and that Ben Pauling can have him ready for the day, then I would encourage you to get involved with me and take the chance that he lines up on Boxing Day.

I will be there and, hopefully, I will meet this lad in the Winners’ Enclosure rather than by the sea, where it will be much colder!

HAVAILA – 1 Pt Win @ 14/1*

Best odds of 14/1 at Unibet at the time of posting.

*Await prices from other bookmakers for this race.

Jaime and Josh Moore have their first big assignment this weekend since taking over the reins from Gary Moore, and they have a very progressive stayer in this field who racked up a hattrick of wins towards the end of last season, culminating in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown.

That victory meant he was raised a further 4 lbs, but he is clearly a horse who relishes these staying contests.

This ante-post bet will not be defined by his performance this weekend, should he take up the engagement in the Regal Encore Handicap Chase. However, he would be capable of a strong showing in that contest if he resumes the progression he showed towards the end of last season.

It would not surprise me if the connections of HAVAILA have bigger targets ahead, and therefore his best effort will likely be seen following his seasonal reappearance. The subsequent form of those who finished behind him in the Bet365 Gold Cup would suggest that there is more to come.

Road To Home won a beginners’ chase at Galway, with the second-placed horse from that contest, Karl Des Tourelles, also going on to win next time out.

I think the Moores may feel that they have a potential runner for a National, and it would certainly be easier to target one for which he already has a nice weight, as opposed to pursuing a tilt at the world’s most famous race in April.

For him to have qualified for last season’s renewal, he would have needed to hold an official rating of 144 as a minimum. He currently sits 5 lbs short of that, and I think the Aintree Festival may be a race they would love to give him a spin around.

However, given that Nassalam has already been to Chepstow and demolished the field, winning by 34 lengths, this may lead the new incarnation of the training operation to pursue the same route with Havaila.

Everything about their seven-year-old, who will turn eight at the end of the year, suggests that he will love the dour staying challenge that Chepstow will offer.

One thing that is well worth considering is waiting for other bookmakers to price the contest. He is now 14/1 following a few pounds being allocated to him with Unibet, but there is no doubt that he will be available at 20/1 or bigger if you simply bide your time.

So, have a little patience and wait for a better price. However, for tipping purposes, he will be registered at the available price with the single bookmaker offering odds at the time of writing.

He is an exciting bet as we enter the winter period, and during that inevitable lull between Christmas and New Year, he could provide some excitement!